disagreed with Kennan, though, “I simply didn’t bother to waste the time to argue. It didn’t amuse me to do so.”29
IV.
While the Polish crisis was developing that summer, Kennan composed a long essay—the final version came to about twelve thousand words—in which he sought to compress what he knew about Russia generally, and Stalin’s Russia in particular. He submitted it, with some diffidence, to Harriman’s aide: “The Ambassador may want to glance over it. I doubt that he would care to read the whole thing. It is just what he would call ‘batting out flies.’” But Kennan’s hopes for the paper were higher than that: “Conscience forced me . . . to make this statement at least available to whose who had responsibility for the formulation of American policy. It would be up to them, then, to draw the logical conclusions, if by chance they should be interested.”30
Entitled “Russia—Seven Years Later,” the essay began by pointing out that the residents of a country, like sailors at sea, had little perception of the currents upon which they were floating. “This is why it is sometimes easier for someone who leaves and returns to estimate the speed and direction of movement, to seize and fix the subtleties of trend.” Kennan had used this argument to justify writing about the United States after visiting it—even if briefly—from abroad. It was also why “no foreign observer should ever be asked to spend more than a year in Russia without going out into the outside world for the recovery of perspective.”
The war, Kennan acknowledged, had left the Soviet Union weakened, with some twenty million of its people killed and the destruction of perhaps 25 percent of its fixed capital.31 Those losses would be offset, however, by the absorption of new populations to the west—the territorial gains Stalin had demanded and his allies had tacitly granted—together with the relocation and massive expansion of heavy industry required to repel Hitler’s invasion. When set against the coming collapse of Nazi Germany, these would make the U.S.S.R., whether for good or ill, “a single force greater than any other that will be left on the European continent when this war is over.”
That gave its internal configuration international significance. In seeking to map this, Kennan considered first “the spiritual life of the Russian people,” at once “the most important and the most mysterious of all the things that are happening in the Soviet state.” No shepherd ever guarded a flock more carefully than the Kremlin watched “the souls of its human charges,” and they responded with amiable acquiescence: “Bade to admire, they applaud generously and cheerfully. Bade to abhor, they strike a respectful attitude of hatred and indignation.” There was nothing new in such dissembling: Russians had long considered it “a national virtue.” It meant, though, that Soviet leaders could never really know what their people were thinking. “The strength of the Kremlin lies largely in the fact that it knows how to wait. But the strength of the Russian people lies in the fact that they know how to wait longer.”
Culture, in the meantime, was stagnating. The Bolsheviks’ triumph had stimulated creative minds, especially those of Jewish intellectuals: “It was their restless genius which contributed most to the keen and analytical quality of Soviet thought and Soviet feeling in the years immediately following the revolution.” But the Jews suffered disproportionately from Stalin’s purges, and now their influence was almost gone. In its place was a chauvinistic “cult of the past” that smothered innovations connected with the freedom of the spirit, the dignity of the individual, and the critical approach to human society. Only when Soviet power waned would Russian culture again give off those “effervescences of artistic genius” with which it had once “astounded the world.”
Politics, in such a society, could hardly exist: as in most authoritarian states, there was only a struggle to reach the ruler and to control his sources of information. Yet Stalin’s advisers knew little more than he about the outside world. Their judgments might occasionally correspond with reality, but these people were as often as not “the victims of their own slogans, the slaves of their own propaganda.... God knows what conclusions they draw from all this, and what recommendations they make on the basis of those conclusions.”
For this reason, Western concepts of collective security could only seem “naive and unreal” in Moscow. Soviet leaders paid lip service to these principles when they wanted military assistance from the United States and Great Britain, but with the second front in place, they no longer needed to observe “excessive delicacy.” Their own priorities now took precedence, and these amounted simply to power. The form it took and the methods by which it was achieved were secondary issues: Moscow didn’t care whether a given area was “communistic” or not. The main thing was that it should be subject to Moscow’s control. The U.S.S.R. was thus committed to becoming “the dominant power of Eastern and Central Europe” and only then to cooperation with its Anglo-American allies. “The first of these programs implies taking. The second implies giving. No one can stop Russia from doing the taking, if she is determined to go through with it. No one can force Russia to do the giving, if she is determined not to go through with it.”
Understanding the Soviet Union, Kennan insisted, would require living with contradictions. Russians were used to “extreme cold and extreme heat, prolonged sloth and sudden feats of energy, exaggerated cruelty and exaggerated kindness, ostentatious wealth and dismal squalor, violent xenophobia and uncontrollable yearning for contact with the foreign world, vast power and the most abject slavery, simultaneous love and hate for the same objects.” Their life, hence, was not one of harmonious, integrated elements but an ever-shifting equilibrium between conflicting forces. No proposition about the U.S.S.R. could make sense “without seeking, and placing in apposition, its opposite.” It would also be necessary to realize that for the Soviet regime there were no objective criteria of right and wrong, or even of reality and unreality. Bolshevism had shown the possibility of making people “feel and believe practically anything.” Even an outsider, thrust into such a system, could easily become “the tool, rather than the master, of the material he is seeking to understand.”
Few Americans, Kennan was sure, would ever grasp this. Most would continue to wander about in a maze of confusion, with respect to Russia, not dissimilar to that confronting Alice in Wonderland. For anyone who did penetrate the mysteries, there would be few rewards. The best he could hope for would be “the lonely pleasure of one who stands at long last on a chilly and inhospitable mountaintop where few have been before, where few can follow, and where few will consent to believe that he has been.”
What Harriman thought of Kennan’s essay is not clear, although he carried a copy with him when he returned to Washington in October 1944. Probably as a result, other copies wound up in the State Department files and in the papers of Harry Hopkins. Kennan was “puzzled and moderately disappointed” by Harriman’s silence. He could understand why the ambassador might not wish to comment on content, since it was “politically unacceptable if not almost disloyal, in the light of the public attitude of our own Government.” But “I did think he might have observed, if he thought so, that it was well written. I personally felt, as I finished it, that I was making progress, technically and stylistically, in the curious art of writing for one’s self alone.”32
That was a shrewd assessment. “Russia—Seven Years Later” was impressive for the way it used the past in order to see the future. Contrary to what almost everyone else assumed at the time, Kennan portrayed the Soviet Union as a transitory phenomenon: it was floating along on the surface of Russian history, and currents deeper than anything Marx, Lenin, or Stalin had imagined would ultimately determine its fate. Decades before the documents opened, Kennan anticipated what they would reveal about the leadership’s ignorance of the outside world. His list of the intellectual adjustments Americans would have to make to understand the U.S.S.R. foreshadowed George Orwell’s dramatization of them, five years later, in his great novel
But as policy prescription, the paper failed. It was far too long and hence too discursive: if Harriman did try to slog through its twenty single-spaced legal-sized typed pages, his eyes probably glazed over when Kennan meandered off into Byzantine influences on Russian architecture, or nineteenth-century Russian music, or the complaint that “the last good novel was written—let me see—at least a decade ago.” Nor was Kennan’s argument
