Sea of Shadows

“That’s all it is so far, Mr. President,” Brenthoven said. “But both sides are flying about three times as many sorties as usual, and they all appear to be carrying full wartime weapon load-outs. Having that much military hardware flying around creates a lot of opportunities for mistakes.

This could turn into a shoot-out in about a split-second.”

The president looked at Undersecretary Mitchell. “Larry, your boss has been back and forth between Taipei and Beijing about a dozen times recently. What does the water feel like over there? Is this whole thing just posturing? Or do you think they could be gearing up for a fight?”

“The diplomatic rhetoric is hard-line as hell on both sides of the strait, Mr. President. China is about a half- inch from threatening outright war if Taipei continues to move toward a formal referendum on independence.

And the new Taiwanese government is openly referring to this latest Chinese ballistic missile test as nuclear blackmail. The Taiwanese army is repositioning land-based missile launchers and recalling reserve personnel for combat training. And China is mobilizing army units for their largest military exercise in ten years. The Chinese government says that the timing is a coincidence, but nobody’s buying that.”

The president nodded. “What about the naval side of things?”

“We’re keeping a close eye on the infrared picture for both navies,” Brenthoven said. “Our satellites can detect the heat plumes when their ships light off their engines. So far, the deployed force levels for both navies look pretty much status quo. No sign that anyone is rushing to put more ships to sea, but that could change pretty quickly.”

“How quickly?” the president asked.

“It would take either side about two hours to put a significant patrol force to sea,” Brenthoven said. “And about twelve hours to scramble most of their frigates, destroyers, and submarines. The newer gas turbine ships can get under way in about an hour, but the older steam-powered ships will require the better part of a day to light off their engineering plants, heat up their boilers, and get up a head of steam.”

“How many ships are we talking about?”

Brenthoven scanned his notes again. “China has what the CNO likes to call a ‘frigate navy,’ sir. Their order of battle includes about four hundred patrol boats, missile boats, and torpedo boats, but they have fewer than fifty major combatant ships. Taiwan is severely outnumbered with regards to patrol, missile, and torpedo boats but has roughly the same number of major combatants as China. However, from a qualitative standpoint, Taiwan’s ships are a lot more modern and generally a lot more mission capable. If it comes down to a gunfight, they’re pretty evenly matched.

Taiwan has the edge in shore-launched anti-ship missiles, though. And that could well tip the balance in a major naval engagement. The Chinese military has concentrated more on ballistic and surface-to-surface missiles than on anti-ship missiles. That’s going to cost them if they try an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.”

“An amphibious invasion?” Under Secretary Mitchell asked. “I didn’t think China had enough amphibious transport ships to do the job.”

“They don’t, Mr. Secretary,” Brenthoven said. “According to our latest assessments, China can only move about one division at a time, and that’s not enough to seize and maintain a decent foothold if the Taiwanese resistance is even half as good as we think it would be.”

Doyle nodded. “At least we don’t have to worry about the Chinese mounting an invasion.”

“That’s not necessarily true,” the national security advisor said.

The president stared at him. “Make up your mind, Greg. The Chinese either have the amphibious capacity to mount an invasion, or they don’t.

Which is it?”

“They … might, sir,” Brenthoven said. “If you count strictly military assets, they certainly don’t. But a few years ago, the RAND Institute’s National Security Research Division published a report on the military aspects of a China-Taiwan confrontation. The report referred to something called a reverse Dunkirk tactic. The short of it is, China has a large number of commercial vessels that could be pressed into service as troop ferries, along with a few thousand smaller civilian craft, all of which could be used to transport small numbers of troops.”

“Will it work?” the president asked.

“About half of the military experts say no, and the other half say yes, sir. A lot of it depends on Taiwan’s anti-ship missiles, and on whether or not Taiwan can gain air superiority over the strait.”

“So it still comes down to a coin toss,” Doyle said.

Brenthoven nodded. “Pretty much. But if that coin gets tossed, a lot of people will die, no matter which way it falls.”

The president exhaled through his teeth. “What can we do to prevent that coin from being tossed?”

“We’re already doing it, sir. Our carrier-based F-18Es are flying regular sorties over the straits too. They’re sticking to the neutral zone between Taiwanese and Chinese airspace, but their presence is sending a pretty strong signal. The Chinese know that Taiwan will gain air superiority over the strait if we help them. China can’t launch an effective invasion if Taiwan owns the sky over the strait.”

“Once again we’ve got our finger stuck in the dike,” the president said.

“If we pull the carriers out, do you think the Chinese will actually try anything?”

Brenthoven shrugged. “The Pentagon thinks an invasion scenario is possible but extremely unlikely.”

“So we can’t rule it out,” the president said.

“No, sir.”

The president sighed. “Okay. We keep working the diplomatic angle, but we leave the carriers in place, for now at least.”

He leaned back. “Germany.”

Undersecretary Mitchell spoke up. “The diplomatic situation between Germany and Britain is deteriorating rapidly, Mr. President. Chancellor Shoernberg has publicly refused to apologize for the attack on HMS York and HMS Chatham. He claims that Britain defaulted on all existing treaties and agreements the second the Royal Navy tried to impede the passage of German submarines through international waters. He’s calling for a formal apology from Prime Minster Irons, and he’s demanding reparations for the aircraft that were destroyed and the pilots who were killed. He’s really pitching a fit over the German warship, the Sachsen.”

“Reparations? I don’t see that happening,” Doyle said.

“I don’t either,” Mitchell said. “The average British man on the street has blood in his eye right now. They were already mad as hell over the attack on their embassy. They’re ready to hurt somebody, and the shooting match with the Germans has just given them a target for all of that anger. Prime Minister Irons is addressing Parliament this afternoon.

The grapevine says she’s going to ask for suspension of diplomatic ties with Germany.”

The president grimaced. “Not good. When countries stop talking …”

“They have a tendency to start shooting,” the national security advisor finished. “Sad, but true, Mr. President. And from the looks of things, both sides are gearing up for it. Military bases on both sides of the English Channel have been ordered to increased states of readiness, and air activity for both countries has picked up by about fifty percent.”

“Is the naval operating tempo increasing as well?”

“Not yet, sir,” Brenthoven said. “But that’s probably coming.”

“What’s the latest on the submarines?”

“No word on their current location, sir. Fifth Fleet has assigned four ships to intercept them south of the Strait of Hormuz. I have to tell you, Mr. President, it’s going to take a lot of luck to pull this off.”

“Unfortunately,” Doyle said, “luck has been in rather short supply around here lately.”

The president nodded. “Right now, we’re looking at about eighteen different ways the world could go to shit.”

Undersecretary Mitchell smiled weakly. “Well, at least it can’t get any worse.”

CHAPTER 33