Horcruxes. We are not privy to Dumbledore’s vast knowledge of obscure magic, so there may well have been another possibility for Harry receiving Voldemort’s powers through the curse.

This helps exonerate Dumbledore from the charge Snape levelled at him, of raising Harry like a pig for slaughter. Up until Harry was fifteen, Dumbledore did not know that Harry would need to die. He was only keeping the prophecy from Harry, not the knowledge that Harry may have to sacrifice himself. Dumbledore was raising Harry to be a Voldemort slayer—the morality of that can still be debated, but it’s not quite as morally repugnant.

Note that even Voldemort, the one who actually made Horcruxes and is probably the world’s leading expert on them, did not realize that Harry’s scar had bits of soul in it. Voldemort didn’t realize this even after he found out about the mental connection he shared with Harry. If Voldemort didn’t come to the realization, with all the knowledge he’s privy to, it’s small wonder that it took Dumbledore a while.

Another slight point in favor of Dumbledore not knowing is a line from the very first chapter of the series, when McGonagall asks if he can do something about baby Harry’s scar: “Even if I could, I wouldn’t. Scars can come in handy.” (SS15) I believe Dumbledore truly did not suspect Harry’s scar of containing Voldemort’s soul, or he would not have been so glib about it—this is a case of irony coming from the author, not from Dumbledore himself.

Towards the end of Goblet of Fire, we see that Dumbledore is closer to figuring it all out. He says, “I have a theory, no more than that. . . . It is my belief that your scar hurts both when Lord Voldemort is near you, and when he is feeling a particularly strong surge of hatred. [. . .] Because you and he are connected by the curse that failed. [. . .] That is no ordinary scar.” (GF600)

The problem is that because Dumbledore is always deliberately keeping this information from Harry, the language used intentionally obfuscates whether Dumbledore knew about the Scarcrux. Dumbledore only ever refers to a “connection:” in the Order of the Phoenix tell-all, he says, “I guessed, fifteen years ago, when I saw the scar upon your forehead, what it might mean. I guessed that it might be the sign of a connection forged between you and Voldemort.” (OP826-827)

We don’t know whether “connected” is Dumbledore-speak for “swapped soul bits,” but either way Dumbledore is still uncertain about whether Harry’s scar is an unintentional Horcrux in Goblet of Fire. He may have his theories and guesses, but is not confident in said theory until Harry brings back confirmation that Voldemort was indeed splitting his soul multiple times. And even then, though Dumbledore formulated a theory about the Scarcrux by the beginning of OotP, he is still piecing it together through the end of 1995, unable to get confirmation and obstructed by Harry’s reluctance to actually discuss his scar hurting.

So as all this is going on, Dumbledore comes to an important realization: he needs to buy some time. And he has a pretty shrewd idea of how to do so.

Dumbledore’s Decoy

As will often come up in a discussion of the books, Order of the Phoenix was always my least favorite of the seven books. Not for any of the usual reasons: I never had issues with Harry’s fondness for CapsLock or Sirius dying. Rather, it’s because the entire book seemed rather pointless. All the other books move the story along as a whole, but what does OotP accomplish? After 800-odd pages, we have learned that. . . (drumroll, please!) Harry and Voldemort will have to kill each other! Gee, who saw that coming?

After all the hype and hoopla, we found out what should have been obvious from the first book: that the hero will defeat the villain. In vain, readers tried to find meaning in the prophecy, and flooded the HP fansites with essays in 2003 and 2004. Instead of all the Horcruxes debate, the fandom spent two years analyzing the prophecy. It was taken apart, every word analyzed and every ellipsis examined, as people looked for loopholes and alternate meanings.28

But we now have the gift of hindsight and know that there really was no dramatic revelation to be found in the prophecy. This holds true even if we build up that fourth wall again and look at it from the point of view of the characters. Yes, it’s important and significant to Harry. . . but it really should not matter that much to anyone else in the wizarding world. After all, there’s nothing really to be gleaned from it. So why all the fuss?

Well, that question is answered rather easily: the prophecy is a decoy. It serves to keep Voldemort busy. It’s Dumbledore at work, being five steps ahead of everyone else. Just like in Sorcerer’s Stone, Dumbledore likes keeping Voldemort busy and knowing what he’s up to, so he dangles a carrot in front of Voldemort’s nonexistent nose for the better part of a year.

Let’s look at Dumbledore’s point of view at the end of Goblet of Fire. Voldemort has just returned to power. And because Dumbledore knows Voldemort, Dumbledore can guess what’s on Voldemort’s long-term agenda.

Lord Voldemort’s Evil To-Do List, June 1995

Kill Harry Potter. (But do it in style.)

Kill Albus Dumbledore. With Dumbledore gone, no one will be able to oppose me. This will also make achieving point #1 much easier.

Spring Death Eaters from Azkaban. Need more loyal and intelligent supporters. This will help to achieve point #2. Not to mention, Bellatrix Lestrange is easy on the eyes.

Take over Ministry of Magic. Those fools are ignoring my return, which will make killing/Imperiusing them very easy. I will now be supreme ruler of the wizarding Britain! Muahahahaha!!

Start Mudblood genocide.

Live evilly ever after.

We know this based on what Voldemort ends up doing in the latter books, but Dumbledore is shrewd enough to figure it out long before the reader. Stopping all these plots would

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