—, 2006a, “Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus”. Foreword to Aaron Brown’s The Poker Face of Wall Street. New York: Wiley.

—, 2006b, “On Forecasting”. In John Brockman, ed., In What We Believe But Cannot Prove: Today’s Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty. New York: Harper Perennial.

—, 2007, “Scale Invariance in Practice: Some Patches and Workable Fixes”. Preprint.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, and Avital Pilpel, 2004, “I problemi epistemologici del risk management”. In Daniele Pace, a curadi, Economia del rischio: Antologia di scrittisu rischio edecisione economica. Milano: Giuffrи.

Tashman, Leonard J., 2000, “Out of Sample Tests of Forecasting Accuracy: An Analysis and Review”. International Journal of Forecasting 16(4): 437-450.

Teigen, K.H., 1974, “Overestimation of Subjective Probabilities”. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 15: 56-62.

Terracciano, A., et al., 2005, “National Character Does Not Reflect Mean Personality Traits”. Science 310: 96.

Tetlock, Philip E., 1999, “Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?” American Journal of Political Science 43(2): 335-366.

—, 2005, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Thaler, Richard, 1985, “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice”. Marketing Science 4(3): 199-214.

Thorn, Rene, 1980, Paraboles et catastrophes. Paris: Champs Flammarion.

—, 1993, Predire n’est pas expliquer. Paris: Champs Flammarion.

Thorley, 1999, “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume”. Working Paper, Santa Clara University.

Tilly, Charles, 2006, Why? What Happens When People Give Reasons and Why.Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Tinbergen, N., 1963, “On Aims and Methods in Ethology”. Zeitschrift fur Tierpsychologie 20: 410-433.

—, 1968, “On War and Peace in Animals and Man: An Ethologist’s Approach to the Biology of Aggression”. Science 160: 1411-1418.

Tobin, James, 1958, “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk”. Review of Economic Studies 67: 65-86.

Triantis, Alexander J., and James E. Hodder, 1990, “Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option”. Journal of Finance 45(2): 549-564.

Trivers, Robert, 2002, Natural Selection and Social Theory: Selected Papers of Robert Trivers. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Turner, Mark, 1996, The Literary Mind. New York: Oxford University Press.

Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1971, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”. Psychology Bulletin 76(2): 105-110.

—, 1973, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability”. Cognitive Psychology 5: 207-232.

—, 1974, “Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”. Science 185: 1124-1131.

—, 1982, “Evidential Impact of Base-Rates”. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

—, 1983, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment”. Psychological Review 90: 293-315.

—, 1992, “Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty”. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5: 297-323.

Tversky, A., and D.J. Koehler, 1994, “Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability”. Psychological Review 101: 547-567.

Tyszka, T., and P. Zielonka, 2002, “Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters”. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 3(3): 152-160.

Uglow, Jenny, 2003, The Lunar Men: Five Friends Whose Curiosity Changed the World. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

Vale, Nilton Bezerra do, Jose Delfino, and Lucio Flavio Bezerra do Vale, 2005, “Serendipity in Medicine and Anesthesiology”. Revista Brasileirade Anestesiologia 55(2): 224- 249.

van Tongeren, Paul, 2002, “Nietzsche’s Greek Measure”. Journal of Nietzsche Studies 24: 5.

Vandenbroucke, J.P., 1996, “Evidence-Based Medicine and ‘Medicine d’Observation,’' Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,49(12): 1335-1338.

Varela, Francisco J., 1988, Invitation aux sciences cognitives. Paris: Champs Flammarion.

Varian, Hal R., 1989, “Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets”. In Courtenay C. Stone, ed., Financial Risk: Theory, Evidence and Implications: Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Boston: Kitiwer Academicpublishers.

Vehel, Jacques Levy, and Christian Walter, 2002, Les marches fractals: Efficience, ruptures, et tendances sur les marches financiers. Paris: PUF.

Veyne, Paul, 1971, Comment on ecrit l’histoire. Paris: Editions du Seuil.

—, 2005, L’Empire greco-romain. Paris: Editions du Seuil.

Vogelstein, Bert, David Lane, and Arnold J. Levine, 2000, “Surfing the P53 Network”. Nature 408: 307-310.

Voit, Johannes, 2001, The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets. Heidelberg: Springer.

von Mises, R., 1928, Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik und Wahrheit.Berlin: Springer. Translated and reprinted as Probability, Statistics, and Truth. New York: Dover,1957.

von Plato, Jan, 1994, Creating Modern Probability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

von Winterfeldt, D., and W. Edwards, 1986, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Wagenaar, Willern, and Gideon B. Keren, 1985, “Calibration of Probability Assessments by Professional Blackjack Dealers, Statistical Experts, and Lay People”. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 36: 406-416.

—, 1986, “Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts”. In Erik Hollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, and David D. Woods, Intelligent Design Support in Process Environments. Berlin: Springer.

Waller, John, 2002, Fabulous Science: Fact and Fiction in the History of Scientific Discovery. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Wallerstein, Immanuel, 1999, “Braudel andInterscience: A Preacher to Empty Pews?' Paper presented at the 5th Journees Braudeliennes, Binghamton University, Binghamton, N.Y.

Добавить отзыв
ВСЕ ОТЗЫВЫ О КНИГЕ В ИЗБРАННОЕ

0

Вы можете отметить интересные вам фрагменты текста, которые будут доступны по уникальной ссылке в адресной строке браузера.

Отметить Добавить цитату