wave. That's what was supposed to cause the Tungus blast itself. But then when the hole went through the earth it would have generated seismic waves that would have pinned seismographs all over the earth, and while the 'Fungus event itself was registered, nothing like the passage of a supersonic black hole occurred.
'Finally, you can trace the angle of impact from the pattern of flattening of the trees. Any such black hole should have reemerged in the Baltic Sea and blown Norwegian fishing boats out of the water. From all reports, they fished peacefully that day.
'So the hypothesis of a black hole from space ultimately made no sense there.' Runyan looked directly at Noldt again. 'And it makes no sense here either for the same reasons. The velocity would be too high. But whereas a low speed black hole would not have caused the Tungus event, a low speed black hole fits what we've seen here.' He nodded towards Isaacs and Danielson.
Noldt thought for a moment. 'Well,' he said, 'suppose the universe is littered with these things, and we just happened to have the bad luck to finally overtake one slowly, and it settled in.'
'We don't know anything about the distribution of such holes in space, of course,' said Runyan. 'No evidence for them has ever been observed. To have enough small black holes to make the interaction you describe probable, I would think they would have to be so densely distributed that we would have noticed many other astronomical effects.'
'I don't understand what you are saying,' stated Noldt.
'What is the alternative? Surely such a thing doesn't occur spontaneously on earth?'
'No, I don't see how it possibly could,' agreed Runyan.
'I don't see how it could have occurred naturally on or off of the earth.' He paused, unable to avoid sounding portentous, and somewhat embarrassed at doing so. He was determined not to speak next.
After a moment, Leems spoke up with an edge in his voice. 'If we accept your arguments up to this point, then we're forced to the conclusion that this thing was manufactured. Is that what you're saying?'
Runyan nodded, but remained silent as all eyes shifted towards him. At last he said, 'That's the second conclusion I've reached. I think we must allow for the possibility unless it can be rigorously ruled out.'
Again Runyan became silent as he exchanged glances with his colleagues, desiring to support, but not lead the discussion at this critical juncture.
'There are two possibilities then, aren't there?' asked Fletcher. 'It's man-made or...' He paused and finally said in a flat voice, 'Or it's not.'
'Omigod!' exclaimed Noldt. 'You mean this thing could have been manufactured by extraterrestrials and... and planted here?'
Several voices were raised in simultaneous protest.
'This is getting out of hand!'
'UFO's again! That's very hard to believe!'
Isaacs had a flash of memory of the AFTAC headquarters in Florida where he had first heard of the seismic signal. He couldn't believe what he was hearing. How could that simple little rattle in the earth be related to the insanity that was being expressed in this room! Then he thought of Zamyatin. Whatever was going on, he couldn't feature explaining black holes to the KGB chief, never amid trying to convince him they were being fired by nasty little green men from outer space. He shook his head and pinched his eyes with thumb and finger. This discussion just had no connection whatever with the real world of geopolitical confrontation with which he dealt every day.
Runyan cut in. 'I'm sure we agree that the whole situation is hard to believe!'
'The energy requirements to make such a thing must be gigantic,' said Leems. 'Surely the suggestion that it's artificial is absurd.'
'It would take a lot of energy,' Runyan agreed. 'Don't you think it's fair to conclude then,' Leems pressed, 'that such a thing would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to create? I have a strong suspicion we're on the wrong track altogether despite your argument here.'
'I don't deny that point,' replied Runyan. 'It's very difficult to conceive how such a thing could be done.'
'Still,' argued Noldt, 'it's not that it's impossible, just that we can't see how it could be accomplished technologically. Isn't that correct?'
'I think that's correct,' said Runyan. 'We're talking about very large amounts of energy, but not an infinite amount. In principle, it could be done. After all, we're fairly comfortable with the notion of it happening spontaneously in an astronomical context. Also, the large energy you're thinking about is based on brute force compression. There may be more elegant means to the end.'
'Then,' said Noldt with a barely suppressed excitement, 'since we see no way to do it on earth, aren't we forced to consider the possibility that such a thing was made by extra-terrestrials and put in the earth for some purpose?'
'Before we invoke some malevolent intent, terrestrial or otherwise,' Leems said with scarcely veiled sarcasm, 'I must say I'm not satisfied that we really know enough to rule out a natural origin. Even if we accept that we're dealing with a black hole, and I'm as yet far from convinced of the necessity, how can we eliminate the possibility that this thing started out exceedingly small a long time ago? Maybe the earth even condensed around it, and it took all this time, five billion years, for it to grow to its present size.'
'I have two responses to that,' Runyan said. 'One is that the universe was already quite old when the earth was born. There were no special conditions at the time to create small black holes, and any born in the Big Bang should have long since evaporated.'
'Well then, figure out a way to prevent evaporation,'
Leems said harshly. 'That still seems more likely than insisting on some intelligent plot at work.'
'Maybe so, maybe so,' Runyan said slowly. 'The other thing that bothers me is that the growth time for this thing is relatively long. I find it peculiar that this phenomenon has only just been discovered, since the technology to detect it has been around for some time.'
'Are you saying that this dung has just been put here recently?' asked Noldt. He half-glanced over his shoulder as if expecting to catch a glimpse of an alien presence.
After a moment's hesitation, Runyan spoke again. 'I'm disturbed that we're skirting a bit close to the edge of reason here with too few facts to support us.' He cleared his throat, then continued. 'Perhaps we should set aside for a while the issue of how such a dung could come to be and try to consider some other factors. We should discuss what we can do to learn more about this object.'
'I've been thinking about that,' said Fletcher, 'as a remedy for incipient hysteria.'
Pat Danielson had been following the discussion intently. She had felt herself becoming more edgy as the tension in the room increased. She had read some popular accounts of astronomy and their discussions of black holes and thought she was beginning to make some sense from Runyan's remarks, but the idea that he would leap from the evidence she had compiled to this conclusion still left her stunned. And now talk of manufacturing such a dung. That just couldn't be. She joined the nervous laughter after Fletcher's remark and could sense the more relaxed mood that spread through the room.
Fletcher continued, 'There should be quite a bit one could do by adopting your hypothesis as a working assumption and constructing appropriate models. If we could predict the behaviour of a small black hole, or whatever, orbiting through the earth, we could compare such predictions with the seismic data and other observations and perhaps get a much better idea of just what we are dealing with. Ideally, we should be able to prove your hypothesis true — or false.'
'Ah, a voice of reason,' said Leems, in a more lively tone. 'I don't know much about seismic waves, but it still seems to me that they should be modelled as well, to see whether the data that have been reported can be accounted for as some natural seismic phenomenon. The data are admittedly quite bizarre, but surely our seismologist friends don't know everything about the workings of the inner earth. Maybe there are special fissures or lattice works that channel waves in this special way.
'I do concede, though, Alex,' Leems continued, 'that since you have let this particular genie of yours out of the bottle, it should be pursued.'
'That's right,' agreed Noldt, 'if we are, in fact, dealing with a black hole and it originated on the earth's surface, then, if I have the picture correctly, it should return roughly to its point of origin.'
'I wish you wouldn't assume it was made on the earth's surface,' interrupted Leems.
