threatening.
New Assignments due 5 May 93.
ORDER END. STOP. RPX.54.30
DECLASSIFIED
5.25.92
NORAD HQ. ACTING DESK FOR WAR ASSESSMENT
NOVEMBER 6, 1988
1. RADCON SURVEY. Between 12/1/88 and 12/3/88, RADCON procedures were implemented to map the New York City Area in an effort to assess the nature and extent of the USSR attack on this target. RADCON implemented at Level Three employs aerial surveys and radiologic sampling.
As of 12/3/88, Level Four earth-sampling and ground surveys were impossible to implement.
2. SOVIET TARGETS. Aerial mapping reveals three strikes in a NE–SW line, though preconflict data suggest that an additional 3–5 warheads were directed at the same general area. Atmospheric sampling confirms total radiologic levels to be consistent with a 6–7 warhead attack strategy. Data indicate that the additional warheads detonated over water south of Long Island. The three successful land targets were NORTHEAST, Glen Cove; CENTRAL, a point one-half mile west of Elmont; and SOUTHWEST, Oceanside.
3. SOVIET STRATEGY. The nature of the Soviet attack plan is not known at this time, though it is probable that the intended target was the Manhattan Island area. Lack of precise target control may have occurred, or the Soviets may have been unable to complete their full attack. Two other urban targets were struck on 28 October in other parts of the United States.
4. ATTACK STRENGTH. Radiologic surveys suggest that three thermonuclear warheads in the 9–10- megaton range detonated with high simultaneity.
This prevented predetonation from first blast production of extraneous radiation such as neutrons, gamma and X-rays, etc.
5. BLAST PARAMETERS. Two warheads detonated at an altitude designed to maximize ground effects. The airburst explosions occurred between 8,000 and 8,250 feet and produced fireballs approximately 3.5 miles in diameter each. The third warhead was detonated at the surface.
Overall blast effects were constrained by the moderate variance in terrain, although the general flatness of the area encouraged destructive yield. Blast waves as measured in pounds per square inch, or PSI, varied by distance and terrain:
| One Mile: | 200+ PSI |
| Two Miles: | 45+ PSI |
| Three Miles: | 25+ PSI |
| Four Miles: | 16+ PSI |
| Five Miles: | 12+ PSI |
| Ten Miles: | 4+ PSI |
| Fifteen Miles: | 2.2+ PSI |
| Twenty Miles: | 1.5+ PSI |
It may be noted, for example, that reinforced concrete buildings can be destroyed by pressures of 14–16 PSI.
As a result of the high explosive yield, winds are calculated to have been over 2,000 mph at one mile from point of detonation; over 300 mph at five miles; over 125 mph at 10 miles; and over 50 mph at 20 miles. Physical damage from blast waves was amplified by the airborne dispersion of broken objects and particles.
Also, because of the close proximity of detonations—the warheads detonated between 1 and 3 miles of each other—the overall blast effects were intensified.
6. THERMAL EFFECTS. Over 25 percent of the total blast effects were produced as heat. Thermal effects on 28 October were lessened because the attack occurred during daylight with few clouds. Nearly 100 percent of the thermal energy produced was dissipated within 60 seconds.
Such radiation is produced in two waves, or pulses. Theoretically, at the high MT range, individuals have several seconds between the first pulse of thermal energy, which contains approximately 20 percent of the total energy emitted, and the second pulse. At 10 MT, the New York civilian population had 3.2 seconds to take protective action.
It is estimated that each weapon produced the following radiation calculated in calories per centimeter squared (cal/cm2):
| One-three miles: | Over 1,000 cal/cm2 |
| Three miles: | 900 cal/cm2 |
| Five miles: | 300 cal/cm2 |
