Is there anything to the Mayan predictions and forecasts as written in the books of Chilam Balam? This book was created to explore that very idea. There are primarily two types of 2012 books and websites: “true believers” and “debunkers.” And both types are hyper-focused on a single date: December 21, 2012. Yet the Maya conception of time was both linear and cyclical thus 2012 was simultaneously the ending of one cycle and the beginning of another and just one stop on a timeline that stretched into the future without end. Likewise, the predictions in the Chilam Balam are not focused on this single date and can be used to make forecasts and predictions for dates far beyond 2012.
This book offers a third approach, neither “true believer” nor “debunker,” instead I will approach this subject the way an ancient Mayan priest would by looking at past events and comparing them to present-day realities in order to create the most probable scenarios and forecasts for the future. I present the latest news and scientific research to see how well these correspond to the Mayan conception of the qualities of each katun period. Just like the ancient Maya, I will study past events and try to determine patterns from which I can extrapolate possible future scenarios that are consistent with the Mayan katun prophecies. I will also explore Mayan history and mythology to see how they might influence these predictions and future scenarios. Armed with this information, you can draw your own conclusions about the Mayan calendar and its predictions for 2012 and beyond.
2. The Mayan Calendar Cycles
Did the Maya really predict the end of the world on December 21, 2012? If not, then what did the Maya actually predict for 2012?
The ancient Maya believed that civilizations went through predictable cycles. These cycles repeated every 256 years. This 256-year cycle could be broken down into thirteen 19.7-year periods (19.7 x 13 = 256) called katuns. Each katun had a name and was associated with a particular prophecy or prediction. These predictions were recorded in their prophetic books known as the Chilam Balam. (The image below is a page from one such book illustrating the thirteen katun cycles.)
Above: Copy of the Book of Chilam Balam of Ixil displayed at the Museo Nacional de Anthropologia in Mexico-City. Photo by Carlos Reusser Monsalvez.
For instance, according to the Maya we currently live in the cycle named Katun 4 Ahau that began in 1993 and ends in 2012. The cycle that begins in 2012 is named Katun 2 Ahau and ends in 2032. The next cycle is named Katun 13 Ahau and runs until 2052 and is the final katun in the present 256-year cycle that began in 1796. The katun cycle then begins again in 2052 with Katun 11 Ahau. (The predictions associated with these katuns will be discussed in Section II: The Katun Prophecies.)
The first question you might have is, “I thought the Mayan calendar ended on December 21, 2012 not in 2052?” The Maya had multiple calendars. The calendar that “ends” on December 21, 2012 is called the Long Count calendar. It consists of 13 baktuns. One baktun equals 20 katuns or 394 years. Thirteen baktuns equal 5125 years. The Long Count calendar has a “start date” of August 11, 3114 BC, which the Maya recorded as 13.0.0.0.0, and an “end date” of December 21, 2012.
Curiously, December 21, 2012 is also recorded as 13.0.0.0.0. How can this be? This is because the calendar “rolls over” like an odometer back to 1 after 13.0.0.0.0. For instance, the second day of the Long Count calendar, August 12, 3114 BC, was recorded as 0.0.0.0.1. The calendar will finally reach 13.0.0.0.0 again on December 21, 2012. Thus December 21, 2012 is the “completion” of 13 baktuns but it is not the “end” of the calendar. The calendar will once again roll over.
The Mayan katun prophecies recorded in the books of Chilam Balam are based on the Short Count calendar. The Short Count calendar consists of 13 katuns that total 256 years. The Short Count ends on Katun 13 Ahau then starts over. As you can see, the number 13 was important to the ancient Maya. This is because the number 13 represented “completion.” This is why the Long Count calendar reaching the 13th baktun on December 21, 2012 is seen as the “completion” or “end” of the current Long Count calendar cycle.
The current Short Count calendar is out-of-sync with the Long Count and does not end on December 21, 2012 but instead in 2052, forty years later. This suggests that the world will not self-destruct on 12-21-12 as has been popularized in our sensationalist news media. So what exactly did the Maya predict for the future?
3. The Science of Cycles
As noted in the previous chapters, the Maya believed a 256-year cycle governed civilizations. Interestingly, scientists have discovered a seismic cycle lasting 250 years,[3] a solar cycle that lasts approximately 250 years,[4] and an approximately 300-year cycle of impact events on Earth.[5] Could there be any connection between these 250-year cycles and the 256-year Katun cycle?
It does not take much imagination to see the connection between seismic activity and the downfall of civilizations. Not only do earthquakes destroy the physical infrastructure of civilizations but they can also produce other effects. Earthquakes can cause volcanic eruptions by destabilization. This results in a collapse of the volcano that releases built up pressure resulting in an eruption. This is exactly what occurred at Mount St. Helens in the state of Washington in 1980.
Earthquakes can also trigger massive tsunamis like the Indonesian and Japanese earthquakes in 2004 and 2011. Thus there is a clear cause-and-effect between earthquakes and the downfall of small-scale civilizations that is easy to see.
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