‘Now if you consider the hostile coastline that we must blockade, then it is from Toulon in the Mediterranean in an unbroken line of some three thousand miles around Spain, France and then in the Channel to the Netherlands. At the moment we’re containing them – Nelson off Toulon for the entire Mediterranean, Orde at Cadiz, Calder at Ferrol and Cornwallis at Brest, each with about a dozen of-the-line and, of course, Keith with the Downs Squadron to watch the invasion flotilla itself.
‘If Villeneuve sorties, joins with the Spaniards at Cadiz and Ferrol, then the French at Rochefort, and finally combines with the Brest squadron, we are quite overwhelmed. We know this, which is why we place our battle squadrons outside these ports in blockade to stop them.
‘But this is too simple. Napoleon is always to be trusted . . . to surprise and terrify. He knows we will crush his battle-fleet before it has time to come together. He will want therefore to deceive us, send us after a false scent and thereby split our forces.’
‘Do we – have we intelligence as will reveal Bonaparte’s intentions?’
‘Yes. In fact we do.’
‘May I be allowed—’
‘Our good fortune has been to intercept the very orders Napoleon dispatched to Ganteaume in Brest, detailing his strategic intent and plans for the invasion itself.’
‘Good God!’
‘Do you wish to know what was contained in them?’
‘Of course!’
‘Then I will tell you. This is how England is to be invaded. Villeneuve sails from Toulon with a powerful force including soldiers. He leaves the Mediterranean, brushing aside Orde’s squadron outside Cadiz and collects the battleships waiting there.
‘Instead of making a dash for Brest and the Channel, Napoleon seeks to outfox us. He tells Villeneuve to sail right across the Atlantic – to Surinam. There he lands his troops and joins with Missiessy, who has come from Rochefort with his own potent forces, which are then used to cause mayhem in the Caribbean.
‘A smaller force sails from Toulon, this time to strike south after Gibraltar, taking St Helena and reinforcing Senegal before attacking our young settlements on the African coast and grievously distracting us. That’s not all – when Villeneuve and Missiessy return they release the Brest fleet and together they converge on Boulogne to protect the invasion flotilla as it finally sails – three thousand vessels conveying several hundred thousand first-class troops, horses and guns.’
‘And our own forces? What do they—’
‘Again, Bonaparte is far from lacking in imagination. You see, before this deadly scene is acted out, Ganteaume in Brest has already sailed – he begins to put ashore eighteen thousand men in Lough Swilly in the north of Ireland, to be reinforced by twenty-five thousand Dutch and French from the Netherlands. These are ordered to march directly on Dublin, an intolerable strategic situation for us that demands we send our fleets to prevent it – but we are too late. Having landed his men Ganteaume is even now sailing to join Villeneuve and Missiessy in the grand finale, a total of nearly fifty battleships. And when you reflect that even Admiral Nelson at this moment commands no more than eleven of-the-line and then only if all are present . . .’
Crawford remained silent.
‘This then is Napoleon’s plan. Will it succeed? I have my doubts. He’s treating his naval forces as though they were a regiment of cavalry, no understanding of what problems the sea can throw at his commanders that can send his best-laid plans awry. Possibly his next plan will be more reasonable.’
‘Next plan?’
‘He knows we’ve captured his orders, he needs must make others. And this is our dilemma. I put it to you, Charles, how in heaven’s name will we know if a sudden move in this chess game is the opening of a grand strategy that ends with the enemy in triumph at our gates, or if it is in fact merely a derisory side-show? Only time will tell, and then it’ll be too late.’
‘A vexing conundrum.’
‘Quite so. And I’ll confide to you this hour that it has already begun. Missiessy has sortied from Rochefort. Our best information is that this is a voyage to the Caribbean, as provided for in the previous plan. He has a powerful fleet and our islands are probably under assault as we talk here together.
‘We must consider carefully. Is this an attempt to draw us away from our blockade so he may make his move on England? Or is it a full-scale onslaught on our colonies? Could it be that this serves as well to be a point of concentration for all his squadrons, which then descend together on the Channel? Or even . . . is this all a bluff of colossal proportions, that it is never the intention to go there, keeping a powerful fleet hidden in the ocean wastes ready to fall on us unaware?’
Crawford shifted uncomfortably. ‘We must be prepared for all eventualities.’
‘So we should. But know that our lines of communication at sea are long – very long. To send orders to Lord Nelson in the Mediterranean and receive his acknowledgement is a matter of six weeks and more. How, then, should we in the Admiralty respond when we have urgent news of the enemy’s motions? Immediately send details and orders to the admiral concerned? I rather think not, for by the time he receives them our event is history, and the orders an impertinence.’
‘But – but how then can you . . . ?’
‘We must trust our admirals, is the only course. Provide them with the best means to make a decision and step back to allow them to act entirely as they see fit at the time. No other will answer.’
‘This I perceive, Edward. Knowing the grand situation you will dispatch intelligence pertaining and principles of action and hope mightily that your man plays his cards well, that he is not trumped by the enemy.’ He remained thoughtful. ‘If you’ll allow me to say it, old fellow, it does strike me as a frightful burden on your Admiralty. All responsibility for the defence of the realm and, blindfolded, they must turn over the means of action to others.’
‘It is,’ Boyd said, with feeling. ‘What shall we do with Missiessy in the Caribbean? Of course, any orders to the Leeward Islands station will reach there only after the Frenchman is on his way back.’
