I got them for her, and she began to write.
“That’s everyone’s initial deal,” she said. “Victor bets first. He’s gonna bet a lot with those two queens.”
“How do you know?”
“Because that’s what he has to do, if he’s a decent player. And he is. I’ll call. And Danny—Danny Squire, by the way. Recognize the name?”
I did, from all those TV commercials for Squire Lexus, Squire BMW, Squire Porsche, Squire every-car-I-could-never-afford.
“The car guy?” I asked.
“Yep. Total asshole. Anyway, either he’ll call or, more likely, he’ll raise with those jacks. You’ll fold. Then comes the flop.”
She wrote some more.
I assessed the hand. “Now Danny and Victor both have three of a kind.”
“That’s right. Three jacks for Danny, three queens for Victor. Those are two very strong hands. Danny bets first, and with those jacks he’s almost guaranteed to go all in.”
“With three jacks?”
“The math is on his side,” Ellen said. “He’ll know he almost certainly has the best hand so far, and he’ll want to scare away anyone else from sticking around long enough to get lucky later in the hand. It’s smart poker, and Danny’s a loose player to begin with. I’ve seen him go all in with less. And when he does, Victor has to go all in—with three queens, he has the nuts.”
“The who?”
“The nuts,” she said. “The best possible hand at that point.”
I looked at her drawing some more. “This doesn’t seem guaranteed,” I said.
Ellen looked, too, but she saw something else, something deeper. “They’re gamblers, Natalie. They’re gonna gamble. Except, really? To them? This hand isn’t even gambling. One glance at their cards and it’ll be automatic. Like an algorithm—they have to go with the odds when the odds are this much in their favor. I’ve seen Danny go all in when he shouldn’t have, but he’s never not gone all in when he should. And only an idiot folds when he has the nuts, and Victor is no idiot. But if for some reason neither one of them goes all in? Then I’ll do it. And they’ll have to follow, because they’ll have the two best possible hands at that point, and they aren’t going to give away their money for no reason.”
“Why jacks and queens?” I asked. “Why not really high cards? Aces and kings?”
“It all has to be believable,” she said. “When the dealing and betting are over and everyone lays down the cards, it has to look like an actual poker hand. The big hands you always see in movies, royal flushes beating out four aces … it’s absurd. Real poker doesn’t come down to billion-to-one hands. We’re giving them very strong hands, the kind of hands that will get any decent player betting big and—this is important—betting early in the hand, because they’ll want to scare away the other players before those final two community cards get dealt. That’s why players go all in: it’s an aggressive move, but it’s also defense.” I wasn’t dubious, exactly, just a step or so behind. “I’ve studied these guys for a year,” she said. “It’s gonna work. Victor and Danny? Neither one would ever admit it but they can’t stand each other. They’re gonna be especially aggressive in a hand where they both think they can stick it to the other one. Trust me, this hand is gonna get them into a war. And when the hand is over, and they’ve both lost to my flush in hearts, there won’t be anything suspicious about any of it.”
I nodded, looking over the cards some more. “Okay,” I said. “I think I get it.”
“Good.” She smiled. “Of course, the next card will be another heart, any heart, giving me my flush, so I’ll beat them both.”
“As long as we make sure the final card isn’t a jack or a queen,” she said, “or a pair with the turn card, I’m guaranteed to win. Do you still follow?”
I thought I did. Still, there was a glaring problem with her plan. “You’re talking about controlling a hell of a lot of cards: three jacks, three queens, plus three additional hearts … I can’t control that many cards during a single shuffle.” I was damn good at controlling cards, but that many? In a specific order? “There’s just no way.”
“Neither can I,” she said. “No one can. So what you’re gonna do is palm some cards off and collect the rest when the deck comes back around to your shuffle again.”
To palm cards off the top would mean playing with less than a full deck. It would mean keeping those palmed cards on my body—pocketing them or sitting on them—until I had all of them, at which point I would have to add them back into the deck so Ellen could execute the false deal. If anything went wrong, if one of the guys were to count the cards and see the deck was short, it could mean me getting caught red-handed.
“This doesn’t sound much better than using a cold deck,” I said.
“Palming is a risk,” she said, “but I’m gonna help you with that. I’ve palmed cards in game situations for years and never once been caught. Do you use the gambler’s cop?”
This was a palm where you used the edge of the table to help conceal a card. I’d always assumed it was unnecessarily risky because part of the card is exposed beneath the table. “No.”
“Why not? My god, you magicians.” She shook her head. “It’s perfect for me because my hands are small, but even with your big hands, it’s a better move than the classic palm when you’re seated at a table. Trust me.
