Leaving his aides with a whirlwind of tasks, Yamamoto had flown from the naval base at Hiroshima to Tokyo and arrived early the morning after the attack. He was alone and incognito. This was not the time to draw attention to himself. As a further concession, Tojo had agreed to meet with him at the prime minister’s residence.
Tojo greeted Yamamoto warmly, even exuberantly. After all, hadn’t the admiral given Japan the greatest naval victory since the victory over the Russians at Tsushima in 1905? Perhaps Pearl Harbor was even greater than that now legendary victory. Coincidentally, a very young Yamamoto had been present at Tsushima and lost two fingers from a shell fragment.
“General,” Yamamoto began, “I have requested this meeting because I wish to make a substantial change in our strategy regarding the Americans.”
Tojo turned serious. “Let me guess. You now wish to invade Hawaii.”
“Correct.”
“But why? You were against both that and the attack on Pearl Harbor. So was I until I recognized the need for it.”
“General, I based my opposition to attacking the American fleet on the fact that it would arouse a sleeping giant, the United States. We have no way of countering her industrial might. Remember, please, that I have been to America and toured her factories in Pittsburgh and Detroit, and we have nothing to compare with them.
“I said that we would run wild for six months to a year, and then I said I could not guarantee what would happen thereafter. The Americans have been constructing a vast fleet that could overwhelm us in a year or two at the most if peace is not arrived at.”
“I know,” Tojo said grimly. “Our strategy subsequent to attacking the United States was to be so solid defensively that any attempt at conquering us would be too expensive for them. It was also decided that Hawaii was outside the limits of our defensive perimeter, because it would be too expensive for us to conquer and hold. Admiral, what has changed your mind?”
“Simply put, the defenses at Pearl Harbor and the rest of Hawaii were far weaker than we believed and are now nonexistent. We can take and hold Hawaii, and the United States will not be able to use it as a forward staging area for assaults on Japan. Any attacks will have to come from California or Australia. I’m also sure that, as prime minister, you can see any number of diplomatic reasons for our holding Hawaii.”
“Of course. But the Americans will immediately bring reinforcements to Hawaii, won’t they?”
“They can’t,” Yamamoto said simply.
“What?”
“They have no fuel. They cannot bring ships or planes to Pearl Harbor because they cannot resupply them with fuel. The final attack on Pearl destroyed the American oil reserves. These cannot be made up, at least not for quite some time. In my opinion, they will have to send their fleet, including the carriers that escaped us, to either Australia or California.”
“I don’t understand. Ships and planes go to Hawaii all the time.”
“Certainly,” Yamamoto conceded, “but many of the ships need oil to get back, and all of the planes need to refuel. Under the current circumstances, any attempt by the United States Navy to reinforce Pearl would result in a graveyard of fuel-starved ships. Few, if any, major ships have the ability to travel such distances and return without refueling. Please recall that Nagumo’s fleet required midocean refueling in order to attack Pearl Harbor.”
“Can’t they use tankers, as we did?”
“Yes, but not until they accumulate a sufficient number to make an impact. I am convinced they will begin to repair the facilities at Pearl fairly quickly, so haste is of the essence.”
Tojo was intrigued. He leaned back and smiled. “Then won’t they reinforce their army? If we believe both their propaganda and our intelligence, they have more than thirty thousand soldiers on Oahu.”
“General, many of that number will be useless mouths in the event of an assault. Thousands are tied up in coastal batteries, administration, and, of course, maintaining an air force that no longer exists, and the remainder are simply not combat ready, despite their claims to the contrary. When we attack, we will totally dominate the air and the sea. American numbers will be irrelevant. As to their reinforcing the army, it will not happen for the same reason that the navy will not make the attempt. The lack of oil will deter them. I am convinced that the United States will not make any attempt to strengthen or enlarge their defenses on Oahu until they have the capability to store fuel for their planes and ships.”
Tojo rubbed his chin. “And when will they be able to do that?”
“My engineers feel it will take them at least three months to repair the depot, and several months after that to accumulate a sufficient quantity of oil to support a fleet.”
Tojo leaned forward. “And why will we be able to succeed in using Pearl as a base when the Americans cannot?”
“General, both mentally and physically we are prepared for war and they are not. We have the necessary tankers and they do not. And, finally, we can make the repairs much more quickly because we will be able to pour engineers into the area and use indigenous labor, even prisoners, to hasten the reconstruction.”
“It is intriguing,” Tojo said with a smile. “Yet so much is happening now. The Philippines have been attacked, as have Malaya and Hong Kong. Other campaigns are beginning or about to begin all over the Pacific. There is a timetable of conquest in place, and you are asking for it to be changed. It could result in chaos.”
“Yes,” Yamamoto replied solemnly. “But I would not request it if I didn’t think it was so very important. Remember when I said we would run wild for six months to a year? Well, the conquest of Hawaii could extend that estimate to years, perhaps decades. Perhaps”-he smiled grimly-”forever.”
“Do you have plans?” Tojo asked, and then he threw back his head and laughed heartily. “Of course you do.”
Yamamoto grinned back. “Nothing final, of course, but enough to show that it is more than feasible. It is an enormous opportunity to ensure the security of Japan.”
Tojo nodded. It was indeed intriguing, but there were other complications that could preclude such an operation. For one thing, the United States was at war only with Japan. While he had been assured that Germany would support Japan by declaring war on America, this had not yet happened. If the full force of American might was thrown against Japan, Yamamoto’s navy would be on the defensive far sooner than anticipated, whether Japan held Hawaii or not. Germany had to declare war so that the Americans would be compelled to fight a two- front war.
Additionally, he would have to deal with the fear that Japan’s generals had of Russia. The Soviets were considered to be the far greater threat to Japan’s security and had massed forces along the Siberian-Manchukuo border. However, everything indicated that the Russians were totally preoccupied with keeping Hitler out of Moscow. If the Germans declared war on America, and if the Soviets stayed out of it, then the seizure of Hawaii was indeed feasible.
“I will meet with my generals,” Tojo said. “If forces are to be made available, they will probably have to come from those in reserve in Japan, or from other areas, such as China or Manchukuo. We cannot jeopardize ongoing operations to facilitate your endeavor.”
Yamamoto nodded. “I am confident that no more than one reinforced division or its equivalent will be necessary, and the navy will provide both shipping and marines to lead the assault. It is not a great requirement at all. Our total domination of the air will eliminate any need for overwhelming ground strength. Add to that the fact that many of Oahu’s targets are within the range of naval gunfire, and we will be able to obliterate their defenses.”
Tojo was impressed and found himself exhilarated at the prospect. “We will meet in a day or two,” he said.
At the request of his superiors in army intelligence, Captain Jake Novacek had completed a tour of the damage to the naval facilities and had also been on the lookout for any evidence of possible sabotage. There was none, of course. All damage had come from the skies. He did not think it unusual that he would be asked to confirm what the navy might say about the damage to the fleet. That one service might evade, or even lie, in dealing with another was a given. In situations like this, it was human nature to try to gloss over failure, and the army needed an accurate report to enable it to commence its own plans. That the army would lie to the navy about the extent of its own losses was another given.
