to a fundamentalist group. It was opportunistic. If they’d been planning a kidnap from the start, I don’t think they’d have used the IED.’

‘I’m missing something here,’ said Shepherd. ‘Are the guys who took Geordie criminals or fundamentalists?’

‘Almost certainly criminals,’ said Muller. ‘Or at least guys who are motivated by money. They would have sold Geordie on to the fundamentalists.’

‘So why are criminals setting off IEDs?’ asked Shepherd.

‘Because there are bounties on offer,’ said Muller. ‘There’s a whole load of wealthy fundamentalists out there funding the trouble. They’re the same guys who pay off the families of suicide-bombers. The going rate is three thousand dinars if they toss a hand grenade at an infidel. That’s about three dollars. They get two hundred thousand dinars if they fire an RPG and up to a million if they take out a vehicle with an IED. The guys who took Geordie were after the million, but when they saw they had a live foreigner they knew they’d be able to get even more.’

‘But there was no ransom demand after they took him?’ said the Major.

‘The first I heard was the video on al-Jazeera,’ said Muller. ‘It was never a question of money. We’ve offered a reward for his safe return but we’ve had no response. It’s purely political.’

‘There’s no way that your company can negotiate for his release?’ asked Armstrong. He flicked open his pack of Marlboro, tossed a cigarette into the air, caught it between his lips, then lit it.

Muller shook his head. ‘There’s no one to negotiate with,’ he said. ‘It’s a fucking minefield over there, literally and figuratively. There’s no central organisation we can deal with, and we’ve no idea who has any sort of influence on the various groups. The militants are in a state of constant flux, too. I liken it to a virus, constantly evolving. We have a hard time keeping track of who’s who. The Holy Martyrs of Islam only came to light when they kidnapped the Lake boy. The main group out there is called Al-Qaeda In Iraq, and used to be led by a Jordanian, Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. They killed an Egyptian envoy and a couple of Algerian diplomats a while back. Al-Zarqawi was killed some time ago but his group is still active. Thing is, they usually target the hostages they take, but it looks as if Geordie’s abduction was opportunistic – they blasted his vehicle and he could easily have died, so we don’t think al-Zarqawi’s mob’s behind it. But there are dozens of other groups out there who are just as dangerous. Al-Jaysh al-Islami fi Iraq, The Islamic Army in Iraq kidnapped an American recently; seized two French journalists and killed an Italian in 2004. They’ve probably butchered a dozen people in the last three years. The Ansar al-Sunnah Army killed a Japanese security manager and a Turkish contractor. The Islamic Army of Iraq seized two French journalists, and killed a dozen Nepalese workers. The al-Saraya Mujahideen took a group of Japanese and Italians two years ago. Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, which translates as Unity and Holy War, has abducted and decapitated seven civilian contractors. The Green Battalion killed an Italian security guard. The Holders of the Black Banners have been taking hostages but so far haven’t killed any. Ditto the Islamic Movement for Iraq’s Mujahideen. Those are the groups that issue the demands and perform the executions, but they rarely carry out the initial kidnappings.’

‘Criminal gangs, right?’ said Shepherd.

‘Exactly. The insurgents who captured Geordie have probably passed him on to one of the militant groups. Probably got money for him.’

‘If we can get to them, could we pay them off?’ asked Shepherd.

‘Almost certainly not,’ said Muller. ‘I’m sorry, guys, but these bastards aren’t in it for the money. We’ve put the word out that we’ll pay half a mill for his return, but it won’t do any good. Between you and me and these four walls, the reward is just public-relations bullshit.’

‘Is there any way of telling which side this group is on?’ asked Shepherd.

‘They’re almost certainly Sunnis,’ said Muller. ‘They pretty much ran Iraq when Saddam was in charge. Most of the Sunni clerics in Iraq regard the jihad as a legitimate reaction to what they see as the American invasion of their country whereas the Shias tend to regard the Americans as a temporary presence. So the attacks on the coalition troops tend to be from Sunni insurgents. The Shias make up most of the Iraqi Army and police force, which is why there are so many attacks against them. More than thirty thousand dead so far.’

‘What’s been done on the ground?’ asked Shortt, rubbing his moustache.

‘My guys are gathering intel. The Blackwater boys are on the case. We have a number of shared contracts and I’ve got a pretty good relationship with their top brass. But once they’re dug in, the militants aren’t going to put their heads above ground until Geordie’s dead.’ He pulled a face as if he had a sour taste in his mouth. ‘I’m sorry, guys, it doesn’t look good.’

‘What about the military?’ said Armstrong.

‘They’re looking, but you have to know what it’s like out there. The American troops ride around in convoys and hardly ever get out of their Humvees. The locals are on the ground, but with the best will in the world they’re not going to stumble across Geordie. Our best bet is going to be human intel, either an informer or someone who gets hauled in for something else and wants to cut a deal.’

‘Yeah, or maybe we could call in a psychic,’ said Shortt, bitterly.

‘Easy, Jimbo,’ said the Major. ‘No need to go shooting the messenger. John’s just telling us the way things stand.’

‘I’m heading straight back there,’ said Muller. ‘I wanted to brief you guys, and I’m paying a courtesy call on Geordie’s brother. But then I’ll be in Baghdad until this is over. One way or the other.’

‘Let’s suppose we identify the guys who are holding him,’ said the Major. ‘What are our options?’

‘If we know who they are, we can reach out to them through groups they might be sympathetic to. Religious figures, for instance. It’s a question of who should make the approach.’

‘Has that worked in the past?’ asked Shepherd.

‘A few times,’ said Muller. ‘It depends on the agenda of the hostage-takers. Sometimes they’ll make more capital out of showing they can be reasonable. Or it could be seen as a way of boosting the status of someone sympathetic to their aims. Like I said, it’s a minefield.’

A mobile phone rang. Shepherd winced and fished his two out of his jacket pocket. ‘Sorry, I’ve got to take this,’ he said, and hurried out of the room.

‘That Graham May?’ asked a voice. Youngish, a nasal Birmingham whine.

‘Who wants to know?’ said Shepherd, shutting the door behind him.

‘A friend of a friend said you might be able to supply us with what we need.’

‘Do I know you?’

‘No, but I’ve got the cash.’

‘Who gave you my number?’ asked Shepherd. He was an underworld arms dealer and they were suspicious of anyone they hadn’t dealt with before.

‘A friend of mine,’ said the voice.

‘Yeah, well, unless he’s a friend of mine, and a bloody good one at that, we’re going to end this conversation right now.’

‘You are May, right?’

‘Like I said, who the hell are you?’

‘My name’s…’ the voice hesitated ‘… Tom.’

‘Tom?’

‘Yeah, Tom.’

‘Tom, Tom, the piper’s son?’

‘What?’

‘I don’t know anyone called Tom. This conversation is over-’

‘Wait! Wait!’ said the man, panicking.

Shepherd smiled to himself. ‘Tom’ was behaving like a rank amateur.

‘The man who gave me your name said I wasn’t to tell you who he is.’

‘That makes no sense at all,’ said Shepherd.

‘He gave me your number and your name.’

‘And what is it you want?’

‘To buy some gear from you. I already said.’

‘I know that, you moron. I meant what exactly do you want to buy?’

‘I want to talk to you, in person.’

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