based interceptors knocked out three of the inbound warheads.”

Four gray lines appeared on the screen, sprouting from what appeared to be the open water of the eastern Pacific. Three of these new lines converged with red lines and terminated them. The fourth gray line ended abruptly, well short of intersection with the remaining red line. The last red arc continued uninterrupted to a spot in the ocean near the California coast.

“The cruiser, USS Shiloh, launched two pairs of sea-based interceptor missiles against the remaining warheads, destroying three out of four. The fourth warhead, as you know, impacted in the ocean and detonated about a hundred miles west of San Diego. Based on satellite imagery and seismic readings, we estimate the yield at approximately 200 kilotons. Just about exactly what we would expect to see out of an R- 29R warhead.”

He keyed the remote again. On the screen, six dashed red lines appeared, each attached to one of the interrupted arcs that represented an intercepted missile. All six of the dashed lines curved down to points in the ocean, at varying distances from the California coast.

“This is a projection of the unfinished trajectories of the six warheads that were intercepted. Based on their position and movement vectors at the moment of intercept, these are the calculated impact points for each warhead if we had not managed to knock them down. You’ll note that all seven warheads, including the six we intercepted and the one we missed, would have fallen in the ocean. In other words, we don't think that any of the warheads were aimed at targets on U.S. soil.”

He paused a second, to let the impact of that statement to sink in. “The analysts at the Office of Naval Intelligence offered three possible interpretations of this information. I present them in no particular order. First, the missile might have suffered a mechanical failure that threw the warheads far enough off course to miss their respective targets. Second, the crew of K-506 may lack the expertise to successfully program the P-29R missile guidance package. And third, it’s possible that Governor Zhukov, despite his heavy-handed threats, lacks the will to attack American targets with nuclear weapons. Each of these three theories had supporters at ONI and in the Pentagon. Many of the people looking at this problem felt that one of the three was likely to be the answer. That is, until we discovered this …”

Once again, the admiral keyed the remote. Three red circles appeared on the screen. Two of them were centered on projected impact zones for warheads that had been shot down. The third was centered on the impact zone for the warhead that had slipped by the interceptors to detonate west of San Diego. The three circles formed a nearly perfect diagonal line, with two of the circles grouped close to each other at the southeast end, and the third by itself at the northwest end.

“These impact points were from warheads 1, 5 and 6, numbered for the order in which they were deployed by the missile. As you can tell, #6 got past our interceptors. Numbers 1 and 5 were shot down.”

The admiral laid his remote on the table. “The impact points for the remaining warheads were randomly distributed. But 1, 5, and 6 formed a pattern. We now believe that 1, 5, and 6 were the live nuclear warheads, and the randomly distributed impacts—2, 3, 4, and 7—were the decoys.”

Secretary of State Whelkin rubbed her left earlobe. “I assume there’s a significance to this pattern, Admiral?”

Admiral Casey returned to his seat. “Yes, Madam Secretary. We believe there is. One of the analysts at ONI did a bit of measuring. It turns out that the first warhead was targeted exactly 300 miles west of San Francisco. The second was aimed exactly 200 miles west of Los Angeles. And the third — the one that got past us — detonated exactly 100 miles west of San Diego. Three hundred miles, two hundred miles, and one hundred miles. In that order.”

“It’s a countdown,” General Gilmore said. “Three — two — one. After that, comes zero.”

Admiral Casey nodded. “Or ground zero, which is the traditional name for the center point of a nuclear attack.”

The president frowned. “You think Zhukov was sending us a message? With nuclear weapons?”

“That’s a distinct possibility, Mr. President,” the admiral said. “Governor Zhukov may have been communicating with us in a way that transcends all threats and saber-rattling. We think he was telling us that this was our freebie. This was our one and only warning shot. Three-two-one-zero. Every impact point calibrated to the position of a major city. The next time he shoots, it won’t be offset into the water. It will be right on top of the targets. Ground zero. And he’s going after major centers of population.”

The White House chief of staff pulled out her palmtop computer and started punching buttons. After a few seconds, she looked up. “Six and a half million people,” she said.

The president raised an eyebrow. “What’s that?”

“I just pulled the census projections for San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego,” Doyle said. “Sir, if those three warheads had hit their targets, they would have killed about six and a half million people.”

“I see,” said the president. He looked at the Chief of Naval Operations. “I think you’re right, Admiral. Mr. Zhukov is sending us a message. He’s telling us that the gloves are off, and next time, he kills millions.”

Becka Solomon sat back in her chair. “Mr. President, if we’re reading this correctly, we’re going to have to evacuate the entire western United States.”

“I’m not even sure that’s possible,” the vice president said. “We couldn’t get a million people 200 miles up the road from New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina hit. How are we going to move seventy million people across half the country?”

“I don’t know,” Solomon said. “But Zhukov has got forty-five nuclear warheads left, and he’s communicated quite clearly that he’s not afraid to use them. We’ve got way too many population centers within reach of those missiles. Los Angeles, San Diego, Portland, Cheyenne, Seattle, Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, Reno, Great Falls, Spokane … Zhukov could wipe out every city and major town west of the Texas panhandle, and still have a few warheads left over for a rainy day.”

“We cannot evacuate the western United States,” the president said. “It would take us years to prepare for a move that big, and I’m not sure this country would survive the effort. The economy would be devastated — maybe completely destroyed. There are no resources to transport that many refugees, much less house them or feed them. And how would we provide medical care and emergency services for eighty million displaced people?”

He shook his head. “A lot of frightened people are trying to run east, and we can’t do anything about that. I’m not going to call out the troops and try to force people to stay in the target zone. If they want to run, we have to let them run. That by itself is going to damage this country in ways I don’t want to think about. But we cannot undertake the job of moving eighty million people. We’re not even going to try.”

He looked at the CNO. “The only way to stop this, is to kill that submarine. How do we do that, Admiral?”

“Mr. President,” the admiral said. “We’re obviously going to have to project military force into the Sea of Okhotsk. We’ll have to go in there after the submarine. And that’s going to be a bit of a problem.”

“Why is that?”

“Geography, sir. The Sea of Okhotsk is landlocked on three sides by Russian territory. Siberia is to the north; Russia is to the west; and Kamchatka is to the east. Governor Zhukov may claim otherwise, but Kamchatka still happens to be Russian territory. The only entrances to the Sea of Okhotsk are to the south, through the Kuril island chain, which — as you may have guessed — is Russian territory as well. Which means that all of the land surrounding the Sea of Okhotsk is owned by the Russian Federation. To their way of thinking, that makes the whole sea their national property. The United States and the international community don’t happen to agree, but that’s how the Russians see it. As far as they’re concerned, that’s their back yard. They’re not going to want us in there.”

“I don’t understand,” the Vice President said. “If we can’t go into the Sea of Okhotsk, how are we going to get the sub?”

The Secretary of Defense smiled. “The admiral didn’t say we can’t go in there, Mr. Vice President. He said the Russians aren’t going to like it. And he’s right. They won’t like it. But they can’t stop it. According to international law, the Russian Federation doesn’t own that water. They like to think they do, but the law, the United Nations, and the international community say otherwise. We do not acknowledge the Russian claim of ownership.”

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