The new parliament first sat in January 1929 against the background of a fresh strike by the Timber Workers Union. The government’s precarious position was underlined four days later when a House of Representatives vote was tied, with three independents supporting the opposition along with former prime minister Billy Hughes, who crossed the floor to join with Labor—Hughes had felt disaffection towards both Page and Bruce since his removal six years earlier, and he had temporarily returned to his Labor roots in opposing the government’s legislation to deal with the rolling industrial stoppages. The government won the day with the speaker’s casting vote, but it was a sign of things to come.
Hughes had two other government members, George Maxwell and Percy Stewart, who were prepared to cross the floor with him and vote against the government when the circumstances were right, even if this meant the fall of the administration. They were joined by former Country Party leader William McWilliams, who had been feeling disaffected for some time and was also willing to cross the floor when he felt strongly enough. Inevitably, given the controversies of the time, industrial relations reform would prove the flashpoint.
At the May 1929 Premiers’ Conference, the government offered the states three options for dealing with industrial relations: firstly, the federal government could vacate the industrial relations field entirely and leave industrial regulation to the states; secondly, another referendum on transferring powers to the Commonwealth could be held; and finally, the states could voluntarily give up their powers and transfer them to the Commonwealth. The states refused to voluntarily transfer their powers, and the prospects for a successful referendum appeared little better than they had been for the previous attempt. Accordingly, the Bruce–Page government took the decision to relinquish all their powers in industrial relations and hand them over to the states. But before this could be successfully transacted, it would be necessary to have the relevant legislation pass through the House of Representatives.
As the industrial laws dispute consumed the government, Page was also fighting another battle. He encountered the same fierce resistance that many treasurers have experienced when resorting to a tax increase that targets a particular segment of the economy. In Page’s case, he targeted one of the most powerful economic groups in the country at the time: cinema owners. In the days when most Australians got their news and entertainment from a visit to the talking pictures, a tax on the importation of movies was always going to prove a courageous political move.
In 1929 the prices the world was prepared to pay for Australian exports had declined. Page needed to make up the shortfall in government revenue caused by the reduction in the terms of trade. So he decided to impose a customs duty of one and a quarter pence on each imported movie shown at the cinema. As he later wrote, ‘this was converted into a sword-thrust into our vital parts’.25
The ensuing campaign is best described by Page himself:
The foreign film companies reacted immediately and within two days of the announcement launched a campaign to defeat new imposts. This wealthy industry, with freest access to the community through every local movie theatre, for a period of two weeks featured the campaign on their screens and devoted their resources to publicity on hoardings and in the Press. Picture-goers were pressed to add their names to petitions to the Government and telegrams were sent to every member of parliament. This large scale assault on public opinion, conducted over a broken period of two weeks by sectional interest, had an immense success, but it disregarded completely the major issue of economic depression and government finance. A fortnight before the elections the campaign abruptly ended. There is evidence that the film magnates became dismayed when they saw the danger to the Government, but their initial efforts had already seduced the public mind.26
Page’s 1929 budget speech saw him defending such tax increases and a continuing budget deficit in light of the emerging world economic downturn. He also used the speech to undertake that most dangerous of risks for a treasurer: making an economic prediction. On this occasion, he made one that he surely came to regret. He noted not only that ‘sooner or later we should enter upon a period of some depression’, but also this ‘condition is merely a passing phase in our economic life’.27
While Page’s tax on movies imperilled the government’s popularity, it was industrial relations that threatened its hold on a parliamentary majority. The government’s decision to transfer its powers to the states was contained in the Maritime Industries Bill 1929. The Bill passed the House, but Hughes moved that it should not be enacted until either a referendum had been approved endorsing the transfer or the government had received a renewed mandate for its actions at a general election. The government lost the motion by one vote, having lost the support of the three independents and the four disaffected government members.
Having lost such an important vote in the House, Bruce decided to go to the people, and the people, in turn, gave an emphatic verdict. The 1929 federal election saw a huge swing against the government. The Nationalist Party holdings were reduced to eighteen seats, down from the twenty-nine with which they’d entered the election. Labor, on the other hand, went from thirty-one seats to forty-seven. Despite the swing against the government, the Country Party also managed to make gains, increasing its seats from eleven to thirteen.
The 1929 election was the first time a sitting prime minister had lost his seat. Bruce’s inability to hold the Victorian seat of Flinders was a huge political upset. Seventy-eight years later, another conservative leader, John Howard, would become the second sitting prime minister to be thanked for his service with an eviction notice served by his local electorate.
Afterwards
Page would have one of the richest and most varied post-Treasury careers of all of Australia’s treasurers. He became the country’s longest-serving member of parliament
