A Rising Thunder

mentioned so quickly.

“It’s certainly possible we’d be able to compensate for those losses, but I’m afraid the only solution we’ve been able to see over at Economic Analysis would require an amendment to the Constitution.” Gweon met Kolokoltsov’s eyes with a levelness which told the civilian the naval officer understood the realities as well as he did. “Essentially, the federal government would have to impose direct taxation in some form in order to compensate. There’s an enormous amount of wealth in the League’s economy, even — or especially — in the Core Worlds, alone. If there were some way to tap that wealth, it would completely transform our current analysis of the competing economic trends.”

“Perhaps so, Captain,” Kolokoltsov said with a wintry smile. “Speaking as someone with a modicum of political experience, however, it might well be easier to beat the Manties militarily than to accomplish a structural change of that magnitude.”

“Obviously that’s outside my area of competence, Sir,” Gweon acknowledged. “Nonetheless, it brings me to my second optimistic assumption: that the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough to defeat its adversaries. Frankly, I think that’s unlikely.”

Silence hovered for several seconds and Kolokoltsov’s office. Then the permanent senior undersecretary of state cleared his throat.

“That’s a…remarkable assertion, Captain,” he observed.

“I realize that, Sir, and I don’t wish to appear alarmist. Nonetheless, I think we have to acknowledge that there’s enough resentment of current League policies in the Protectorates, the Verge, and even in some Shell systems to make their loyalty to the League…uncertain. Quite a few systems in those regions would ask nothing more than to slip out of the League’s control. They might or might not prefer some sort of arrangement with the Manties, possibly along the lines of what happened in Talbott, but they’d certainly like to throw out the transstellars and, undoubtedly, nationalize their investments and property. In terms of those systems’ contributions to the League, it doesn’t really matter whether they decide to remain independent or sign up with the Manties.

“That’s bad enough, but I think we also have to assume some of the systems in the Shell will see an opportunity to strike out on their own. They’re full member systems of the League, which means they have the constitutional right to secede whenever they wish. I realize that option’s never been exercised, but the League’s never been at war with a multi-system star nation with superior war-fighting capabilities, either. It seems extraordinarily unlikely that the possibilities inherent in the situation won’t occur to power-minded individuals and star systems throughout the Shell.

“And, finally, given that same constitutional right to secede, there’s no guarantee some of the Core star systems won’t follow suit. Especially not if they find themselves facing the sort of tax mechanism necessary to sustain a long-term war effort. And that situation would almost certainly be exacerbated in both the Shell and the Core by Manty offensive operations designed to erode our military capabilities, to encourage those who might wish to secede from the League or even align with them, and to punish those who do not choose to secede or align with them.”

He paused once more, then shrugged very slightly. It was a gesture of weariness, not dismissal, and he shook his head.

“I don’t like my own conclusions, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary,” he said levelly, “but if those conclusions are accurate, we stand a greater chance of losing this war than we do of winning it, and even if we ‘win’ in the end, it’s likely the League will be severely damaged by the time the shooting stops.”

“I see,” Kolokoltsov said after perhaps thirty seconds. Then he gave himself a mental shake.

“I see,” he repeated. “And I thank you for a very comprehensive piece of analysis and for honestly presenting conclusions you obviously would have preferred not to have reached. If you’ll excuse us, now, though, I think Fleet Admiral Kingsford and I need a few moments.”

“Of course, Sir.”

Captain Gweon came briefly to attention, nodded courteously to both of his superiors, and quietly withdrew.

A fresh, lengthy silence lingered until Kolokoltsov finally broke it.

“I rather wish Fleet Admiral Rajampet had carried out that analysis before he advised us to launch Raging Justice,” he said bitingly.

“I’m not in a position to say why he didn’t, Sir,” Kingsford said, “and I have no desire to speak ill of someone under whom I served for so long. At the same time, I have to agree with you.”

“Yet you’re still saying you believe we have no choice but to continue this war that Captain Gweon’s just demonstrated we’re probably going to lose. Is that correct, Fleet Admiral?”

“Captain Gweon is a very skilled and insightful analyst, Sir. He’s not omniscient, however, and what he actually said was that we have a greater chance of losing than of winning, not that we can’t win. If we don’t even attempt to win, I’m very much afraid most of the catastrophic consequences he just painted are going to come to pass, anyway. If that’s the case, we won’t be any better off if we don’t fight or any worse off even if we fight and lose. If, on the other hand, we fight and win, our position at the end will probably be recoverable. I’m sure we’d still have to make a lot of changes and adjustments, but the League would survive. So it seems to me that it comes down to whether or not that possibility is worth fighting for. If it isn’t, if the decision — which is a political choice, not a military one — is that the price and risk aren’t worth the possible outcome, we need to stand down our forces immediately and ask the Manties and Havenites for terms.”

Kolokoltsov’s face tightened as Kingsford put the options so bluntly.

“What about a third possibility?” he asked. “What if we offered the Manties and Havenites terms to get the shooting stopped, then pushed our own R&D until we could match their weapons? Bought time to redress the military balance?”

“Again, that’s a political decision, not a military one, Sir. Having said that, I think the other side would have to anticipate that that was precisely what we were doing. That being the case, I don’t see them accepting any terms we might find bearable. I could be wrong, but even if I’m not, it’s going to take us a long time to duplicate their hardware, and they’ll be using all that time to consolidate their current position. I’m sure they’ll be pushing their own R&D, look for still more improvements in their existing capabilities, which will stretch out the time we’ll require to catch up with them. And I’m equally sure they’ll be consolidating their spheres of economic power, not to mention continuing to expand their own navies. The upshot will be that when we finally do face off with them again, they’ll be far more powerful in economic and territorial terms than they are right now. So even if we can match their technological capabilities, we’ll be facing a much tougher and more powerful adversary. In which case, the consequences of a long war like the one Captain Gweon just sketched out for us would probably come into play once again.”

“Well if we’re screwed if we do fight, and screwed if we don’t fight, exactly what do you propose we do?” Kolokoltsov demanded. He wished he hadn’t heard so much exasperation in his own tone, but he couldn’t help it, and Kingsford took it without apparent offense.

“As I said earlier, Sir, I think we have no choice but to fight. At the same time, as I also said, I don’t think we can afford to send our wall of battle out to fight their wall of battle. And what that leaves us, Sir, is a policy of commerce warfare. A raiding strategy.”

“Explain…please,” Kolokoltsov said.

“At the moment, the Manties’ problem is that the League is very, very big, and they have only a finite number of starships and a finite supply of manpower,” Kingsford responded. “The ability to control and consolidate territory is dependent upon the ratio of your available military power to the volume to be controlled and consolidated, and those sorts of duties actually eat up more manpower and more tonnage than pitched fleet combat does. I’m Battle Fleet, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, but the plain truth is that Frontier Fleet’s always had to have more hulls — more hyper-capable platforms — than Battle Fleet precisely because establishing and maintaining that sort of control was its primary mission.

“In addition, even including its Silesian territories, the Talbott Sector, and all of the Havenite star systems combined, their alliance has a much smaller number of star systems. They can’t afford the attrition we can, yet they have enough systems that if we can compel them to divert forces to protect them, we can significantly reduce the striking power of their fleets.