“Yes, General?”
Gen. Roland Atkinson, the Joint Chiefs’ representative, pointed a long, bony finger straight at Hurley.
“Look, Ed, what’s your best guess about where that damned place is heading? I mean… hell, is this Vorster character going to be around long enough for us to really worry about?”
Forrester nodded to himself. The general had a good point.
Hurley looked somber.
“I’m afraid things are going to get a lot worse.
South Africa was just starting to build up some goodwill abroad as reforms were made. This reversal is going to cost them. Remember what happened when China changed horses?”
Heads nodded gingerly. Tiananmen Square was still a sore point for the administration.
“Unfortunately, we don’t know just what Vorster has planned. He’s
certainly surprised us with this complete revers al of previous government policy. ” Hurley shook his head.
“It’s hard to predict the effects when you don’t even know what the causes will be.”
Forrester tried to pin him down.
“C’mon, Ed. We’ve seen what Vorster is like. We’ve seen those police sweeps. And now they’re bringing the Army into it. I think his ultimate aims are pretty clear. He seems damned determined to bring back the ‘good old days’ of total apartheid. Assume that’s what he’s after… what happens then?”
Nicholson spoke up. The CIA director looked faintly ill.
“Massive instability, Mr. Vice President. Despite PretorWs ban and bloody crackdown, our intelligence sources confirm that the ANC and other opposition groups are rapidly growing in strength and organization. Their guerrilla organization is rebuilt and is now attracting a lot of new recruits. Vorster’s pushed a lot of more moderate blacks into the arms of anybody with guns and the guts to use them.”
He stopped talking and turned toward Hurley.
The assistant secretary of state was quiet for a moment longer, obviously evaluating his response.
“Director Nicholson is right. We can expect to see many more deaths, mostly black, as the violence mounts. ” He took a deep breath.
“Then, at some point, a general revolt. The black population decides they’ve got nothing to lose and just starts a civil war. Forget a ‘people power’ revolt like the Philippines. This would be very bloody.
And there’s no guarantee the blacks could win. The whites have tremendous advantages-both organizationally and militarily.”
Forrester nodded somberly. He’d seen the reports on South Africa’s
Defense Force. At full mobilization, it could put three hundred thousand men in the field-well-trained troops equipped with thousands of armored cars, highly sophisticated field artillery, close-support aircraft, and grim determination.
Hurley sighed.
“This wouldn’t be an organized revolution like Romania, with a single, powerful resistance group. The ANC, the Zulu Inkatha party, and the Pan-Africanist Congress would all be fighting each other as well as the whites.
We’d probably end up with something like Beirut, but spread all over the southern tip of Africa-not just confined to a single city. “
The Commerce Department representative looked appalled.
“Jesus, if that happens, gold prices would go through the roof. That would crucify the value of the dollar. ” He stared down at the table.
“Our balance of payments is bad enough now. It could get really bad.”
The others around the table knew exactly what he meant. Higher unemployment, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and the very real risk of a global trade war that could spark a new Great Depression.
Forrester glanced at Nicholson.
“What about strategic minerals?”
The CIA director arched an eyebrow.
“Spot shortages, of course. Maybe something worse, depending on how the other suppliers like the Soviet Union react.”
Forrester asked Hurley, “One final question. How long before the lid comes off?”
Ed Hurley looked worried, a little like a caged animal.
“There are so many unknowns, sir. I wouldn’t even begin
The Vicc President spoke reassuringly.
“C’mon, Ed, nobody’s going to write it down. Can you at least put limits on it?”
“It might be years, sir. The black population of South Africa existed for years under apartheid without revolting. They will need some intolerable situation to push them over the edge. With a loose cannon like Vorster, that might happen tomorrow. Other than those general thoughts, I really can’t say. 11
Forrester shook his head wearily and looked around the table.
“All right.
We’re all agreed that open civil war in South Africa would be a disaster for the United States and for all our major allies. It would drive up prices of strategic minerals and other critical items. The cost of everything using them would go up-and that’s about everything that’s made in this country. Aside from those costs, the price of gold
rising sharply could trigger panics and buying sprees. A civil war in
South Africa could bring on a massive depression here in the U.S.” maybe worldwide.
“It’s a long-term threat, but with Vorster in charge, it’s a very probable outcome. Now the question is, just what do we recommend to the
President?”
“Increase our stockpiles of strategic minerals.” General Atkinson seemed certain.
“Hell, we can’t do much to influence what goes on inside that crazy country. I’d say we’d better start preparing for the worst.”
Forrester nodded his agreement.
“We’ll need a list of those minerals unique to South Africa.”
Hurley shook his head.
“I’m sorry, Mr. Vice President, but we’ll need to put any major commodity South Africa produces on that list. If things fall apart over there, prices on all of them will skyrocket.”
That made sense. Anything that closed down South Africa’s mines would send panic buyers around the world scurrying for whatever resources were left.
Forrester scribbled a quick note to himself and then glanced down the table at General Atkinson.
“All right, General. If the balloon does go up in Pretoria, do we have any military plans for that area? What if the
President volunteers to move UN peacekeeping forces into the region? Can we lift them?”
Atkinson seemed at a loss.
“Sir, I don’t think we have any plans for operations down there. It’s a long way from home. “
“It’s a long way from anywhere,” Forrester agreed.
“But let’s start looking at the possibilities. How many troops could we pick up from some third country and move to South Africa without affecting our other strategic commitments? What if we have to evacuate our embassy or all the foreign nationals down there? How about sending a hospital ship with a naval escort?”
He saw the surprised looks on several of the faces around the table.
“Look, gentlemen. This is all extremely speculative. But I am suggesting that we start exploring our options- all our options.”
He scowled.
“I, for one, am sick and tired of being blind-3
sided by world events. So if things go from bad to worse in Pretoria, I want the data we’d need to make smart decisions on hand. Not sitting in some goddamned filing cabinet, five years out of date. Clear?”
Heads nodded meekly. Good. Maybe it paid to throw a mini-temper tantrum every once in a while.
