To illustrate this approach, I made a PowerPoint slide that had gauges on a pipe, each measuring a specific metric, such as hospital capacity and infection rate, and a valve at the end to illustrate the pace of the reopening. If the gauges showed upticks in hospitalizations or infections, the valve would be tightened. And vice versa.
First, we started with the ten regions of New York State and set seven metrics that each region needed to meet before starting to reopen: (1) decline in total hospitalizations; (2) decline in deaths; (3) decline in number of new hospitalizations; (4) sufficient hospital bed capacity; (5) sufficient ICU bed capacity; (6) sufficient diagnostic testing capacity; and (7) sufficient contact tracing capacity.
Second, we set four phases to the reopening, starting with low-risk, more essential businesses and gradually moving to higher-risk, less essential businesses. Phase 1 would allow low-risk businesses within construction and manufacturing and agriculture. Phase 2 would allow some nonessential businesses including retail (but not malls) as well as outdoor dining and takeout—with strict rules in place. Phase 3 allowed for restaurants and personal care services, like hair salons, to reopen—again, with strict rules about mask wearing, testing, and social distancing. Phase 4, which we wouldn’t get to until midsummer, allowed for professional sports without fans, and, importantly, schools could reopen, but this would be a complicated and ongoing discussion in every district in the state.
Each phase would be separated by two weeks, which was the period of time needed to determine if the virus spread increased due to the increased activity, to detect such a spread, and to see if there was any effect on the hospital system. Each region would continue to need a certain number of tests to be performed on a daily and weekly basis. We recruited a team of global experts, including Dr. Michael Osterholm from the University of Minnesota and Dr. Samir Bhatt from Imperial College in the U.K., who, before giving a region the green light to move from one phase to the next, would review our data and then advise whether it was safe to continue the reopening of that region of the state. Counties within each of the ten regions would work together, and regional control rooms would be responsible for coordinating hospitals, testing, contact tracing, compliance enforcement, business, education, and data collection.
I said we needed to do “a reopening book” to distribute to local governments across the state. A “book” had no specific definition, but in my office it meant more than a discussion, more than a memo, more than a twenty-page paper, and that meant it would take a lot of effort. I spent hours working on drafts with the team. The result was our NY Forward: A Guide to Reopening New York & Building Back Better. It was a 156-page book complete with charts and graphs, just like my daily PowerPoints in the briefings. We printed five hundred copies to distribute; I wanted people to be able to hold it in their hands, not just click on a link, although they could do that too.
Additionally, I insisted on posting all these metrics and the daily data online with an easily readable dashboard so that every New Yorker and local elected official could understand them and see the impact of the reopening on the virus transmission. This way, if we had to slow down the reopening, we would all be operating from the same set of facts. I would also review the data daily at the press briefing. We would announce any troublesome occurrences in the data in real time so the people of that region would know what was going on. If we all have the same information, then we are all on the same journey. Governor, mayor, local supervisor, business leaders, newspaper reporters, small business owner—if we all knew the same things at the same time, we could openly discuss all decisions before they were made. That was the ideal relationship between citizens and their government: a relationship of trust and credibility.
I don’t know how many people actually read NY Forward. It might not have been a best seller; that wasn’t the point. It existed. It was not a theory or a slogan. It was sound government policy built on facts.
I had said at a briefing the week before that “how New York reopens is not an emotional question, it’s not a political question, it’s not an anecdotal question, it’s not a gut instinct question. Follow the facts and follow the data.” We now had a sound plan that implemented that vision. I was confident that we were right and we would do it our way: damn the torpedoes and damn the politics. New York would reopen smartly.
We started on May 15 opening phase 1 in much of upstate New York, followed four days later by western New York, then the capital region, then the Hudson valley, and then Long Island. Much of the state would already be in phase 2 before New York City was in phase 1 because its infection rate had been so high and because of its uniquely high population density and crowding. It would take several weeks to get to phase 4 across the state, and even then we’d be watching the numbers daily and vigilantly for hot spots and flare-ups.
MAY 17 | 1,889 NEW CASES | 5,897 HOSPITALIZED | 139 DEATHS
“Getting a test is easy. Even a governor can do it!”
OPERATIONS, OPERATIONS, OPERATIONS. ALL THE plans and all the briefings depended on being able to deliver. Even in government, the bottom line is still the bottom line. Can you do what you said you would do? Can you perform?
To me, this was a basic credibility issue, both personally and politically. As a leader, I needed to be able to accomplish what I proposed. I either produced or I failed. I was either another empty-suit, windbag
