He pulled out another cigar and took his time lighting it. ‘Did it ever occur to any of you that RAVEN might be a plant?’ he went on. ‘That this supposed agent might just be part of a deception operation intended to force us into doing something stupid – which it has? The KGB planners were experts at that kind of thing, and bearing in mind that they all now work for the SVR, do you really think they’ve lost their touch? Hell, the fucking source probably even works for the SVR!’ He looked round the table. ‘Well, did you? Any of you?’
Ronald Hughes replied quietly. ‘Yes, Director, we did. We did consider it, but the quality of the data we received was so good that we don’t believe the SVR would have released it as part of any deception campaign. We’ve been able to cross-check quite a lot of it, and there are no indications whatever that the source is anything other than what he appears to be – a disaffected officer right at the very top of the SVR or GRU.’
‘Good. I’m pleased to see somebody’s been thinking. Have we had anything from RAVEN since this note?’
‘Nothing,’ Hughes said. ‘Either the SVR tumbled to him, in which case we’ve lost the best high-level source we’ve ever had – in my opinion – or he’s having to lie low for the moment. Obviously,’ he added, ‘we hope he’s still in place.’
‘OK,’ said Hicks. ‘In my view, this is probably the SVR twisting our tail, just letting us know that they’re still there and still in business. I’ll spell it out. First, RAVEN was a walk-in. We don’t know who he is or why he’s doing it. I hear what you say about the data, Ron, but it is possible that we’re being fed disinformation which is being supported by related leaked data that you’re using to cross-check it. Kind of like a circular argument.’
‘That’s not the way I read it,’ Hughes said, ‘but I’ll concede that it is just possible.’
‘Second,’ Hicks continued, ‘the note was handwritten, which is suspicious for two reasons. If RAVEN was caught with the note in his pocket, his handwriting would be identifiable to another SVR or GRU officer at his level. If he is genuine, that would be too dangerous, too much of a risk. And why handwrite it? Why not just photograph the document, the same way he photographed all the other documents? And finally, your checks, Ron, showed no evidence whatsoever of military preparations for any kind of assault.’
There was silence round the table for a minute or so, then Hughes spoke. ‘There could be other explanations for the note, Director. It could be that RAVEN has only just been indoctrinated into the operation, that he’s only just been told about it. He may have been briefed verbally, and not seen any documents at all. If the project is classified highly enough, no documents describing the entire concept may exist, or there may be just one copy held in a two-key safe which can only be opened by two officers simultaneously; we know the KGB used that technique for added security. So there are several possible reasons why he may have had no option but to scribble brief details down, just to alert us to what’s going on. If that is the case, then he will be relying on our ability to pick up the trail and find out what’s happening. I wouldn’t like to think that we’re just going to drop it.’
Walter Hicks gave Hughes a brief grin. ‘You misunderstand me, Ron. I’m not going to drop it. I’m just acting as devil’s advocate, putting up the obvious counter-arguments.’
Muldoon leaned forward. ‘There are a couple of other possible reasons for the lack of military preparations. First, an off-the-wall suggestion,’ Muldoon said, looking slightly uncomfortable. ‘The Russians could have developed a weapon so powerful that they believe that simply the threat of using it would force the West to accede to any demands they made.’
Hicks laughed. ‘Dr Strangelove stuff, Richard? A “Doomsday Weapon”? I don’t believe that. Their weapons science is a long way behind ours, unless things have changed a hell of a lot since the USSR collapsed. Besides, we’d need to be convinced that the weapon would work, which would mean a demonstration somewhere – an obvious demonstration, not just a hole in the ground high in the tundra. Even then, what would they do about our retaliatory capability? No, that doesn’t hold water. What’s the other reason?’
‘This is the one that’s given me shivers ever since I saw the RAVEN message, Walter. What if they’ve got weapons in place already, here in the States? Nuclear devices, smuggled in. That could be construed as a covert assault, and it wouldn’t involve any kind of military build-up or other preparations.’
Hicks sat silent, digesting Muldoon’s suggestion. Then he shook his head. ‘That’s a sneaky idea, Richard, but to what purpose? Even if they’d positioned a nuclear weapon in every major city in the States, and threatened to detonate them, we could still destroy Russia and the rest of the CIS. It would still be a stalemate, just like in the bad old days of MAD.’
Muldoon shook his head, unconvinced. ‘I hope you’re right, but my gut feeling about this is that RAVEN is genuine, and that something is going on that we don’t know about. We have to take it further.’
‘Oh, we’re going to take it further, Richard, but I’m not – at least, not yet – going to involve the NSC or the President. What we have to do is recover the ’bird and view the films and detector records. Once we have that data to hand, we can decide what to do next. Right, Science and Technology got us into this – what are your recommendations, Richard?’
Muldoon selected a sheet of paper, glanced over it and then spoke. ‘First, I’d like it on formal record that my Division just implemented the request from Intelligence for the surveillance flight by the Blackbird – this was not our plan, Walter, and I will not accept responsibility for it. We—’
‘The buck stops anywhere but here, right?’ John Westwood said softly, his normally red face growing a deeper shade. ‘Your Division produced the satellite film analysis, and you personally recommended taking a close look at the site. The only way to get a closer look was to fly over Russia, which is what Intelligence suggested.’
Muldoon opened his mouth to speak, but Hicks beat him to it. ‘This will achieve nothing. If the whole thing does turn to worms, there’ll be an internal enquiry, and you can all concentrate on covering your asses then. For the moment, all I’m interested in is retrieving the situation. John, can it. Richard, carry on.’
‘Thank you. In my opinion, the most pressing matter is the recovery of the ’bird, because without the film and detector evidence all we have is conjecture. And the longer the aircraft stays in Britain, the more questions are going to be asked – there and here. Don’t forget, over-flights of Russia were specifically banned by Presidential order in 1960 after the Gary Powers U–2 shoot-down. I know we’ve largely ignored the directive since then, but the order still stands. And it will also not have escaped anyone’s notice that officially the Blackbird was retired from service at the end of 1989. Having one standing on the tarmac at Lossiemouth with obvious battle damage will certainly make people think. The last thing we want is for the British press to get hold of this. They’re just as tenacious and prying as the
‘I don’t think we’re in a position to instruct anyone, Richard,’ Hicks interrupted.
‘OK. I’ll rephrase that. We suggest that the USAFE tells the Royal Air Force, and their Ministry of Defence, whatever it takes to get the ’bird back to Mildenhall where we can get things under control.’
‘“Whatever it takes” is a pretty broad statement,’ John Westwood said. ‘What exactly do you mean? You won’t let them see the films?’
‘If that’s what it takes, yes.’
‘You can’t do that.’ Westwood’s voice was quiet but firm. He had headed the Foreign Intelligence (Espionage) Staff for two years and no one had ever heard him raise his voice much above a normal conversational level in all that time. ‘Remember what RAVEN told us. The covert offensive is two-pronged – one part aimed at us and the other at Europe. Until we get a handle on what’s going on, the last thing we need is the Brits getting involved.’
‘Why not?’ Hicks asked.
‘Because until we know more about this offensive, we don’t know how we want them to react.’
‘They are supposed to be our allies, remember.’
‘That’s exactly the point,’ Westwood replied. ‘Whatever this offensive is, and there’s precious little to go on at the moment, we should wait until we have the big picture before we tell any of our allies. We don’t want the Brits or anyone else blundering into action ahead of time and then have to stage a rescue or support them in some ill-advised action.’
Hicks nodded. ‘OK, that’s worth considering. However, the reality is that they have our aircraft and the films, and we – or rather the USAFE – will have to satisfy them before we get the access we need.’ He turned again to Richard Muldoon. ‘Let’s look at our options. Can we supply a faked set of pictures – something from the library?’
Muldoon shook his head. ‘Not a chance. First, they will almost certainly want the films to be removed and developed under their supervision, so making a switch would be difficult if not impossible. Secondly, don’t forget
