War Of Honor

'Nonetheless, Elaine may have a point. Obviously, this entire incident only occurred because Harrington decided to act on the basis of testimony from a criminal caught in the act of committing an offense punishable by death. I think one might arguably call it a 'quixotic' decision to act so precipitously on the basis of such legitimately questionable 'evidence.' '

Janacek started to point out that, questionable or not, the fact that the suspected ship obviously had been squawking exactly the false transponder code Harrington's informant had told her it would seemed to suggest the evidence had been sound. But he didn't. Whether she'd acted precipitously or not was really beside the point, after all.

'So, Edward,' High Ridge said after a moment, when it became apparent that neither New Kiev nor Descroix was prepared to continue their confrontation, however sullen they might be about it, 'what does the Admiralty suggest we do?'

'Nothing,' Janacek said with a promptness which caused the others to look at him sharply.

'Nothing?' High Ridge repeated.

'Until we know more, there's no point trying to formulate a response,' Janacek said. 'We could respond by immediately scraping up additional reinforcements and rushing them off to Sidemore. Unfortunately, we don't know that those reinforcements are going to be required. My current feeling is that Sternhafen is very likely to take the out Harrington has offered him and agree to a joint investigation. If that is his decision—or, more probably, given the time lag in our communications, was his decision—then it's probable that this particular crisis is well along the way towards being defused.

'If, on the other hand, he's decided not to take her suggestion, then all of the data ONI has amassed on Andermani deployment patterns suggests that it will take some time, probably at least a couple of months, for the IAN to redeploy for offensive operations against Sidemore. They can probably push her back from the systems we've been patrolling in the Confederacy itself, but the Fleet base is a much tougher nut than that. Even with the delay in communications between here and there, we should know within no more than another week or so whether or not he decided to go along with her. At that point, we can think seriously about sending additional forces to Sidemore.'

Assuming, he carefully didn't add, that we haven't found out we need them much worse closer to home.

'So you think we'd have enough time to respond?' High Ridge pressed.

'That's the consensus at Admiralty House,' Janacek assured him . . . almost accurately. In fact, Admiral Chakrabarti was far from agreeing. His steadily growing concern over how thinly spread the Navy's assets had become in the face of its commitments had only been made sharper by Harrington's news. But there was no point bringing that up just now.

'In that case,' the Prime Minister decided, 'I think we should draft fresh instructions for her to restrain her martial instincts and continue her efforts to keep a lid on the situation. To be completely honest, I must confess that at this moment the situation in Silesia is clearly of secondary concern. In the end, we could afford to simply let the Andermani have the entire Confederacy without suffering any irreparable damage to our interests. Even our commercial interests would survive with only minor losses, especially in light of the offsetting access we've just gained to the Talbott Cluster and the shipping lanes on that side of the League.'

'I agree,' Descroix said decisively. 'And if that's settled, I suggest we turn our attention to a matter of primary concern.'

No one needed to ask which matter she had in mind.

'Very well,' High Ridge agreed. 'Would you care to open the discussion, then, Elaine?'

'If you want.' Descroix folded her hands on the document holder in front of her and looked around the conference room.

'My staff has completed its analysis of Pritchart's latest note,' she announced. 'Needless to say, the distracting effect of Harrington's report from Silesia has scarcely helped, but I set up three separate teams to evaluate it. After they'd finished their initial work, I had all three reports combined for final analysis by a fourth study group.

'The conclusion those analysts have reached is that this note represents an effort to set up the moral justification to support its threat to break off negotiations if we don't accede immediately to their demands.'

Complete silence greeted her announcement. It was the heavy silence of gloom, not the silence of shock, because everyone in that conference room had already guessed what the 'experts' were going to tell them.

'What do you think they'll do after they break off negotiations—assuming, of course, that that's what they actually intend to do?' New Kiev asked.

'If they break off negotiations for a peace treaty, Marisa,' Descroix replied with an edge of exasperation, 'they really only have one choice, don't they?'

'You think they'd actually resume operations,' New Kiev said, sufficiently focused in her anxiety that she failed to take umbrage at the Foreign Secretary's tone.

'I think that's the only alternative to talking to us they really have,' Descroix responded in an unwontedly serious tone, forgetting, however briefly, her antipathy for the Chancellor of the Exchequer in light of her own worries.

'But you've assured us that they don't have the technical capability to fight us, Edward,' New Kiev said, turning to Janacek.

'What I've said,' the First Lord said, cursing mentally as the countess put her finger on what, whether he'd cared to admit it or not, had always been the most problematical aspect of ONI's estimates of the Havenite navy's capabilities, 'was that all available intelligence data suggested to us that their technology remains significantly inferior to our own. In fact, that's what our latest information still indicates. Unfortunately, the fact that we believe that to be true—or even the fact that it actually is true—doesn't necessarily mean Theisman and his advisers agree with us. It could be that they're overestimating their own capabilities, or under estimating ours. In either of those cases, they may be advising their civilian authorities that they do have the capacity to successfully resume operations against us.'

'And if they do?' New Kiev pressed.

'If they do,' Janacek admitted unwillingly, 'they'll hurt us. Mind you, Admiral Chakrabarti and ONI remain confident that we would defeat them in the end, whatever they may believe they might accomplish. But defeating them won't be as easy as it was during Operation Buttercup, and the casualties and ship losses will almost certainly be significantly higher.'

'That's terrible,' New Kiev said softly. Which, Janacek reflected, was probably one of the most superfluous things even she'd ever said.

'It certainly is,' Descroix said. 'If they're stupid enough to do something that suicidal, public opinion here at home will never understand that it's not our fault they chose to commit suicide. All the public will see it is that the war has started all over again. The Centrists and Crown Loyalists will eat it up with a spoon!'

'I hardly think public opinion should be our greatest concern just now, Elaine!' New Kiev half-snapped. 'From what Edward's just said, we can anticipate heavy casualties—thousands of them!'

'I'm scarcely overlooking that aspect of it, Marisa,' Descroix shot back. 'But if Pritchart and her advisers choose to attack us, the blood of every one of those casualties will be on her hands, not ours! In the end, I'm sure history will bear out that verdict. But in the meantime, we have to be concerned with our ability to continue to govern effectively in the face of such a crisis.'

She glared at New Kiev, who returned her fiery stare with interest, and High Ridge frowned thunderously. The last thing he needed was for the members of his Cabinet to turn on one another. As Descroix said, the ability of the Government to continue to function effectively in the face of a possible Havenite attack was crucial. And, in the longer run, none of the members of his coalition could afford to quarrel with one another if they were to have any hope of surviving the disastrous political consequences of such an attack.

'Please, Marisa, Elaine!' He shook his head. 'Both of you have voiced perfectly legitimate concerns. Marisa, all of us feel horrible over the possibility of heavy loss of life among our naval personnel. Of course we do! And we'll do everything we can to minimize casualties. But if we suffer them anyway, it will be because someone else forced military action upon us, not because we chose to go back to war. And that means Elaine is also correct that our primary responsibility as the leaders of Her Majesty's Government in the face of such an attack must be to insure the smooth continuation of our ability to govern.'