“Now there were, as I saw it, only three definite clues in this crime,” he continued, in almost conversational tones. “I refer of course to the forged letter, the wrapper, and the chocolates themselves. Of these the wrapper could only be helpful so far as its postmark. The hand-printed address I dismissed as useless. It could have been done by anyone, at any time. It led, I felt, nowhere. And I could not see that the chocolates or the box that contained them were of the least use as evidence. I may be wrong, but I could not see it. They were specimens of a well-known brand, on sale at hundreds of shops; it would be fruitless to attempt to trace their purchaser. Moreover any possibilities in that direction would quite certainly have been explored already by the police. I was left, in short, with only two pieces of material evidence, the forged letter and the postmark on the wrapper, on which the whole structure of proof must be erected.”
Sir Charles paused again, to let the magnitude of this task sink into the minds of the others; apparently he had overlooked the fact that his problem must have been common to all. Roger, who with difficulty had remained silent so long, interposed a gentle question.
“Had you already made up your mind as to the criminal, Sir Charles?”
“I had already answered to my own satisfaction the question I had posed to myself, to which I made reference a few minutes ago,” replied Sir Charles, with dignity but without explicitness.
“I see. You had made up your mind,” Roger pinned him down. “It would be interesting to know, so that we can follow better your way of approaching the proof. You used inductive methods then?”
“Possibly, possibly,” said Sir Charles testily. Sir Charles strongly disliked being pinned down.
He glowered for a moment in silence, to recover from this indignity.
“The task, I saw at once,” he resumed, in a sterner voice, “was not going to be an easy one. The period at my disposal was extremely limited, far-reaching enquiries were obviously necessary, my own time was far too closely engaged to permit me to make, in person, any investigations I might find advisable. I thought the matter over and decided that the only possible way in which I could arrive at a conclusion was to consider the facts of the case for a sufficient length of time till I was enabled to formulate a theory which would stand every test I could apply to it out of such knowledge as was already at my disposal, and then make a careful list of further points which were outside my own knowledge but which must be facts if my theory were correct; these points could then be investigated by persons acting on my behalf and, if they were substantiated, my theory would be conclusively proved.” Sir Charles drew a breath.
“In other words,” Roger murmured with a smile to Alicia Dammers, turning a hundred words into six, “ ‘I decided to employ inductive methods.’ ” But he spoke so softly that nobody but Miss Dammers heard him.
She smiled back appreciatively. The art of the written word is not that of the spoken one.
“I formed my theory,” announced Sir Charles, with surprising simplicity. Perhaps he was still a little short of breath.
“I formed my theory. Of necessity much of it was guesswork. Let me give an example. The possession by the criminal of a sheet of Mason & Sons’ notepaper had puzzled me more than anything. It was not an article which the individual I had in mind might be expected to possess, still less to be able to acquire. I could not conceive any method by which, the plot already decided upon and the sheet of paper required for its accomplishment, such a thing could be deliberately acquired by the individual in question without suspicion being raised afterwards.
“I therefore formed the conclusion that it was the actual ability to obtain a piece of Mason’s notepaper in a totally unsuspicious way, which was the reason of the notepaper of that particular firm being employed at all.” Sir Charles looked triumphantly round as if awaiting something.
Roger supplied it; no less readily for all that the point must have occurred to everyone as being almost too obvious to need any comment. “That’s a very interesting point indeed, Sir Charles. Most ingenious.”
Sir Charles nodded his agreement. “Sheer guesswork, I admit. Nothing but guesswork. But guesswork that was justified in the result.” Sir Charles was becoming so lost in admiration of his own perspicacity that he had forgotten all his love of long, winding sentences and smooth-rolling subordinate clauses. His massive head positively jerked on his shoulders.
“I considered how such a thing might come into one’s possession, and whether the possession could be verified afterwards. It occurred to me at last that many firms insert a piece of notepaper with a receipted bill, with the words ‘With Compliments’ or some such phrase typed on it. That gave me three questions. Was this practice employed at Mason’s? Had the individual in question an account at Mason’s, or more particularly, to explain the yellowed edge of the paper, had there been such an account in the past? Were there any indications on the paper of such a phrase having been carefully erased?
“Ladies and gentlemen,” boomed Sir Charles, puce with excitement, “you will see that the odds against those three questions being answered in the affirmative were enormous. Overwhelming. Before I posed them I knew that, should it prove to be the case, no mere chance could be held responsible.” Sir Charles dropped his voice. “I knew,” he said slowly, “that if those three questions of mine were answered in the affirmative, the individual I had in mind must be as guilty as if I had actually watched the poison being injected into those chocolates.”
He paused and looked impressively round him, riveting all eyes on his face.
“Ladies and gentlemen, those
