Warn Against Crying Wolf,”
62 “Such complacency”: Robert G. Webster et al., “H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza,”
62 “The virus has evolved”: Remarks in a speech tape for Business Preparedness for Pandemic Influenza, Second Annual Summit, sponsored by the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Feb. 5, 2007.
62 “If you put a burglar”: Margaret Chan, “Pandemics: Working Together for an Effective and Equitable Response,” address to the Pacific Health Summit, Seattle, June 13, 2007.
66 “There’s a possibility”: Cindy Sui, “Hospital Staff Ill After Treating Bird Flu Victims,”
66 reached double digits: For a clinical discussion of the Hong Kong cases, see K. Y. Yuen et al., “Clinical Features and Rapid Viral Diagnosis of Human Disease Associated with Avian Influenza A H5N1 Virus,”
68 The parallels were eerie: David M. Morens and Anthony S. Fauci, “The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century,”
68 this disquieting pattern: “Epidemiology of WHO-Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Infection,”
68 “most important unsolved mystery”: David M. Morens and Anthony S. Fauci, “The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century,”
69 tremendous cytokine storms: See, for example, John C. Kash, et al., “Genomic Analysis of Increased Host Immune and Cell Death Responses Induced by 1918 Influenza Virus,”
69 “kissing cousin”: Remarks at Business Preparedness for Pandemic Influenza, Second Annual Summit, University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Feb. 5, 2007.
69 a wholly avian virus: Jeffrey K. Taubenberger et al., “Characterization of the 1918 Influenza Virus Polymerase Genes,”
69 “a number of the same changes”: Jeffrey K. Taubenberger et al., “Characterization of the 1918 Influenza Virus Polymerase Genes,”
69 more like the Spanish flu strain: For example, see James Stevens et al., “Structure and Receptor Specificity of the Hemagglutinin from an H5N1 Influenza Virus,”
69 A series of studies: H. Chen et al., “The Evolution of H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Ducks in Southern China,”
69 “a process of rapid evolution”: “Mouse Studies of Oseltamivir Show Promise Against H5N1 Influenza Virus,”
69 already become more ferocious: Carole R. Baskin et al., “Early and Sustained Innate Immune Response Defines Pathology and Death in Nonhuman Primates Infected by Highly Pathogenic Influenza Virus,”
70 If the virus continued to develop: J. S. Malik Peiris, “H5N1 Pathogenesis in Humans: An Update,” Power Point presentation to the WHO working group, Sept. 21-22, 2006.
70 though later reported : WHO, “Influenza Research at the Human and Animal Interface: Report of a WHO Working Group,” Geneva, September 21-22, 2006.
70 62 million: Christopher J. L. Murray et al., “Estimation of Potential Global Pandemic Influenza Mortality on the Basis of Vital Registry Data from the 1918- 1920 Pandemic: A Quantitative Analysis,”
70 $3.13 trillion during the first year: The figures for severe, mild, and moderate pandemics are based on numbers included in Andrew Burns, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, and Hans Timmer, “Evaluating the Economic Consequences of Avian Influenza,” updated in September 2008. An earlier version of this report, which had calculated the costs using a lower figure for global GDP, put the toll of a severe pandemic at $2.38 trillion. The study was originally published in a slightly different form in the World Bank’s June 2006 edition of
71 “It’s a possibility in this case”: Jane Moir, “Cousins of Child Victim in Flu Alert: Human Transmission Suspected,”
71 “They live together at Grandma’s”: Edward A. Gargan, “Chicken-Borne Flu Virus Puts Hong Kong on Alert,”
71 “working at breakneck pace”: Jane Moir, “Cousins of Child Victim in Flu Alert: Human Transmission Suspected,”
71 barely three hundred square feet: Rhonda Lam Wan, “Bird Flu Cousins’ Flat Behind Pile of Rubbish,”
71 they were rebuffed: Ibid.
72 a city under siege: See, for example, the following accounts, all from the
73 Fukuda had never before missed: Patricia Guthrie, “Focus on Hong Kong Flu,”
