Praetorians). Trade flourishes. Men go about their business in ease and safety. The harvests come and go, gathered and fruitful. Italy basks in sunlight. Wealth accumulates. The pleasures of art, of the theatre and of the circus are widely enjoyed. Everything has been, to use a favourite word of Augustus', consolidated.

And yet the basic question should be asked, though I dare only to put it in the silence of my own mind: why are people behaving in the way they do? Why do they do all these things, which, taken together, give the impression that we have achieved a united society, giving happy and willing support to a benevolent government? Any wise man must find the answer self-evident: they are driven to this simulation of content by fear. We are dominated by fear: fear of the barbarians without and within. It is fear which compels men, even of great family, to perform degrading acts of self-criticism and self-abnegation, fear which informs the insincerity of our public life. It is fear which prevents men, even senators – perhaps most of all senators – from saying what they think, even in private; they are afraid someone might inform against them.

Of course this is no ordinary fear. We are not all shaking with daily terror. On the contrary, the surface of our life is just what it seems; look at the Senate and you see rich, happy, self-confident citizens. No, we can take nothing for granted, not even love, affection, the loyalty of one's own family and friends. Rome throbs with a pervasive anxiety. There is no one who is not vulnerable.

Not even the emperor. It was fear that drove Augustus to turn so savagely on his daughter and her lovers; fear for his own creation that caused him to arrange the murder of his grandson Agrippa Postumus, so that, as a result of his prudence, I inherited a legacy of blood. And Agrippina, Sejanus assures me, holds me responsible for her brother's death, which she ascribes to my order, rather than her grandfather's.

'She is, according to Friso,' Sejanus said, 'forever hinting to Germanicus that you are the enemy of her branch of the family, and persuading him that he cannot trust you.'

So the corrupting fear infects even what men have started to call the imperial family.

The fear is widespread. Hardly a day passes that I am not assailed by anonymous and scurrilous verses. Daily, while I resided in Rome, informers found means to approach me with evidence of seditious talk and plotting. For the most part I paid no attention. When I was told that a man had been speaking against me, I replied that the ability to think and speak as one wished was the test of a free country. What was the result of my enunciation of this impeccably Republican sentiment? According to Romanius Hispo, a man of obscure birth but some merit whom I found useful on account of the store of information he habitually collected, men saw my reply as a sign of dissimulation. I was encouraging free speech, they said, in order to be able to identify my enemies. It was a lure to encourage them to betray themselves. Such was the demoralising effect of fear. But is it any wonder, in these circumstances, if I too began to see enemies on every side? Of course people were ready to use the treason laws for their own advantage, hoping either simply to ruin those they disliked or envied, or to profit from the rewards which the law decreed should go to informers. Some of the accusations brought were in themselves trivial. For instance, a charge was brought against one Falanius, a member of the equestrian order, of insulting the divinity of Augustus. He had, it was said, admitted among the worshippers of Augustus a certain actor in musical comedies named Cassius, who was, notoriously, also a male prostitute, and he was accused, secondly, of disposing of a statue of Augustus, when selling some garden property. At the same time a friend of his, Rubrius, was charged with blasphemy against the divinity of Augustus.

I deprecated such charges, and informed the consuls, who were considering them, that in my opinion Augustus had not been voted divine honours in order to ruin Roman citizens. I pointed out that Cassius, however deplorable his private life, was an accomplished actor, who had taken part in the games organised by my mother, the Augusta, in her late husband's honour. As for the blasphemy, I said, the gods must see to their own wrongs.

Could anyone take exception to my common sense? Of course they could. I was accused of displaying jealousy of Augustus. Tiberius would be a damned sight quicker to avenge insults to his own honour, they said.

In fact I wasn't. Romanius Hispo informed me that the senator Marcus Granius Marcellus was spreading the rumour that I had dismissed the charges against Falanius merely because Cassius was my own catamite. He added that Marcellus had placed his own effigy above that of Augustus and myself and was saying that I had prepared a plan to send leading senators such as Scaurus and Gallus into exile. Though I demurred, Romanius insisted on bringing a charge of treason against Marcellus. I announced that I would hear the evidence in the Senate, and, on this occasion, vote openly and on oath, for I hoped that such a statement would check merely malicious accusations by exposing those who brought them to public obloquy. What happened? My friend Gnaeus Calpurnius Piso exposed the hypocrisy of the Senate in a couple of sentences. 'Caesar,' he said, 'will you vote first or last? If first, I shall have your lead to follow. If last, I am afraid that I may inadvertently vote against you.' I was grateful to him for his intervention; it convinced me that it was impossible that the Senate should give a fair trial to anyone accused of treason. Fear would hold them back from expressing their true opinions. In disgust, I voted that Marcellus be acquitted of treason, though, technically, he was guilty.

These were all minor worries, though symptomatic of the disease which gripped the state, when compared with the problem that Germanicus posed me. His victories in Germany secured no solid or enduring advantage, though to do him honour and enhance his reputation I was prepared to exaggerate their value, and so decreed him a triumph. I hoped also, I confess, that so public a statement of my regard might reconcile him and Agrip-pina to me, and at least dilute the suspicion with which they regarded me. Vain hope.

I had another reason however. My nephew was eager to prosecute the war further and launch another expedition – his fourth – against the Germans. There was no prospect that he would meet with substantial success. His campaigns to date had fortified me in the opinion at which Augustus and I had independently arrived: that the prudent limits of empire had been attained, and that plans for further expansion should be abandoned. Now the ardour of an impetuous youth was calling our judgment into question. It was intolerable, and could not be permitted.

Livia was for a sharp response. 'He must be put in his place, compelled to understand that his position is subsidiary. How dare this callow youth set his opinion up against yours…-.?'

She sat upright in her chair, and rapped the ferrule of her ebony cane on the floor. Her knuckles gleamed white, her head, more than ever like that of a noble bird of prey, quivered. That, and a certain tremor in her voice, betrayed her age.

'Germanicus has friends, admirers, supporters,' I said. 'He may also have secured the personal allegiance of his soldiers.' 'That itself is treason.'

'I do not say he has done so formally by extracting a personal oath. But it has amounted to that.' 'Your father would never have permitted it.'

Perhaps not, but Livia now lived in the imagination, where all things are possible and difficulties dissolve of their own accord, or are dispelled by an act of will. If only, I thought, I understood Germanicus as well as I understood my mother. But I had no difficulty in understanding Agrippina: she was filled with implacable hostility towards me. I poured out honours upon the young man. I caused an arch to be dedicated beside the Temple of Saturn, in celebration of the recapture, under his leadership and my auspices, of the eagles lost with Varus. I arranged that his triumph should be celebrated the following May with unrivalled splendour. The procession included spoils, prisoners, and pictures of mountains, rivers and battles. To my displeasure, Agrippina insisted on accompanying her husband in his chariot; everyone commented on the noble sight they presented surrounded by their five children, smiling to be the centre of such adulation. In my nephew's name I distributed three hundred sesterces a head to the population, and Rome rang that evening with wine and song. I announced that to do the young man further honour, I myself would share his consulship.

Germanicus was flattered by all this attention; he revelled in his popularity. Everyone fawned upon him, and he believed they meant what they said. Some did, of course; but the generality was prompted by fear. People thought he was the coming man. They were awed by the power which they believed he could deploy.

But, though flattered, he was not diverted from his argument that the German war should be renewed. Agrippina urged this course, feeding his vanity. She gave dinner-parties at which she strove to seduce senators into agreement. She did not do so by the charm of her person. Her features were sharp and her voice harsh; she had none of her mother's sensual nature. She was indeed ostentatiously faithful to her husband, and cruelly critical of ladies who lapsed from monogamous chastity. The truth is, she was a prig.

I did all I could to appease the hostility of the young couple. I consulted Germanicus' mother, Antonia, with whom I had always been on good terms, a woman of exemplary sense and virtue. She confessed to me that she found her daughter-in-law 'difficult'.

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