Goodbye California

on a limited scale, would cause megadeaths.” He puts in brackets, millions of deaths. “The US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency came to the conclusion a couple of years ago that megadeaths could arise from another agency which did not directly involve nuclear war. A large number of nuclear explosions, almost certainly in the megaton range, could damage the layer of ozone that shields the earth from the sun’s lethal ultra-violet radiation.

‘“Most people are under the impression that ozone is what they sniff at the seaside. Ozone is an allotropic condition of oxygen, having three atoms instead of the normal two, and can be smelled at the seaside by the electrolysis of water and also after the discharge of electricity through the air, as occurs in a thunderstorm. But ozone in its natural state occurs almost solely in the lower stratosphere at an altitude between ten and thirty miles.

‘“The intense heat given off by a nuclear explosion causes the oxygen and nitrogen molecules in the atmosphere to combine. Those form oxides of nitrogen which would be borne upwards in the atomic cloud. Those would react with the ozone layer and by a well-understood chemical reaction convert the three atoms of ozone into two, that is, normal oxygen which offers zero protection against ultra-violet radiation. This would effectively blow a hole in the ozone layer and would expose the earth underneath the hole to the direct effects of the sun.

‘“Two effects remain unclear. The first of those —”’

Delage broke off as a telephone rang. Leroy picked it up, listened in silence, thanked the caller and hung up. He said: ‘I don’t know why I thanked him for that call. From the local TV station. It seems that Morro wants to strike while the iron is hot. He has another statement to make. At eleven o’clock. That’s in eight minutes’ time. It will be carried on every TV and radio station in the State. For the rest of the States, too, I shouldn’t wonder.’

‘Isn’t that wonderful?’ Dunne said. ‘A morning to remember. I wonder why it wasn’t cleared with the FBI first — we would have heard, wouldn’t we?’

Ryder said: ‘You blame them? After what the FBI did to stop the atomic blast in Nevada this morning? This is a matter for national concern now, not just for the FBI. Since when have you had the power to impose martial law? Their attitude, and probably the attitude of every citizen in the country, is that the FBI can go take a jump.’ He looked at Delage. ‘The first “unclear effect”?’

‘You’re a cold-blooded bastard, Ryder.’ Dunne undoubtedly meant what he said.

Delage looked unhappily at Dunne, but Dunne had his head in his hands. Delage returned to his notes.

‘“We just don’t know what will happen. The consequences might be small, they might be catastrophic. We might just all end up becoming very heavily suntanned: or the ultraviolet could conceivably destroy all human, animal and plant life. Subterranean and aquatic life might survive any conditions. We have no means of knowing.”’ Delage looked up. ‘He is a cheery lad, isn’t he?’

‘Let’s fall about afterwards,’ Ryder said. ‘Let’s have the second unclear effect.’

‘Well. He says: “It is not known whether this hole in the stratosphere would remain localized and keep pace with the rotation of the earth; worse, it is not known whether or not this hole can spread through the rest of the ozone layer. Chemical reactions at that level in the stratosphere are unknown and wholly unpredictable: there might well exist a form of breeder reaction, in which case large areas of the earth could be devastated.

‘“The possibility must be taken into account that some nation may already have experimented in some remote and uninhabitated region —”’

Parker said: ‘Siberia?’

‘He doesn’t say. He goes on: “It may have been established that such a hole can be blown through the ozone layer and has been found to be stable as to both location and extent. This, however, is pure conjecture.

‘“This introduces the Geneva connection. As long ago as September third of nineteen-seventy-six the thirty- nation disarmament conference there sent a draft treaty banning modification of the environment for military purposes to the United Nations General Assembly. The matter, not unexpectedly, is still under UNO’s consideration.

‘“The treaty is designed, in the words of the communique, to prevent artificial induction by the military of such phenomena as earthquakes —”’

‘Earthquakes!’ Ryder seemed jolted.

‘Yes, earthquakes. He goes on: ‘Tidal waves —’

‘Tidal waves?’ It was almost as if Ryder was beginning to comprehend something.

‘That’s what it says here. There’s some more: “ecological imbalance, alteration of weather and climate and changes in ocean currents, in the state of the ozone layer and the ionosphere, that is, the Appleton and Kennelly- Heaviside layers.” Then he goes on to say that the United States delegate at Geneva, one Mr Joseph Martin, believed that it would be a treaty amounting to a very strong practical inhibition against the hostile use of environmental modification techniques. He further comments that Mr Martin appears to have forgotten or ignored the fact that the only effect of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks was to encourage the Russians, in the sacred name of detente, to embark on a new and massive programme of building a bigger and better generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles.’ Delage appeared to run his eye down the page. ‘He does run on a bit more, but I’m afraid his scientific detachment gives way to a certain irony and bitterness. I would say that’s about all: Miss Ivanhoe’s rather vague ramblings in a coherent form.’

‘Switch on that TV,’ Dunne said. ‘A minute or so. Your sixty-seconds’-worth of observations, Sergeant Ryder?’

‘Poppycock. Or if you want it in plain language —’

‘That’s plain enough. No Reds under the bed?’ Dunne had a very disbelieving right eyebrow.

‘I didn’t say that. Neither do I say I disbelieve this story — theory, if you like — about blowing a hole through the ozone layer. I’m no scientist. All I’m saying is that I don’t believe in its relevance in those circumstances. Russian secret codes.’ On the rare occasions that Ryder expressed contempt he came across very strongly. ‘You think the Russians anyone — would use a young innocent, a marsh-mallow guaranteed to crack under the pressure of a fingertip, to decode a message or supposed secret that’s been in the public domain for two years? The idea’s preposterous.’

‘Laying a false scent, you would think?’

‘Yes. No.’

‘You’ve forgotten “perhaps”.’

‘“Perhaps” is what I mean. Morro’s intention may lie elsewhere. On the other hand, it may not. Maybe he thinks the idea’s so ridiculous that we’ll dismiss it out of hand and go ahead and use that idea. Or not. Maybe the Russians are involved. Again, or not. It’s the old story. Three ranchers are chasing a rustler who’s disappeared up a canyon. Half-way up this canyon there’s a branch canyon. Rancher A figures the rustler has gone hell for leather for the end of the canyon. Rancher B thinks he’s smarter than A and that the rustler, figuring that’s the way his pursuers will think, has taken the branch. C reckons that he’s smarter than both A and B, that the rustler will figure what B has figured and go to the end. No end to how long we could keep on outsmarting ourselves.’

He paused. ‘There could, of course, be a second branch canyon that we know nothing about. Just as we know nothing about the first.’

‘It’s a rare privilege,’ Dunne said, ‘to see a detective’s mind at work.’

Ryder might not have heard him. ‘Another interesting thing. This expert from ERDA. A nuclear physicist, I assume. About blasting a hole through the ozone layer. If the Russians — or whoever — had carried out any such experiments with God knows how many hydrogen bombs we or one of our allies would have been bound to know of it. It would have made headlines — big, big headlines — throughout the world. But there haven’t been any. Have there?’

No one said whether there had or hadn’t.

‘Well, so no experiments. Maybe the Russians — or again, whoever — are as scared of the outcome as we are. Maybe there never will be a nuclear war fought on land. Some people say it will be in space. Our friend in ERDA suggests — what did he say? — subterranean or aquatic use of nuclear devices. How do we fancy getting our feet wet?’

‘A rush on the stores for fishermen’s waders?’ Dunne turned towards the TV. I’m sure our friend Morro is about to enlighten us on that one.’

The newscaster, this time, was a much older man, which boded ill in itself. What boded worse was that he was dressed for a funeral in a suit of sombre hue, a colour in which the normal Califomian newscaster would not