made two more purchases of shares worth between $1 million and $5 million. Polis's office, not surprisingly, insists that his investments had no influence on his vote. (It was all a coincidence!) But people do not make multimillion- dollar investments in a vacuum. And Polis was well positioned to know the details of the massive bill as well as what amendments would or wouldn't be considered.
Then there is the matter of his biotech investments. The health care reform bill that emerged from Polis's committees was also enormously beneficial for biotech companies. Embedded in the complex bill were two clauses that were vital for the profitability of these companies. The first was the Therapeutic Discovery Project Credit, which provided a 50% credit for investments in biotech pharmaceutical research. Far more important was the Approval Pathway for Biosimilar Biological Products. The Food and Drug Administration gives traditional branded prescription drugs five years of exclusivity before a generic version of the same medication can be produced. But in this provision, biotech drugs were given a twelve-year exclusivity.
Many observers, like Dr. Jerry Avorn and Dr. Aaron Kesselheim of Harvard University, believed that the twelve-year period was unjustified and that five years was plenty of time. That was the position of the FDA itself.10 The longer window would, of course, be a boon to biotech investors. As biotech analyst Richard Gayle put it after the law passed, 'Biotechnology companies now have a known period of market exclusivity post-approval, one that is independent of patent time frames. This will provide investors with the predictability they crave when they project product sales far into the future for biotech drugs in development.' In the health care bill, he said, the biotech industry 'got exactly what it wanted.'11
Congressman Polis favored the discovery credit and longer-exclusivity provisions. And he made three large purchases of an exchange-traded fund when his committees pushed through the bill. He bought between $750,000 and $1.5 million in the PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome ETF just weeks after the committee proposed to extend the exclusivity period. He bought the fund at about $16 per share. After Obamacare passed, the price jumped to $20, a 25% increase in six months.
How much money did Polis make? We will probably never know. Curiously, having made these aggressive transactions throughout 2009, in January 2010 he suddenly converted his assets to a 'qualified blind trust.' As we will see later, these blind trusts are not really blind, and they don't prevent a politician from providing political intelligence to those who manage the accounts. In Polis's case, the person handling his trust was a longtime friend and large campaign contributor named Solomon Halpern. By creating the blind trust, Polis no longer had to disclose his stock transactions or profits.
Meanwhile, John and Teresa Heinz Kerry continued to trade. Along with Teva, during 2009 the Kerrys also picked up shares in ResMed—at least $200,000 worth. ResMed makes medical devices such as airway aids for sufferers of sleep apnea. The Kerrys managed to snatch up shares in the $20-to-$25 range. After health care reform passed, shares in the company surged to $34, as much as 71% higher than what the Kerrys paid for them. (Two years later, in the spring of 2011, ResMed's stock price had fallen back below $30.) ResMed was a winner in the health care reform legislation—as Reuters declared—thanks in part to John Kerry's efforts. In early versions of the health care bill, device makers like ResMed were to be taxed, starting in 2010, through an 'industry fee.' In the final bill, fees for medical device makers were delayed until 2013, and the industry tax was replaced by a smaller sales tax (2.3%). Kerry was a strong opponent of higher taxes on medical device makers.
The Kerrys also bought between $250,000 and $500,000 in Thermo Fisher Scientific, which provides products and services to hospitals and medical centers. The firm had a lot at stake with health care reform. The Kerrys bought the stake at around $35 a share. After the reform bill became law, the stock was selling at more than $50 a share—a jump of more than 40%.
While the Kerrys were buying Obamacare winners, they were dumping losers. In the final bill, pharma was a winner, the health insurance industry was a big loser. Not coincidentally, the Kerrys had been selling all their stock in health insurance companies. One such company, United Health, offers Medicare insurance. The legislation dictated lower reimbursements for Medicare procedures. Lifetime coverage limits and protection against preexisting medical conditions were removed—extremely popular aspects of the bill, to be sure, but they squeezed United Health's bottom line. By the end of June 2009, the Kerrys had sold all of their shares in United Health. They also dropped their investment in Wellpoint, another health benefits company. Six weeks later, Kerry introduced an amendment to tax generous health care plans, which would clearly hurt companies like those whose stock he had just sold.12
Kerry's profitable history of congressional trading does not begin and end with the debate over President Obama's bill in 2009. Indeed, some of his most dramatic and amazingly well-timed trades occurred earlier, during other health-care-related high-stakes legislative battles. Some of his biggest scores were tied to his knowledge of obscure matters that had huge ramifications for certain companies.
In May 2007, a government agency called the Federal Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services was looking at two drugs that were used to treat anemia in cancer patients. The agency had to decide: Did Johnson & Johnson's Procrit and Amgen's Aranesp warrant reimbursement under Medicare? Johnson & Johnson was a large, diversified company with lots of products, so rejection of its drug would not be critical. But for Amgen, losing Medicare reimbursement for Aranesp would be a disaster. The drug was commonly given to elderly cancer patients, many of whom could afford it only under Medicare.
Indeed, when the word went out that the government might end the reimbursements, Amgen shares plunged. But at least one investor avoided those losses with two nearly perfectly timed trades. On May 4, the Kerrys sold between $250,000 and $500,000 in Amgen stock. Three days later, they sold the balance of their stock in the company, another $250,000 to $500,000, when it closed at $63.76 per share. If they had waited two weeks, these sales would have been worth between $50,000 and $100,000 less, because on May 15 it was publicly announced that Medicare would sharply limit reimbursements for treatment with Aranesp. The price dropped to $54.01, or down 15%.13
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Joining Senator Kerry in dumping Amgen shares just in time were two senators who sat on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, which did not have direct oversight of Medicare but was involved in health and pharmaceutical policies in general. Senators Johnny Isakson and Sheldon Whitehouse both sold between $15,000 and $50,000 worth of Amgen stock on the same day, May 9, also avoiding large losses.14 Did Senator Kerry know the news was coming? Did Senators Isakson and Whitehouse know anything? We cannot be sure. If they had worked in the private sector, their access and timing would almost certainly have demanded an SEC investigation. Short of sworn testimony, we cannot rule out that they simply guessed right, or were lucky. Even in the private sector, they might not be proven guilty. But the timing seems far too good to be true.
A few years before this narrow pharmaceutical debate, the Kerrys went on a big stock-buying spree involving more than one hundred health care transactions over a period of several months. The end result was capital gains of at least $500,000, and possibly as high as $2 million. It happened in 2003, when Congress was debating what would become the largest overhaul of the Medicare program in its thirty-eight-year history. The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act created a new entitlement benefit for prescription drugs. The drug manufacturers were all for it, and why wouldn't they be? Under the bill's provisions the federal government would pay part of the cost of prescription drugs for all 44.8 million elderly and disabled beneficiaries. Health insurance companies were for it too, because the money would flow through them.
The new benefit, called Medicare Part D, subsidized approximately the first $2,500 of a senior citizen's prescription drug costs. En route to final passage, two versions of the bill emerged. One cleared the House on June 27, 2003, and the other passed the Senate on July 7. One called for a cap on drug prices, the other did not. The drug industry stood to gain more with one than the other, but either way, the gain would be huge. Congress went into a joint conference committee on November 21 to iron out differences. It was finally signed by President George W. Bush on December 8, with no caps on drug prices.
Throughout the process, senators and representatives were buying and selling pharmaceutical stocks that would be hurt by or benefit from the legislation. Yet not everyone succumbed to temptation. Perhaps no congressman held more stock in branded pharmaceutical companies than James Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, who owned between $1 million and $5 million in Merck stock, $500,000 in Abbott Labs, and between $700,000 and $1.2 million in Pfizer stock. To his credit, Sensenbrenner didn't trade stock during the debate.15
By contrast, Congressman James Oberstar of Minnesota quietly sold off his shares in the generic drug manufacturer Pharmaceutical Resources (now Par Pharmaceuticals) on September 22 and October 17 as the bill
