minutes passed before she could concentrate adequately on Isaacs's remarks. Isaacs outlined the associated sonar data and the behaviour it portrayed. Whereas the seismic signal was lost in the mantle, the sonar signal proceeded along the extrapolated path to the ocean surface, disappeared for about forty seconds and then retraced its path to the ocean bottom where the seismic signal was picked up once more.
'On the basis of such data,' Isaacs continued, 'about three weeks ago a Navy destroyer was sent to investigate a site of the predicted surfacings. At its first station it recorded and relayed a signal typical of the one I just described. It then took up a position near a second predicted point of surfacing.'
Isaacs paused and looked around at his audience. 'Our data is incomplete, but at approximately the predicted time of surfacing, the ship exploded, capsized and sank. Two hundred thirty-six of the crew were lost.'
Most of the men to whom he spoke stared down at their hands or off to various spots in the room. Only Leems and Runyan kept their eyes on Isaacs.
'There's some evidence that the turbines exploded. There's no proof that the sinking of the ship was related to its mission, but the circumstantial evidence and other events suggest to me that that possibility must be strongly considered.
'We have seen in hindsight that a related event probably occurred to the Soviet aircraft carrier Novorossiisk last April. It was in the Mediterranean on the trajectory Dr Danielson described and at the right time, as nearly as we can tell. Something punctured a small hole through it vertically a few millimetres to a centimetre across and triggered extensive fire damage. There was an associated sonar signal. We suggested a meteorite, but the Soviets rejected the idea: we're not sure why. In any case, that event began an escalating and very dangerous conflict with the Soviets. We needn't go into that here, but to say that the Soviets mistakenly blamed us for the damage to the carrier. Besides direct physical damage, ignorance of the true nature of this phenomenon threatens us with other indirectly related, but very real perils.'
Isaacs paused and scanned around the group.
'It's imperative that we understand this phenomenon for its intrinsic menace, and to contain this related confrontation with the Soviets.'
He looked at them again, satisfied he had made the point. 'To summarize the picture we currently have, then,' said Isaacs, 'some influence moves along a line fixed in space. It travels through the earth or the ocean where its passage can be detected with seismographs or sonar, respectively. It seems to reverse just above the earth's surface and then return on a parallel path. There is evidence that this influence is responsible for puncturing a hole several millimetres across through solid steel. And there is every reason to think that it is something that is an immediate threat to life and property and, indirectly, to our political stability.'
Leems had listened carefully to this extended reply to his first question and raised another.
'If this phenomenon is as dangerous as you indicate, why haven't there been widespread reports of damage? If it really surfaces regularly, that's about eighteen times a day somewhere on earth.'
'I agree that's a point of interest,' replied Isaacs, 'and Dr Danielson has had another important insight in that regard which she just told me about this morning. We think the answer is that, for the most part, the damage is of a curiously limited nature, and the locus on the earth's surface passes through relatively sparsely occupied territory. You've noticed, I suppose, that we are very nearly on the track here in La Jolla. From Son Diego the path stretches across the southwest United States , where there are few people, although it does pass through Dallas/Fort Worth. The southeast United States is also not too densely populated. The nearest big cities to the path are Macon , Georgia and Charleston , South Carolina , both somewhat to the north. From there the path goes across the Atlantic, intersecting Africa south of Casablanca then cutting across North Africa and into the Mediterranean. It passes through the Middle East, but again misses the big cities, going south of Haifa and Esfahan. From there it goes across Afghanistan and Pakistan and through the Himalayas. The path cuts through the heart of China , but misses major population centres. If there were incidents in the rural areas there, as for many of the other affected countries, we might very well hear nothing of it. The path intersects Nagasaki and then proceeds across the Pacific. The story is very much the same for the locus in the southern hemisphere. Lots of ocean, relatively little population density.
'So I suspect most events go unobserved, and that many which are observed go unreported. The probability of a surfacing twice in the same place is small. To any single witness it would be an isolated event with little meaning.
'What Dr Danielson has pointed out is that the seismic signal should come up within a region of high population density occasionally, increasing the chances of observing some associated phenomena. She predicts that the trajectory of the seismic wave will intersect a position within the city of Nagasaki this coming Thursday, July 8, Japanese time. On July 26 a similar event should take place in Dallas.'
'Well, you clearly want to put some observers at those sites,' said Leems, coldly. 'Aren't you jumping the 'gun, talking to us now without that data?'
Isaacs stared at Leems for a long moment, then replied in an equally cool tone. 'As I said, the predictions were made after this trip was scheduled. I'm hoping the events which have already transpired will give you some clue to tell us what to look for.'
'Well, what about this business of sidereal time then: what do you make of that?' asked Gantt, attempting to head off Leems's negativism.
'That's one of the crucial issues we would like to raise with this group,' Isaacs replied to him. 'The timing seems to be so special that it must be an important clue, but we haven't been able to utilize it. Perhaps we could get some comment now from you.' He swung his hand in invitation around the room.
'Well, Alex — what the hell?' Gantt turned to address Runyan on the sofa.
Runyan scratched his thick beard. 'I'm working on it,' he replied in a testy tone overlaid with humour, picking up the cue from Gantt. There was a general chuckle. 'The sidereal tune would normally indicate an extraterrestrial source. That seems outlandish in this context, but I guess we should kick it around. I deduce we're under attack by an extraterrestrial army stationed on Alpha Cancri aiming tachyonic earthquake beams at us.' The chuckles turned to guffaws. Isaacs smiled wryly, recalling his own fatigued fantasy.
Noldt asked, 'How about a Jupiter effect? Is there an alignment of planets that would cause a tidal or some other effect which would be associated with a fixed direction in the sky?'
'Jupiter effect?' Isaacs queried and Gantt turned to answer him.
'The Jupiter effect is supposed to be a terrestrial upheaval associated with an alignment of the great planets every two hundred years. One version has it that this alignment causes solar storms which eject particles affecting the polar atmosphere. Associated changes in air pressure are supposed to trigger earthquakes.'
'I don't believe any of that,' Gantt went on, 'and have even more difficulty seeing how it could enter here. The regular tides should swamp any such effect. I suppose this might be a resonance of some kind, but it would have to be completely unprecedented.'
'Where's Jupiter now?' asked Runyan. 'Would you have noticed a change due to its motion over the time base you have?'
Isaacs deferred to Danielson. 'Jupiter is about forty degrees away from the direction we're talking about,' Danielson replied. 'That may not mean anything if a resonance is involved. A preferred direction that's a mean of the moon and the sun and Jupiter might be involved. Over the last three months the earth has moved far enough to rule out a preferred direction with respect to the sun, but Jupiter moves more slowly. I'm not sure we could rule that out.'
'Jupiter would have moved through two or three degrees,' Runyan stated, having done a quick mental calculation.
'That's a shift of over a hundred miles along the earth's surface,' Danielson replied. 'If that's the case, we can just about eliminate the possibility of alignment of the trajectory we see with the position of Jupiter.'
Runyan continued thinking out loud. 'The twenty-three degree angle of the earth's equator with respect to the ecliptic is purely random — there's no other solar system or astronomical connection — ruling out the accidental location of Polaris. A fixed angle of thirty-three degrees with respect to the earth's equator means even less. This thing has to be basically terrestrial. And yet sidereal. I'll put it back to Ellison. What the hell?'
'How do you know the Russians aren't behind this somehow?' Leems asked. 'It seems like some kind of beam technology could be involved, and they invented the techniques. A satellite could be rigged to fire at a precise point in orbit so that it would look as if it always fired from the same position with respect to the stars. As Alex just
