War Of Honor

regard, Elaine?'

Descroix returned his bland gaze with a composure he suspected was equally false. It was obvious that she fully understood his relief at finding another target against which he might direct the attention of their ministerial colleagues. Fortunately, he thought, there wasn't very much she could do about it.

'We haven't had a great deal of time to think about it, Edward,' she said with an air of reason. 'Given how completely . . . unexpected Theisman's announcement was, none of my diplomatic analysts had seen any reason to allow for anything like it in their evaluations of the Republic's negotiating posture. After all, since no one had even hinted to them that these ships existed, they could hardly have factored them into their analyses, now could they?'

Her sweet smile held more than a hint of malice, and Janacek hid a mental wince as her swift riposte drew blood.

'I've spent several hours conferring with my senior people since we received the news, however,' she continued in a tone which added an unspoken 'of course' to the sentence. 'At the moment, we see two main possibilities where political and diplomatic considerations are concerned.

'First, and simplest, is a possibility you've already raised yourself. It's been apparent for some time that Pritchart has been less than delighted with our refusal to make the ridiculous concessions her negotiators have demanded from us.' New Kiev shifted ever so slightly in her chair, but she didn't interrupt, and Descroix went on smoothly. 'Our best analyses suggest that Secretary Giancola is even unhappier than she is. In fact, it would be completely unreasonable for us to expect either of them not to be displeased, under the circumstances. After all, one of the realities of interstellar diplomacy is that someone is in the weaker position in almost any negotiation, and since Saint-Just sued for a truce, that someone has been the Republic.

'Obviously, Pritchart and her administration would very much like to change that. They've failed to do so at the negotiating table, and so it's very possible—even probable—that this entire announcement is designed to do so in another venue. If they've been able to offset our military advantage, or even to create a false impression that they've done so, then the entire balance of power shifts. In which case,' she transferred her attention from Janacek alone to everyone else around the table, 'Edward's suggestion that this might be the first step toward a new, more aggressive foreign policy stance would make perfectly good sense.'

'I see.' High Ridge nodded thoughtfully, then pursed his lips. 'But you said that was the first possibility. What's the second one?'

'The second one,' Descroix said, 'is that this announcement represents an escalation of a purely internal political agenda.'

'How?' New Kiev asked. Descroix glanced at her sharply, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer shrugged. 'I'm not discounting the possibility, Elaine. I'm just curious about how an announcement of enhanced military capabilities could affect any sort of domestic agenda.'

Her tone was conciliatory, despite the growing antipathy between her and Descroix, and the Foreign Secretary relaxed visibly.

'The internal dynamics of the Republic aren't as clear as we could wish,' she said. 'In large part, that's because their entire system is so new. In a lot of ways, they're still working out precedents and spheres of authority as they go along, and if they don't know exactly where the lines lie, it's even more difficult for us to know. Even so, though, it's pretty clear that Pritchart and Giancola are rivals, despite his membership in her Cabinet. As you know, he ran a fairly respectable campaign against her in the presidential election, and there are several indications that he sees foreign policy as an issue on which he might base an even more effective campaign when she runs for reelection.

'We don't have a formal ambassador to Haven, of course, but we do have extensive third-party contact with their government through several other nations' embassies and consulates. On the basis of that contact, it seems evident to us that Giancola's been pressing Pritchart to assume a more assertive stance in their treaty negotiations. Not only that, but he also appears to be in the process of establishing his own clique within their Congress and the upper tiers of the Administration, and he's using discontent with Pritchart's stance to do it.'

'I assume that if we're aware of this, President Pritchart also has to be aware of it.' New Kiev's observation came out as a question, and she cocked an eyebrow at Descroix.

'I'm sure she is,' the Foreign Secretary agreed.

'In that case,' New Kiev asked, 'why doesn't she simply fire him as Secretary of State?'

'Probably because she can't,' Descroix replied. 'She has to consider the balance of power between domestic political factions just as carefully as we do, Marisa. Probably even more carefully, given how . . . unsettled the Republic's internal affairs have been. It's obvious that Giancola has a substantial power base of his own, and she probably figures that she can't afford to openly alienate it. Especially if he has been succeeding in strengthening it.'

'All right.' New Kiev nodded. 'I can see that. But if Giancola's been advocating a more confrontational foreign policy, wouldn't she appear to be giving in to his demands if she adopted one?'

'That would certainly be one way to look at it,' Descroix conceded. 'On the other hand, she may see it as her best opportunity to undercut his power base by co-opting his position and effectively taking it away from him. Which is why I said that announcing the existence of these new ships could reflect domestic tensions even more than interstellar ones. It's entirely possible that Pritchart does intend to become more aggressive—on the surface, at least—in her negotiating stance, and that she sees Theisman's announcement as a stick she can use against us. But if that's the case, I would be extremely surprised if she were really willing to push us hard.'

'Why?' High Ridge asked. 'I don't necessarily disagree,' he said when she glanced at him. 'I'm just curious as to your reasoning.'

'As Edward's just pointed out,' the Foreign Secretary said after a moment, 'the mere fact that they have more ships than we thought they did doesn't necessarily indicate that they've actually managed to equalize the military balance. In fact, now that I've had time to think about it, the fact that Pritchart hasn't already become more assertive in the treaty negotiations is probably an indication that it doesn't. After all, whatever we may or may not have known about their naval building policies, she obviously had full information on them all along. So if she believed these new ships of the wall Theisman's just told the galaxy about really would significantly change the military equation, I doubt that she would have waited this long to stiffen her negotiating stance. Especially not if delaying such a change has permitted Giancola to do any successful empire-building inside her administration.

'Given all of that, I'm very much inclined to think that we're probably going to see a few strongly worded notes and probably some fairly emphatic news releases and press briefings from their State Department over the next few months. But all of that will probably be posturing, intended at least as much for domestic consumption as for us. Certainly, if Pritchart really intended to take a hard line in our negotiations, we'd have seen some sign of it before this.'

'I have to say that that makes sense to me,' Janacek put in. 'And if she were truly insane enough to contemplate some resumption of active operations against us, they would have been much less likely to tell us these ships existed. The mere fact that we know about them enormously reduces the military impact they could have asserted if they'd taken us completely by surprise with them.'

High Ridge nodded exactly as if he hadn't expected the First Lord to agree with anything which might make the Admiralty's Intelligence failure look even a little less ominous.

'So what you're basically saying, Elaine,' he said instead, 'is that you believe we can expect a certain degree of surface agitation but that the fundamental diplomatic equation remains effectively unchanged?'

'I don't know that I'd put it quite that strongly,' she temporized cautiously. 'That's certainly what I think right now, but at the moment our information about these additions to their navy seems to be extremely incomplete. If it turns out they really have narrowed the military gap—or even if they only think they have, whether or not they're correct—I'd have to reconsider my position.'

'That's reasonable,' he agreed, and turned back to Janacek.

'Assuming the ship numbers Theisman announced are accurate, and further assuming that the Republic does become more confrontational in the wake of his announcement, then I think it will be incumbent upon us to reconsider our own naval stance,' he said. 'How soon will you be able to recommend any appropriate changes, Edward?'

'I can't say at this point,' Janacek admitted. 'It's going to take time for us to verify Theisman's claims, and even longer for us to get any realistic appreciation for possible changes in their hardware. I wish that weren't the