accordance with our ‘obligations’ under the SinoPac treaty.” He used his fingers to put quotation marks around the word “obligations,” a cynical look on his face. “Of course the Americans are also dipping that same old tea bag into their hot water, and so the table will soon be set for some very uncomfortable company in these waters.”
“It appears so, sir,” said Fedorov. “I’ve been watching for the clear warning signs we were privileged to learn about from that Australian newspaper. We’ve already avoided one tripwire when we spared the Key West, and I suppose that was mutual, as they could have put torpedoes into us long before Tasarov’s equipment came back on-line and we knew the sub was even there. Yet it looks like that may have only bought us a brief respite. The other warning signs are shaping up in the news now like a bad storm on the horizon.”
“Quite so,” said Volsky. “We received word this morning that the Chinese are lighting the fires under that old carrier they bought some years ago. The Liaoning is blooming on infrared and getting ready to put out to sea from Dialan. We’ve seen deliveries of additional J-15 fighters on satellite, and their new J-20s. They’re putting together a strong flotilla this time. This was the next major incident mentioned in that newspaper, was it not?”
“Yes, sir,” said Fedorov. “Yet the spin on that report in the article we found seemed to indicate that the American submarine that sunk the Liaoning did so in reprisal for the loss of the Key West. We’ve already re-written that part of the story.”
“Perhaps, but I tend to think this attack on Liaoning was also meant to send a strong message to the Chinese not to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.”
“Yes, sir, but it would be an alarming way to do so. A telephone would serve just as well, or a microphone at the UN.”
“Very true,” Volsky smiled. “Perhaps the Americans will act intelligently in this situation and this attack will not occur. But remember Dostoyevsky: it takes something more than intelligence to act intelligently. I wonder if the Americans have that missing factor in this situation. They’ve had their way on the world stage since the end of World War Two. They won’t like the Chinese starting to throw their weight around, and may act stupidly.”
“Well it seems we may have only bought ourselves a couple week’s delay in the course of events, sir. That article stated that the Liaoning sunk on September 7th, and here it is weeks later on the 21st and it has not yet left Dialan. CV Eisenhower is presently in the Strait of Malacca and approaching Singapore. It was supposed to have been sunk a week ago, so events are running about two weeks late. That time has been filled by the incident in the Diaoyutai Island group and this war of words in the UN. Unfortunately, it may have worsened the situation. There was no mention of that incident in that newspaper we found, but now the Japanese are also involved. That means the US is obligated by two treaties. This may compel them to take stronger action.”
“The question is whether the Americans will attack Liaoning this time,” said Karpov. “If they do then the dominoes are falling as before. But even if they do not attack the ship, I think these dominoes are going to fall another way.”
“Correct,” said Volsky. “This is why there may be some wisdom in what Moscow wants for the moment, strange as that may sound. If we make a strong show of force now, it might convince the Americans that they will have to deal with us along with the Chinese. It could give them pause, and perhaps allow time for negotiations. I have already spoken with their Admiral Richardson and expressed my sentiments on the matter. He seems a reasonable man, but may soon be compelled to act by the civilian leadership over there, just as I am now.”
“There was news today that their Admiral Ghortney may be named Fleet Admiral and replace him,” said Fedorov. “That is very rare event to see a five star Admiral there. It only happens during wartime.”
“Yes, the Americans have sent a strong signal with this move. Richardson came up through their nuclear propulsion division, but Ghortney is a carrier man, a fighting Admiral. Let us hope the Chinese get the message. We certainly would, but they haven’t had a nice long eighty year cold war with the Americans. We have instincts and understand the nuances of an adversarial relationship like that. The Chinese may not yet know how to play the game. They have made their first move by pushing a pawn out to challenge the Japanese for those useless islands, but it is clear they now mean to post a strong knight on Taiwan. The Americans will play out the Ruy Lopez, of course. And post a Bishop with their carrier battlegroups holding a knife to that knight’s neck.” Volsky was referring to the famous Ruy Lopez chess opening where a white bishop immediately sortied to challenge the black knight. “But as for the moves we must now make, and the message we must send, I’m afraid no one is getting any sleep at the RVSN.” He was referring to Russia’s strategic missile command center. “The missile fields of Svobodnyy may soon be warming up the silos. Hopefully it will not come to that any time soon, but in the near term I will have some orders for you now. I hope the ship is seaworthy, Mister Karpov.”
“We’ve done a great deal in the last week, sir. Byko has had men in the water every day reinforcing that hull patch, and we’ve done more metal work from the inside. The Fregat system is up and running again, and they’ve mounted a new sensor on the top mast, though they still have a lot of work to do there before it’s functional. As for the aft citadel, I’m afraid all we could do was clear the wreckage, clean it up, and throw a coat of paint over it. They put up some bare frame steel beams to support a new roof and laid down some metal plating there to keep out the elements, but there’s no armor to speak of. The space is just being used for storage and other equipment. The damage aft from that bomb hit we took has been patched over, but we still have no fire control system for the Klinok silos there, so we’ll be a little light on SAMs for that system. I told them to load the missiles anyway. We can always move them, and Rodenko is seeing about cross circuiting with the forward fire control radars. To compensate, they replaced our S-300s with a nice new upgrade.”
“The S-400s?”
Karpov nodded in the affirmative. “All three range variants.” The newest Russian ship-based air defense system, S-400F Triumf, was a ‘suite’ of air defense missiles that utilized the new long-range 40N6 missile effective out to 400 kilometers, 250 miles, with a bigger 180kg warhead.
“That will be an unpleasant surprise for the Americans,” said the Admiral.
“Indeed, sir. As for the rest, we’ve completed missile reloads for the Moskit-IIs and other SSMs late last night and they are moving away the cranes.”
“Then you will be ready to put to sea directly?”
“The ship is ready, sir.”
Fedorov had a troubled look on his face and spoke up, haltingly at first, but gaining more resolve as he went. “Sir… I have a request to make. Are you aware of the incident with Markov over at the test bed center?”
“The missing man? Yes, Dobrynin reported it, but I have been too busy to follow up. I had him seal off that facility, and I suspect you have been doing some digging on the matter, right Fedorov?”
“I have, sir.” He told the Admiral what he had discovered about the changed passage in the naval history chronology, and his thoughts about Orlov. Karpov folded his arms, thinking they had put this to rest, but bearing with the situation as Fedorov had his say.
“Very mysterious,” said Volsky. “You suspect the British found that magazine article and cancelled their operation, and then your book changed? That is somewhat disturbing if it is true.”
“Indeed, sir, but only one book changed-the one I bought in the city when we arrived. My original book is just as it was.”
“What does that mean, Fedorov?”
“It means that we remain in a privileged position sir. We are unaffected by the changes in the history, at least this is what I believed at first. But then I discovered something else. Another crewman went missing the same day Markov vanished, a matoc named Yolkin in supply. He went into town to fill an order for Martinov and never returned.”
“I see,” said Volsky. “Well as much as I hate to suggest it, this may be a simple AWOL, Mister Fedorov. Who knows why this man was missing? It could be a girlfriend, or some other matter that sent him off.”
“Possibly, sir, but I did some further research. Inspector Kapustin was somewhat perturbed when he discovered they had no records in Moscow for any of the men we listed as casualties. Well we must now add yet another man to that list-Yolkin. I checked with Moscow on him as well. There is no record that such a man was ever signed on to our active duty roster.”
“But we’re sitting here discussing the man,” said Volsky. “I remember him, short, a little heavy set, and his nose was always red from the cold when we were up north.”
“Yes, and the men in his section remember him as well, sir. But there is no longer a physical record of him, not even in the backup of the data we made before we purged our logs and files. It’s changed, sir, just like the book. It was made after we shifted forward, and did not come from the world we left behind in Severomorsk. I
