Suppose we manage to avoid the worst calamities. The world-wreckers, extinction-makers, and civilization- destroyers. And let’s say no black holes gobble the Earth. No big wars pound us back to the dark ages. Eco-collapse is averted and the economic system is kept alive.
Let’s further imagine that we’re not alone in achieving this miraculous endurance. That many other intelligent life forms also manage to escape the worst pitfalls and survive their awkward adolescence. Well, there are still plenty of ways that some promising sapient species might rise up, looking skyward with high hopes, and yet-even so-fail to achieve its potential. What traps might await us
Take one of the earliest and greatest human innovations-
Eventually though, skill and knowledge spread, increasing that precious surplus, letting more people read, write, invent… which created more wealth, allowing more specialization and so on, until only a few remained on the land, and those farmers were mostly well-educated specialists, too.
In the West, one trend spanned the whole twentieth century: a steady
And that is where-to some of us-things started to look worrisome.
Let me take you back quite a ways, to the other end of a long lifetime, before the explosive expansion of cybernetics, before the Mesh and Web and Net, all the way back to the 1970s, when I first studied at Caltech. Often, late at night, my classmates and I pondered the dour logic of specialization. After reaping the benefits for many generations, it seemed clear that a crisis loomed.
You see, science kept making discoveries at an accelerating clip. Already, a researcher had to keep learning ever-increasing amounts, in order to discover more. It seemed that just keeping up would force each of us to focus on ever narrower fields of study, forsaking the forest in order to zero in on tiny portions of a single tree. Eventually, new generations of students might spend half a lifetime learning enough to start a thesis. And even then, how to tell if someone else was duplicating your effort, across the world or down the hall?
That prospect-having to know more and more about less and less-seemed daunting. Unavoidable. There seemed to be no way out…
… until, almost overnight, we veered in a new direction! Our civ evaded that crisis with a
Today, hardly anybody speaks of the danger that fretted us so. It’s been replaced by the
Only first consider this.
Sure, we may have escaped the specialization trap, for now, but
But don’t take it for granted! The approach may not be repeated elsewhere. Not if it emerged out of some rare quality of our smartmonkey natures. Or pure luck.
Nor would it have been allowed in most
One can imagine countless other species-and our own fragile renaissance-faltering back into the dour scenario that we students mulled, those gloomy nights. Slipping into an endless, grinding cycle, where specialization-once a friend-becomes the worst enemy of wisdom.
32.
By the third day after his crash-landing at sea, Hacker started earning his meals. In part out of sheer boredom-he grew restless simply being fed by the tribe of strange dolphins, like some helpless infant.
Also, as that day stretched into a fourth, fifth, and so on, he felt a strange and growing sense that-for better or for worse-this was
So he pitched in whenever the group harvested dinner, by helping to hold the fishing net, trying not to flinch as the beaters drove schools of fish straight toward him-a great mass of silver and blue darts that seemed almost like a giant creature in its own right, thrashing against the deadly mesh, as well as his facemask and hands. Each time, Hacker’s jaw throbbed from the intense, subsonic noise of the struggle-and from high power click-scans of the cetaceans, both stunning and caressing their prey. That complex, multichannel song seemed to combine genuine empathy for the fish with an almost catlike enjoyment of their predicament.
This was no Disney underwater world. In comparison, the forest deer and rabbits had long stretches of peace. But down here? You watched your back all the time.
Or rather, you listened. The texture of vibrations surrounded and stroked Hacker, in ways that it never did ashore-lapping against him with complex, interweaving songs of danger, opportunity, and distant struggle. Of course the implant in his jaw was one reason for this heightened sensitivity. With his eardrums still clamped from the day of the rocket launch, it provided an alternative route for sound, far more similar to dolphin hearing.
Not that he had any real complaints. Lacey would get excited about some new development and recruit the boys as willing-or sometimes grudging-subjects. When she learned that human beings could be taught