missing. Still, he didn't have the hard data to show that it was anything other than a coincidence.
Reggie didn't have any more luck contacting someone than Kai did.
'Any signal from the tide gauge?' Kai asked, hopeful that it was just a temporary glitch.
'Not a blip,' Reggie said.
Kai told Reggie the operator's theory about a power outage.
'That's a fine idea,' Reggie said, 'except for one thing. The tide gauge has a battery backup.'
Kai had forgotten about that. Equipment upkeep was not his strength. 'It has enough juice for 24 hours, right?'
'Up to 24 hours at full capacity. Of course, that's if the battery is charged. Steve has been known to put off tide gauge maintenance in the past. It's possible the battery is dead. Then a power outage would definitely take the gauge offline.'
'So we were expecting a wave to reach Christmas Island at 9:25 AM,' Kai said, summing up the series of coincidences. 'The tide gauge was supposed to send a signal at 9:30 AM. But there was a power outage on the island that started sometime between when we received the last tide gauge reading at 8:30 AM and we were supposed to receive the 9:30 signal. And because the battery backup was not charged, the power outage knocked out the comm equipment on the tide gauge.' Despite the skepticism in his voice, the scenario was possible. Kai would have felt better if the 8:30 signal had also failed to come in, but there it was on the log sheet, right on time.
Reggie opened his mouth to speak, then hesitated.
'What?' Kai said.
'Well, I just thought I should bring it up. Do you want me to send out a warning?'
'A warning?' Brad said. 'Oh, this'll be good.'
'Brad, please,' Kai said, putting up his hand to show that he wasn't in the mood for Brad's giddy enthusiasm. He needed to concentrate.
Sending out a tsunami warning would be a bold step. The situation didn't fit any established scenarios. Kai would simply be going on gut.
Issuing a tsunami warning was not a responsibility that he took lightly, particularly because he had been on the job for less than a year. Doing so would cause a massive disruption to businesses and tourists in Hawaii, not to mention the enormous cost associated with an evacuation.
In 1994 a huge earthquake near the Kurile Islands in Russia measuring a magnitude of 8.1 prompted the PTWC to issue a tsunami warning for the Pacific region. Despite getting some tide measurements at Midway and Wake Islands that indicated a surge could be expected in Hawaii, there was no way to tell whether that wave would be as big as the 1946 tsunami. In fact, a tsunami did arrive, but it never rose above three feet. The tsunami warning had cost the state an estimated $30 million in lost productivity and other associated costs. Because no destructive tsunami occurred, the PTWC got a black eye from the public.
More recently, only two months after Kai arrived at the PTWC, he had issued his first warning based on a magnitude 7.6 quake off the coast of Alaska, but when tide data showed no destructive waves were expected, he called it off 45 minutes later. The financial cost had been minimal, but it didn't help the public trust the system. Many news programs had repeatedly shown videos of frightened residents evacuating the city, even after the warning had been rescinded. The false alarm was implicated as just another failure of federal disaster readiness, even though they had followed procedure to the letter.
A repeat of the full 1994 warning would be even more expensive than it had been then, at least $50 million. And issuing two false alarms in his first year on the job might not kill Kai's career, but it certainly wouldn't help.
'So you think we should issue the warning?' he asked Reggie.
'No, not at all. In fact, I don't think we should. I just wanted to throw it out there. But you're the one who gets the big bucks to make the call.'
Kai paused. The signal loss was a strange coincidence, yes, and he couldn't help thinking that there was some small nugget of information that he wasn't seeing that would offer an explanation for what was happening. But the raw data didn't justify a tsunami warning. Historically, the earthquake just wasn't strong enough. Even with a stronger earthquake, a tsunami was unlikely. With the previous tsunami warning Kai had issued, the one that resulted in the false alarm, the earthquake magnitude was over the threshold of 7.5, so he was able to defend his call because he had done everything according to procedure.
But in this situation, for such a small earthquake, they would generally wait until they got a tide reading showing that an actual tsunami was coming before they would issue a warning. If Kai issued a warning based on just his hunch and it turned out to be another false alarm, there would be no defense. Not only would he be criticized by everyone from the governor to the NOAA administrator, but the public would get so frustrated by the repeated false alarms that they might start to ignore subsequent warnings.
'Kai?' Reggie said. 'What should we do?'
Kai sighed. Despite his misgivings, he just couldn't issue a warning. Not yet. Not without knowing more.
'We're going to wait,' Kai said. 'Let's hope the power comes back on soon and we can get on with our day.'
Reggie nodded and got back on the phone to keep attempting to reach Christmas Island, while Kai tried to ignore the nagging little voice in his head that said he was making the wrong decision.
Chapter 10
As Teresa now saw, the Memorial Day holiday's beautiful weather brought out not only the travelers from the mainland, but what seemed like every local on the island. Waikiki was packed. Street parking spaces were nonexistent. Rachel had given them a free pass to the Grand Hawaiian's parking lot, but it was full, so Teresa and the girls finally pulled into the garage at the massive Hyatt Regency Waikiki. By this time, a discussion between her and Mia had escalated into a heated argument.
'Mom!' said Mia. 'Rachel let Lani get her ears pierced. And my friend Monica got a tattoo on her ankle.'
Teresa popped open the hatch. 'Ears are one thing. If you want to get them pierced, I'm with you. But a navel piercing? You're too young. And don't even start with the tattoos.' Mia had been bringing up the subject of belly button piercing for over a month.
'What is the difference between getting my belly button pierced and my ears pierced?' Mia's voice was headed into whine country.
'Ear piercing is so common now that it's just a decoration. Belly button piercing still has more of a sexual connotation. You're not mature enough for it.'
Mia pulled her boogie board out and slammed it to the ground.
'Be careful with that!' Teresa said. 'It's not yours. Are you trying to prove my point?'
'Mom, I'm almost 14. I know a lot of girls my age that have them.'
'Maturity is not just about chronological age,' said Teresa.
'And it's not sexual.'
'Sure it isn't.' Teresa locked the car and headed toward the sunlight beckoning from the garage exit. 'Come on. I want to see what the legend of Waikiki is all about.'
Mia reluctantly picked up her board and followed her mother.
'Lani,' Mia said, 'don't you think Mom should let me get it pierced?'
Lani obviously didn't want to get involved, so she uttered something as noncommittal as possible. 'I don't know.'
Mia heaved an elaborate sigh. 'When did you get your ears pierced, Mom?'
'When I was 16. I was lucky your Nana let me do it then.'
'Yeah but…'
'The next words out of your mouth better not be 'You're old.''
