nuclear storage sites are known to Islamist extremists and have been attacked at least three times over the last two years, according to two recent reputable reports.
…The first such attack against the nuclear-missile storage facility was on November 1, 2007, at Sargodha; the second, by a suicide bomber, occurred December 10, 2007, against Pakistan’s nuclear air base at Kamra; and the third and most alarming was launched August 20, 2008, by several suicide bombers who blew up key entry points to a nuclear-weapons complex at the Wah cantonment, long believed to be one of Pakistan’s main nuclear-weapons assembly points, where warheads and launchers come together in a national emergency…
…While not denying the three incidents, Pakistan has said repeatedly that its nuclear weapons are fully secured and there is no chance of them falling into the hands of Islamist extremists…
CHINA: U.S. SHOULD STOP MILITARY SURVEILLANCE OFF COAST (www.Stratfor.com, August 28, 2009): The Chinese Defense Ministry said August 28 that “the root cause of problems between the navies and air forces” of China and the United States is the “constant” U.S. military surveillance off China ’s coast, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a ministry statement. The ministry said that to avoid Chinese-U.S. maritime incidents, the United States should “decrease and eventually stop” its surveillance and survey operations. The spokeswoman for the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Susan Stevenson, said the United States “exercises its freedom of navigation of the seas under international law, while putting emphasis on avoiding any unwanted incidents.”
U.S., AUSTRALIA: MILITARIES TO ASK CHINA TO JOIN EXERCISES (www.Stratfor.com, September 2, 2009): …U.S. Pacific Command chief Admiral Timothy Keating and Australian Defense Force leader Angus Houston met in Sydney on September 2 and agreed to ask China to hold exercises and develop military ties “at the earliest opportunity.” The United States and Australia want to understand China ’s intentions, as both countries are concerned that China ’s military buildup might have purposes other than defense.
RUSSIA TO REVAMP AIR-SPACE DEFENSES (RIA Novosti, August 11, 2009): Moscow – Russia will create a new generation of air and space defenses to counter any strikes against its territory due to a potential foreign threat, the air force commander said on Tuesday.
“Foreign countries, particularly the United States, will be able to deliver coordinated high-precision strikes from air and space against any target on the whole territory of Russia,” Colonel General Alexander Zelin said, referring to the potential for new hypersonic and space-based offensive weapons.
“That is why the main goal of the development of the Russian air force is to create a new branch of the armed forces, which would form the core of the country’s air and space defenses to provide a reliable deterrent during peacetime, and repel any military aggression with the use of conventional and nuclear arsenals in a time of war,” the general said.
…The Soviet-era MiG-31 Foxhound supersonic interceptor aircraft will most likely be used as part of the new air-space defense network, as was intended when it was designed. “We are upgrading this system to be able to accomplish the same [air-space defense] tasks,” Zelin said. According to some sources, Russia has over 280 MiG- 31 aircraft in active service and about 100 aircraft in reserve.
CHINA, RUSSIA: SHIPS TO CONDUCT JOINT EXERCISES OFF SOMALI COAST (www.Stratfor.com, September 17, 2009): Chinese and Russian ships, on antipiracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, plan to hold joint exercises, called “Blue Peace Shield 2009,” on September 18, testing communications links, simulating operations to identify vessels, and coordinating resupply methods, the Associated Press reported September 17.
CHINA SAYS MILITARY ARSENAL COMPARABLE WITH WEST (Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, September 21, 2009): Beijing-China’s military now possesses most of the sophisticated weapon systems found in the arsenals of developed Western nations, the country’s defense minister said in comments published Monday.
Many of China ’s systems, including the J-10 fighter jet, latest-generation tanks, navy destroyers, and cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles, match or are close to matching the capabilities of those in the West, Liang Guanglie said in a rare interview posted on the ministry’s Web site. “This is an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the level of our military’s modernization and the huge change in our country’s technological strength,” Liang said.
… China ’s improved capabilities are also seen as emboldening the country’s military and civilian leaders in using force to back up political and territorial claims. Chinese ships have repeatedly harassed U.S. Navy surveillance vessels collecting intelligence off China ’s southeastern coast, while Chinese submarines have aggressively pursued aircraft-carrier battle groups.
…Analysts say the odds of conflict with the United States, Japan, and other regional militaries is likely to increase as China further beefs up its arsenal…
RUSSIA: PRESIDENT PROMISES REBUILT NAVY IN 10 YEARS (www.Stratfor.com, September 28, 2009): Russian president Dmitri Medvedev said during a meeting with military personnel that Russia will rebuild its naval fleet within ten years, RIA Novosti reported September 28…
CHINA: BEIJING TO BUILD LARGE DESTROYERS (www.Stratfor.com, October 9, 2009): Beijing plans to build a new generation of large destroyers as part of its effort to develop a modern blue-water navy, South China Morning Press reported October 9. The destroyers will displace more than ten thousand tons, according to a report by the China Shipbuilding Information Center -an institute under the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest state-owned shipbuilder in China. According to the report, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hopes the new destroyers-that will feature fully developed stealth technology-will close the gap in combat capability between the Chinese and Western navies.
U.S.: ADMIRAL CONCERNED ABOUT CHINA MILITARY BUILDUP (www.Stratfor.com, October 30, 2009): U.S. Rear Admiral Kevin Donegan said the United States wants to ensure that China’s unprecedented rate of military expansion doesn’t destabilize the region as China’s spending was up almost 15 percent in 2009, the Associated Press reported October 30…Donegan, commander of the USS George Washington, acknowledged the possibility of a Chinese aircraft carrier, stating concerns about antiaccess weapons…
CHINA: PAKISTAN TO BUY J-10 FIGHTERS-PAKISTANI OFFICIALS (www.Stratfor.com, November 10, 2009): China agreed to sell Pakistan two squadrons of J-10 fighters for as much as $1.4 billion, the Financial Times reported November 10, citing Pakistani and Western officials. A Pakistani official said more sales may follow, but denied that a deal had been made to buy up to 150 fighters. The Pakistani air force expects to buy at least 250 JF- 17 Thunder fighters in the next four to five years. A Western official in Islamabad said Iran and Middle Eastern countries can find Western-like technology in China purchases; he added that Pakistan ’s purchase is a test case for the region.
PROLOGUE
The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance-it is the illusion of knowledge.
– DANIEL J. BOORSTIN
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, 500 MILES SOUTH OF HONG KONG
WINTER 2010
“Who the hell is this again?” the lead pilot of the formation of U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets radioed.
