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1. Robert Block, “Brown Portrays FEMA to Panel as Broken and Resource-Starved,” Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2005.
2. Dale Carnegie, How to Win Friends and Influence People (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1936), 3–5.
3. College Board, Student Descriptive Questionnaire (Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service, 1976–77).
4. P. Cross, “Not Can but Will College Teaching Be Improved?” New Directions for Higher Education 17 (1977): 1–15.
5. O. Svenson, “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Driver?” Acta Psychologica 47 (1981): 143–48, and L. Larwood and W. Whittaker, “Managerial Myopia: Self-Serving Biases in Organizational Planning,” Journal of Applied Psychology 62 (1977): 194– 98.
6. David Dunning et al., “Flawed Self-Assessment: Implications for Health, Education, and the Workplace,” Psychological Science in the Public Interest 5, no. 3 (2004): 69–106.
7. B. M Bass and F. J Yamarino, “Congruence of Self and Others’ Leadership Ratings of Naval Officers for Understanding Successful Performance,” Applied Psychology 40 (1991): 437–54.
8. Scott R. Millis et al., “Assessing Physicians’ Interpersonal Skills: Do Patients and Physicians See Eye-to- Eye?” American Journal of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation 81, no. 12 (December 2002): 946–51, and Jocelyn Tracey et al., “The Validity of General Practitioners’ Self Assessment of Knowledge: Cross Sectional Study,” BMJ 315 (November 29, 1997): 1426–28.
9. Dunning et al., “Flawed Self-Assessment.”
10. A. C. Cooper et al., “Entrepreneurs’ Perceived Chances for Success,” Journal of Business Venturing 3 (1988): 97–108, and L. Larwood and W. Whittaker, “Managerial Myopia: Self-Serving Biases in Organizational Planning,” Journal of Applied Psychology 62 (1977): 194– 98.
11. Dunning et al., “Flawed Self-Assessment,” and David Dunning, Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself (New York: Psychology Press, 2005), 6–9.
12. M. L. A. Hayward and D. C. Hambrick, “Explaining the Premiums Paid for Large Acquisitions: Evidence of CEO Hubris,” Administrative Science Quarterly 42 (1997): 103–27, and U. Malmendier and G. Tate, “Who Makes Acquisitions? A Test of the Overconfidence Hypothesis,” Stanford Research Paper 1798 (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University, 2003).
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14. E. Pronin et al., “The Bias Blind Spot: Perception of Bias in Self Versus Others,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 28 (2002): 369–81; Emily Pronin, “Perception and Misperception of Bias in Human Judgment,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 11, no. 1 (2006): 37–43, and J. Friedrich, “On Seeing Oneself as Less Self-Serving Than Others: The Ultimate Self-Serving Bias?” Teaching of Psychology 23 (1996): 107–9.
15. Vaughan Bell et al., “Beliefs About Delusions,” Psychologist 16, no. 8 (August 2003): 418–23, and Vaughan Bell, “Jesus, Jesus, Jesus,” Slate (May 26, 2010).
16. Dan P. McAdams, “Personal Narratives and the Life Story,” in Handbook of Personality: Theory and Research, ed. Oliver John et al. (New York: Guilford, 2008), 242–62.
17. F. Heider, The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (New York: Wiley, 1958).
18. Robert E. Knox and James A. Inkster, “Postdecision Dissonance at Post Time,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8, no. 4 (1968): 319–23, and Edward E. Lawler III et al., “Job Choice and Post Decision Dissonance,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 (1975): 133–45.
19. Ziva Kunda, “The Case for Motivated Reasoning,” Psychological Bulletin 108, no. 3 (1990): 480–98; see also David Dunning, “Self-Image Motives and Consumer Behavior: How Sacrosanct Self- Beliefs Sway Preferences in the Marketplace,” Journal of Consumer Psychology 17, no. 4 (2007): 237–49.
20. Emily Balcetis and David Dunning, “See What You Want To See: Motivational Influences on Visual Perception,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 91, no. 4 (2006): 612–25.
21. To be certain they weren’t actually seeing both animals, the researchers also employed an eye-tracking system capable of identifying, from unconscious eye movements, how the subjects really were interpreting the figure.
22. Albert H. Hastorf and Hadley Cantril, “They Saw a Game: A Case Study,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 49 (1954): 129–34.
23. George Smoot and Keay Davidson, Wrinkles in Time: Witness to the Birth of the Universe (New York: Harper Perennial, 2007), 79–86.
24. Jonathan J. Koehler, “The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 56 (1993): 28–55.
25. See Koehler’s article for a discussion of this behavior from the Bayesian point of view.
26. Paul Samuelson, The Collected Papers of Paul Samuelson (Boston: MIT Press, 1986), 53. He was paraphrasing Max Planck, who said, “It is not that old theories are disproved, it is just that their supporters die out.” See Michael Szenberg and Lall Ramrattan, eds., New Frontiers in Economics (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004), 3–4.
27. Susan L. Coyle, “Physician-Industry Relations. Part 1: Individual Physicians,” Annals of Internal Medicine 135, no. 5 (2002): 396–402.
28. Ibid.; Karl Hackenbrack and Mark W. Wilson, “Auditors’ Incentives and Their Application of Financial
