even a year later on that television station was a story that started: “Dorothy Allison, the famed New York psychic, was wrong in her prediction about Etan Patz made on this program last year.”
The Dutch clairvoyant Gerard Croiset, who died in 1980, was another famed psychic crime fighter. Pollack (1964) recounts many of his exploits, relying for his information on Dutch parapsychologist Prof. W. Tenhaeff, who was a promoter of Croiset. Hoebens (1981–82a, 1981–82b) reviewed the claims made for Croiset, both in Pollack’s book and in the European literature. He found that the claims are not supported by the facts. For example, Pollack describes a 1953 case in which Croiset allegedly saw, psychically and in detail, what had happened to ten-year-old Dirk Zwenne, who disappeared while playing and was later found dead in a canal. Pollack’s account, taken from Tenhaeff, contains many specific statements and predictions that Croiset is said to have made, which were said to have come true. In fact, Croiset never made such statements. Hoebens (1981–82b) tracked down the original report of the Zwenne case and found that Croiset made the same type of vague statements that are typical of the multiple out. In addition, several of his statements were simply wrong. At one point, Croiset said the body would be found at a particular location. When taken to a second location to see if he “saw” anything there, he indicated that he did not. The body was found at this second location, not the first. Croiset also said that when discovered, the body would bear a fatal wound on the left side of the forehead. There was no such wound. Of course, these errors are not mentioned in Pollack’s book. The Zwenne case is just another example of psychics and their promoters claiming great accuracy and slyly changing the predictions after the fact.
In another instance, Tenhaeff claimed (1980, cited in Hoebens 1981–82b) that Croiset identified an arsonist who had been setting fires in a Dutch city. Tenhaeff stated that Croiset described the arsonist as someone who “sometimes wore a uniform,” “lived in an apartment building,” and had “something to do with toy airplanes”; further, the “toy” airplanes could be “model” airplanes. The arsonist turned out to be a policeman who worked with model airplanes—an impressive hit for Croiset, especially since Tenhaeff claimed that his statements had been made to State Police Commander Eekhof and had been videotaped and that a transcript of the videotape had been made, verified, and signed by Commander Eekhof.
Hoebens (1981–82a) interviewed Commander Eekhof and found that the truth was much different. Croiset had never mentioned a uniform. That detail had been added later by Tenhaeff, after the arsonist had been caught. Nor had Croiset mentioned “toy airplanes.” He had spoken of “‘airplanes’—‘sitting in airplanes,’ ‘airfields,’ and ‘airplane construction. ’ When asked by Commander Eekhof whether it could be model airplanes, Croiset first said yes, maybe, but then retracted and said, ‘No, these are big airplanes’” (p. 36). So, once again, vague statements become—after the fact—precise predictions, and statements that were never made are credited to the psychic to show his amazing powers.
Hansel (1966, 1980) has debunked another Croiset claim. In this instance, Croiset is said to have solved an assault on a young woman. But the police involved reported that, while Croiset did make comments on the case, his comments were useless.
Reiser, Ludwig, Saxe, and Wagner (1979) have studied whether, in a controlled situation, psychics can provide any information about a crime. They examined twelve psychics: eight professionals who make all or part of their living from selling psychic services and four amateur psychics. Physical evidence from four crimes, two solved and two unsolved, were presented to the psychics, who were to give their impressions of the crimes. The psychics were told nothing else about the crimes. The psychics, both individually and as a group, scored no better than chance on any of the four crimes. They showed very poor consistency in their impressions of the same crime and made flagrant errors. The most common error was to believe that the crimes had something to do with the “Hillside Strangler” murders which were taking place at the time in Los Angeles, where the study was conducted. In fact, none of the cases had anything to do with the “Strangler” series of killings.
As Randi (1996) notes, psychics can fool the police with the same tricks they use to fool others. Posner (1997) has shown that the claims of great accuracy by Florida “psychic detective” Noreen Renier are way off base. Nickell’s (1994) book contains eleven chapters examining carefully the claims of numerous police psychics. These claims do not hold up well to close scrutiny.
TED SERIOS’S THOUGHT PICTURES
Ted Serios, another phony psychic, caused quite a stir in parapsychological circles when he claimed, in the 1960s, to be able to project a picture onto film in a Polaroid camera through psychic powers (Eisenbud 1967). This feat was accomplished by the use of a little sleight of hand and a fairly clever gimmick. Usually, Serios would use what he called a “gizmo,” a tube of paper placed against the camera lens. He said this helped him to focus his mental energy and direct it toward the film. He also used something he didn’t tell anyone about—a tiny tube about one inch long and one-half inch in diameter. This tube had a tiny magnifying lens at one end. In the other end one could insert a piece cut from a standard 35mm slide. Lined up properly, this device projected the image on the cut piece of transparency onto the film of the Polaroid camera. The device was small enough to be concealed in the palm of the hand, so it could be used even when the larger paper “gizmo” wasn’t around to conceal it. Serios’s method of producing his pictures was revealed in Reynolds (1967), Eisendrath (1967), and Randi (1980) after a magician working with Reynolds and Eisendrath spotted Serios’s device.
The media’s response to Serios was sadly typical.
As might be expected, given the technique Serios used, his pictures were not of the highest quality. They were frequently fuzzy and out of focus. If Serios really had the ability to project his thoughts onto film, it would be reasonable to expect that, if asked to think about, say, a dog, he could obtain a recognizable picture of a dog. That’s not the way it worked, however. The pictures usually bore little or no resemblance to the object that Serios was asked to project onto film—unless, of course, one was allowed to “interpret” the resulting image. Dr. Jule Eisenbud (1967), a strong supporter of Serios’s claim, unwittingly gives a lovely example of how believers will support their preconceived beliefs with the most tortuous “interpretations.” Serios was asked to produce a picture of the sunken nuclear submarine Thresher. Instead, he produced a picture that looked very much like Queen Elizabeth II. How did Eisenbud explain that one? The queen’s name in Latin is
PROPHETIC DREAMS AND HUNCHES
Many people become convinced of the reality of psychic phenomena because of some seemingly psychic personal experience they have had. Going to a psychic who does a good cold reading can also be very convincing, as mentioned earlier in this chapter. Having what seems to be a prophetic dream is especially convincing. Many people can relate dreams that they, a friend, or a relative, have had that later “came true.” In some rare instances, the dream contains detailed information about the event that later took place, information that the dreamer really had no way of knowing. Take a hypothetical example: Late one night John is awakened by a nightmare in which his beloved great-aunt Petunia is driving a brand-new shocking pink Porsche down the San Diego Freeway. Suddenly, the engine of a 747 flying over the freeway to make a landing at San Diego airport falls off and crushes the Porsche, killing Aunt Petunia instantly. Shaken by the dream, John writes it down and then goes back to sleep. He is stunned to learn later that day that, in fact, Aunt Petunia was killed in just the way he had dreamed a few hours after he
