earthquake of 6.9. What’s the depth of the ocean at that location?”
Using a map of the Pacific Ocean floor, Kai sounded out each digit to make sure Reggie understood. “Four nine two five.”
“Got it.” Reggie continued typing. “And now I just type in how far we are from the epicenter, and that should give us a ballpark height of the biggest wave.”
When he was finished, he leaned forward and looked confused. Then his eyes widened suddenly, and he pulled his hands back from the keyboard as if it were hot.
“What is it?” Brad said.
“Maybe I did the calculation wrong.” Reggie started over and typed all of the numbers in again. When he saw the results, he leaned back and shook his head.
“Oh, man,” Reggie said, “if this model is anywhere close to being accurate, we’re in serious trouble.”
“How big?” Kai asked, already knowing that it was beyond his worst fears.
Reggie let out a heavy sigh. “At least seventy when it gets here.”
“Holy shit!” Brad said. “The Asian tsunami didn’t get bigger than thirty feet high, did it?”
Reggie shook his head. “There are some estimates that it got at least twice that high in Banda Aceh.”
Brad’s eyes goggled at the awe-inspiring thought. “So seventy feet will be huge.”
Kai put his hand on Brad’s shoulder. He didn’t get it.
“Brad, all of our figures are in metric units. Meters, not feet. Seventy meters. The wave is going to be over two hundred feet high.”
TWENTY
The prospect of a two-hundred-foot-high wall of water hitting a populated coastline was unmatched in recorded civilization. The biggest tsunami to hit any kind of populated area was the monster wave that resulted from the explosion of Krakatoa in 1883. The hundred-foot-high wave wiped out entire villages in the Sunda Strait of Indonesia, killing thirty-six thousand people. Now they were facing the possibility of a wave at least twice that big hitting one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world.
The phone rang, and Kai picked it up slowly, his mind reeling.
“Tanaka,” he said.
“Dr. Tanaka, this is Jeanette Leslie from CNN. I have some questions about the tsunami warning that was issued a few minutes ago.”
“I’m sorry, but I don’t have time to answer questions right now.”
“But, Dr. Tanaka, you—”
Before she could get any further, Kai hung up. Within moments, the phone rang again.
“It’s started,” Reggie said.
“The phone’s going to be ringing off the hook.” Without a receptionist to field the calls, just answering the phone would take up all of their time. Kai turned to Brad.
“I need your help again.”
“Answer the phones?”
“Yes. Reggie and I have too much to do.”
“But what do I say? I don’t know anything.”
“Actually, you know a lot. Maybe too much. I can’t have you giving out quotes to the media. Just tell them we will issue an official statement in”—Kai glanced at his watch—“ten minutes. Until then, no comment.”
Dealing with the media was a double-edged sword. Fielding their calls would take precious minutes away from calculating wave arrival times for the rest of the Pacific islands. On the other hand, giving the media statements could be a powerful tool for warning the public to get to high ground. But Kai couldn’t blindside HSCD. He needed to confer with them first. And it would definitely help to have some confirmation from NASA.
“What about the meteor impact?” Brad said. “Do you think we should mention that?”
“Look, Kai,” said Reggie, “I’m buying into your theory. We’ve got a big tsunami coming. But I think talking about a meteorite impact at this point is premature.”
“Right,” Brad said. “Why should we jump to conclusions? We have, oh, fifty-three minutes left. No reason to panic!”
“I didn’t say we shouldn’t issue another warning!”
“Calm down, you two,” Kai said quietly. “Reggie, send out an update that we have lost contact with Johnston Island and Christmas Island, and we believe a large tsunami may hit the coastline of Hawaii. We recommend that people get as far inland as possible.”
“Large tsunami?” Reggie said.
“Okay, massive tsunami.”
“I guess vertical evacuation is out.”
In most tsunamis, the downtown and Waikiki areas of Honolulu were so densely populated that evacuation by road, or “horizontal evacuation,” would cause huge traffic jams, essentially stopping all motion on the roads and inhibiting the movement of emergency vehicles and buses. For those who couldn’t evacuate away from the beach on foot or by vehicle, they normally recommended taking refuge above the third floor of a building at least six stories tall.
But in this case, the biggest wave was going to be at least the height of a twenty-story building. People following the standard instructions would be sentenced to death.
Kai nodded. “Recommend that people should get to high ground and that they may not be safe on high floors of buildings.”
“What about calling it a mega-tsunami?”
“Not until we get confirmation from NASA or the DART buoy. Just say that it’s a massive tsunami and that we’re not ready to estimate the height.”
“Gotcha. Helluva holiday, huh?”
Brad tapped him on the shoulder.
“Kai, I’ve got NESDIS on hold with Brian Renfro.”
“Good. Maybe they have something.”
“I also have Harry Dupree, George Huntley, and Mary Grayson holding. They called in as soon as they heard about the tsunami warning.”
“Where are they?” Kai was hoping George and Mary might be close enough to come in. Having two more scientists at the PTWC would be a big help.
“Harry’s in the Maui County Police Department. George and Mary are on the North Shore, at least an hour’s drive from here.”
“Okay,” Kai said. “They’re not going to do us any good here. Transfer the NASA call over here, and tell the others to wait.”
A few seconds later, the phone at the monitoring desk rang. As Kai picked up the phone, he motioned to Reggie.
“Reggie, once you’ve sent out the new warning, keep an eye on the DART data. Let me know the minute we start to get a reading.”
Reggie nodded and started typing at the terminal.
“Hello,” Kai said, getting back on the line. “Brian, you there?”
“I’m here, Kai. I’ve also got someone from NASA.”
