that the Hai Lungs are merely lapping Taiwan, or patrolling the Strait, or watching Korea. Otherwise they’d be back within about sixty days. The eleven-week time span is what matters, because it means they are going far away, and they are getting refueled.
“In five weeks they can make seven thousand miles, possibly a little farther. We calculated one week on station and five weeks back. It appears to be a kind of shuttle service. The trouble is, when you are just a few miles out of Suao harbor, to the southeast, the Pacific shelves off very steeply to about ten thousand feet, and we have never been able to track them because they run deep and silent.
“However, this new information about the scientists provides a support for the existence of a possible specific project, being conducted, most likely, seven thousand miles distant.”
“You may think it is time we learned a little more,” replied the Paramount Ruler. “I think it is becoming obvious that Taiwan is taking more than a passing interest in the development of a nuclear capability. The question has become quite sharply defined. How? And where? Where are they doing it?”
At this point General Fang requested permission to speak. “As long ago as three years,” he began, “we received a report that a local furrier in Taipei had received an order from the Taiwan Navy for a large number of garments, jackets, hats, trousers, and boot linings. All in fur. Two months ago we found that the order had been renewed. One of our officers did track the shipment from the furrier to the submarine loading bay.”
“Which proves beyond doubt,” interrupted the Paramount Ruler, “that the submarines are either going to the cold North or the cold South, but probably not East or West.” Everyone else smiled also at the gentle wit of China’s venerable leader.
“Sir,” said Admiral Zhang. “I do agree we must find out what the Taiwanese are doing. And I am honored that you have invited me here today because I think I may be able to assist. I have considered the route of these two submarines on several occasions and I have always found the northern option the less likely of the two.
“I considered that they could be going up to the Aleutian Islands, which are spread out and have some very remote areas. But beyond the islands is the heavily patrolled Bering Sea, and the Bering Strait. Russians to the left, Americans to the right, and both in the middle. If I were seeking a place to establish a clandestine operation, it most certainly would not be up there, and it would not take me eleven weeks to get there in any event.
“Also there is no reasonable choke point on the north route where we could keep watch for the Hai Lungs…I am therefore drawn to the conclusion that we should bear the Aleutians in mind but concentrate on the more likely prospect that the Taiwanese submarines are headed south.”
“And what about choke points?” asked the Navy’s new Political Commissar, Admiral Lee Yung. “Are there any that we can utilize?”
“There are several,” replied Admiral Zhang. “The most usual place to keep watch would be the Malacca Strait, but in this case I’m inclined to think not…the Taiwanese submarines will almost certainly make their journey dived, and the waters through the Malacca Strait have a few tricky, shallow areas. My personal view is that the submarines will run straight through the middle of the South China Sea and head directly south-southwest for two thousand miles. Then, once they arrive in the Indonesian Islands, they will head due south between Sumatra and Borneo, arriving at the Sunda Strait — the water that divides Sumatra and Java — three days later. They can then run through there submerged and make straight for the open ocean.”
He paused for a moment, allowing his assessment to be absorbed by those less familiar with such journeys. “The only alternative I can see,” he added, “is a route past the island of Bali…there is a narrow seaway between that island and Java, but to be quite honest, I am not sure whether a submarine can make the voyage dived. I have not heard of anyone doing it.”
“Admiral Zhang, sir,” said the Political Commissar, “you are surely not suggesting we wait down there and attack the Taiwanese submarine, are you?”
“Absolutely not,” replied the C in C. “I am suggesting we might consider waiting down there, locating the first Hai Lung that comes by, assessing its course and speed of advance since it sailed. That would set us on an initial path to its ultimate destination, where we might find a lot of nuclear physicists involved in nefarious activities.”
“Would it be difficult to track it?”
“Impossible, without alerting them. But as they pass the choke point we could get a fix on them, with a new device we have been perfecting for several months.
“It’s a little complicated, but let me explain…we are all familiar with the Russian and American ELINT trawlers, which have fishing boat hulls equipped with very sensitive electronic interception gear — radar and radio. Anyone can spot them really. Well, we have been working on an ACINT system…which means Acoustic Interception…a highly sensitive listening device…brand-new…passive sonar…undetectable…carried below the waterline by Naval trawlers. They are covert and hard to identify as anything other than commercial fishermen.
“If one of those Hai Lungs passes anywhere near, we’ll pick him up. I’m going to suggest we move one down to Indonesia very soon and station it at the southern end of the Sunda Strait, where we’ll be patrolling, and ready.
“We’ll know when it’s due because we’ll let the trawler know the moment the outward-bound Hai Lung clears Suao. Since the distance is about two thousand two hundred miles, they ought to arrive eleven days later. We will of course be there very early…”
“What if he doesn’t show up?”
“Then we check the Malacca Strait…then the Bali Strait…and if he doesn’t show up there either…well…he’s not coming…and then we have to turn our attentions to the more difficult north. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
“Tell me, Zhang,” interrupted the Paramount Ruler again. “Where
“Sir, I am as ever honored that you should value my judgment…but in this case I am afraid I may be wasting everyone’s time by speculating…I do have my chart book here…and I have marked out possibilities…I am more than happy to give everyone the benefit of my studies…but I have of course nothing certain…”
“I would like to hear these places, Zhang,” said the Ruler.
“Well, the Taiwanese could be going to the islands of Amsterdam, or St. Paul, which are four thousand miles southwest of the Sunda Strait. And I suppose they might just make the Iles Crozet, which are eighteen hundred miles farther. However there are three places that fit better into our estimated five-week time frame — Heard Island, and two hundred and thirty miles to the northwest, Kerguelen, which is really a large archipelago of both large and small islands. The three desolate McDonald Islands lie twenty-three miles west-southwest of Heard. So far as I know, all of them are completely inhospitable and without power of any kind, except for the French weather station on Kerguelen. The weather on each of them is shocking. They are ice and snow-bound for most, if not all, of the year.
“If the Taiwanese are in the south, working on some nuclear program, they must be in one of those places. I must say, sir, I am nearly at a loss to suggest a way in which we might find them. They are without doubt the most remote places on the earth. Very nearly inaccessible, no airstrips. And really bad weather and sea conditions. You would need a nuclear-powered warship, with a helicopter…and that would be noticed within a week of arrival.”
“Or perhaps a submarine,” said the Ruler.
“Yessir. A submarine would be helpful,” replied Admiral Zhang. But he did not look too convinced.
“I am somewhat at a loss,” said Admiral Lee Yung. “How could the Taiwanese
Admiral Zhang answered. “The power is not a huge problem, sir. You could use a nuclear submarine…its reactor could power a small town…no problem with a couple of very large generators.”
“But the Taiwanese do not have a nuclear submarine,” interjected the Ruler.
“No, sir, they do not. At least not one that we know about, or one that has ever been to Taiwan…however there was much speculation a few years ago that they had bought one from France…somewhat inexpensively…it was an old twenty-five-hundred-ton Rubis Class nuclear boat. I believe it was in 1999. But the story became a mystery…it was never delivered, and there was much conjecture that it had been lost on the journey. We never even had confirmation that it had left the main French Atlantic base at Brest.”
“Perhaps it went straight to Heard Island and began its work as a power station,” said the Paramount
