http://www.zetatalk2.com/index/zeta427.htm[2/5/2012 11:43:09 AM]
ZetaTalk: McCain's Chances
Mail this Pageto a Friend.
Gallup Daily: August 2, 2008
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109180/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Remain-Tied.aspx
What are McCain's chances? He will lose, and lose big, though until the general electorate get involved in September
and October the polls won't show this. There is a gap on undecideds, and when they choose at the last minute, that will
make the difference. Nothing will change with the candidates but their basic profiles will get more extreme and
obvious as time passes and the stress of campaigning continues. There are several reasons for this:
Economy
The well known thesis that a president and an economy in the toilet will cause a shift in what party
is in the White House will hold true. Both Bush's unpopularity and the worsening economy will only
help Obama as the date of the general election nears. Nothing will change for the current White
House between now and then, and there is nothing they can do to force a change for the better in
either the US economy or the war in Iraq.
Obama as Black
Obama as part black is not a problem as he does not pander to blacks and instead lectures them. In
fact, many with a prejudice against blacks actually like Obama because of this. He wins all around
on this matter.
Planning and Organization
Obama has energy and can campaign endlessly, where McCain gets fatigued. This can be seen in
his lack of presence in the Senate, and his need to take weekends off. The pace will increase now
that Obama is done with his trip overseas. Obama has laid the groundwork for the big push into
swing and red states and will now focus on campaigning and getting into local newspapers. In this
he will outdo McCain. As with the primary campaign, Obama laid the groundwork early, giving it
first focus, so the base for his operations and subsequent success was present when the final push
came. McCain is a poor organizer and has done
comfortable townhall meetings where he meets only enthusiasts.
Negative Ads
The McCain camp is worried, as can be seen from their negative advertising and desperate
posturing to get attention from the press. They have gone overboard, being pressed forward rather
than being held back by McCain himself as his anger and adolescent streak were triggered by
Obama's oversea trip. In the heat of debate over the 'Celebrity' ad McCain released 'The One' ad,
showing that his entire approach is to ridicule Obama for nothing more than his popularity. The
world has seen that McCain is
president.
Baiting
The McCain camp has been trying to get Obama to enter into a fray, distracting from the issues and
focusing attention on trivia, and has been trying to make it seem that Obama started the fray. But the
opposite will occur. Regardless of what the pundits or campaigns say, it is obvious to the public
who it was that started all of these non-issue discussions. It was the 'Celebrity' and 'The One'ads
http://www.zetatalk2.com/index/zeta465.htm[2/5/2012 11:43:10 AM]
ZetaTalk: McCain's Chances
along with other nonsensical negative ads. Finger pointing by the McCain camp does not change
this perception, as the smoking gun is in their hands.
McCain Temper
As Obama remains cool and keeps pointing to the issues, McCain will get increasingly frustrated. In
his past he has exploded in temper and even attacked people when angry, but knows that during the
campaign this behavior would be fatal. Thus he will explode behind closed doors and continue to
attack Obama, trying to get the satisfaction he desires which is a fight. Where he may not explode
on camera for all the world to see, his basic personality will become obvious as he will make
statements during his townhall meetings, all of which will be recorded on video. Will the US, even
sober Republicans, want someone who is by nature sporting for a brawl in the White House? Many
will stay home rather than vote for McCain, feeling uneasy about this.
VP Picks
Both Obama and McCain are holding off hoping the other goes first. McCain is so desperate, seeing
the state of the polls in key states, that he is tempted to select a woman in an attempt to get the
disgruntled Hilary supporters to swing his way. Any percentage point in a storm. Since his selection
must be done within days of the Democratic convention any last minute change will cause problems
within his campaign, and choosing a woman will cause problems with the ultraconservatives. This is
not a win for McCain, as any vote among woman he would gain would be countered by a loss
among conservatives. It is a myth that the selection process is secret, though the press has little they
can report on as no one will go on record nor even talk to the press anonymously. But the campaigns
have their own reports and use this information for their own VP selections. Obama has already
announced his preference for Sebelius but is holding off as there is no reason to announce early and
lots of reasons to announce at the last minute. In order to bring out the Republican base, McCain
needs to pick a conservative white man, and unless in complete rebellion and furious at Obama's
success will likely do so. Any other move would hurt him.
http://www.zetatalk2.com/index/zeta465.htm[2/5/2012 11:43:10 AM]
ZetaTalk: McCain's VP
Mail this Pageto a Friend.
