Research Center. Plutonium production means one thing: they have a nuclear-weapons program. I have no doubt that they are building a nuclear bomb. They plan to install centrifuges at both sites as backup should the other one be bombed.”
“Do they already have enough fissile material?”
“No. But we estimate that Iran will have a total of almost 19 kilograms of fresh 80 percent enriched uranium in two to three years from now. They could use the irradiated fuel from their reactor and supplement it with import from other countries, with or without their governments’ knowledge.”
“You mean stolen?”
“Yes. Look around. We are in a buyers’ market. Someday, somewhere, someone will be greedy enough to sell it to the eager, oil-rich Iranians.”
“How many bombs could they build with what they'll have soon?” I asked.
“Just one. All they need is 18 to 20 kilograms of uranium,” said Eric. “We suspect that Iran, after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, intends to use all their highly enriched uranium and even continue enriching portions of it. They are probably planning a final weaponization process to deter the U.S. from attacking them while they're in the neighborhood.”
Eric continued, “We think that once the Iranians complete the bomb construction, they'll have two options: the first is to test the bomb in the Iranian desert. The world would then treat Iran as a local power with a nuclear capability. Then, their tacit control over neighboring oil-rich countries would be tolerated, albeit opposed.”
“And the second?”
“Their first bomb would be too big to launch with the obsolete missiles the Iranians currently have. Our friends at the Mossad say that the Iranians could try to detonate a bomb near Israel. All they have to do is put it on a boat entering Haifa harbor. They couldn't send an airplane because any unidentified plane approaching Israel's airspace would be shot down immediately.”
I knew what Eric was referring to. There were rumors that Iranian-backed terrorists had maintained all along that it was possible to cause devastating destruction in Israel by using a boat carrying even a primitive atom bomb.
“But wait,” I interrupted. “Didn't you tell me earlier that the Iranians need the materials their agents are looking for to boost the destruction capacity of their bombs? I don't understand why, because even a small A-bomb would be enough to change history.”
“We don't know why. Their attempt to obtain these boosting materials could be psychological warfare to scare off the West, or it could be a part of a bigger plan. I don't think the Iranian fanatics limit the area of potential use to the Middle East. There could be other targets. The United States for example.”
“OK,” I said, “I got the picture. Are the threats imminent?”
“No. Unless they buy or steal ready-made bombs. Otherwise they are approximately ten to twelve years away from a homemade A-bomb.”
“Got it,” I said.
“Next, have you heard of Gerald Bull?”
“The Canadian engineer hired by the Iraqis? Yes, what about him?”
“He was a brilliant weapons-research specialist. In 1961, Bull convinced the Pentagon that large guns could be used as launch platforms for nose cones for orbital reentry. He started Project HARP – for ‘High Altitude Research Program’ – to study high-altitude ballistics and large guns. For political reasons his financial plug was later pulled. Bull transferred HARP 's assets into his private corporation and worked as a consultant to foreign armies on issues of artillery.
“In the mid-1970s the South Africans were in conflict with the Communist government of Angola. Bull, with a silent nod from the CIA, helped South Africa design a new 155-mm howitzer with a range exceeding that of any other known cannon. With the new guns, the South Africans had no problem stopping the Angolans.
“However, by the time Jimmy Carter was elected president, apartheid South Africa had lost favor, and Bull was caught in a legal quagmire and charged with illegal arms dealing. He pleaded guilty and served six months in U.S. federal prison in 1980. When he got out, Bull was devastated personally and financially. His reputation was ruined, he was kicked out of his facility in Quebec, and his company went bust.
“Bull left Canada and settled in Brussels. He looked for work everywhere and found consulting work in China and Iraq. Entangled in a bloody war with Iran, the Iraqis bought hundreds of Bull's howitzers from Austria and South Africa. The guns were very efficient on the open fields of the border between Iraq and Iran, where no protection was available for the Iranians from the Iraqi shells. Bull became a celebrity for the Iraqis, who increased his pay and code-named their Bull-managed new weapons systems ‘Babylon.’
“Bull knew that Israel would not tolerate an Iraqi-built supergun that would put Israeli cities within its range. Therefore, as an insurance policy he secretly double-crossed the Iraqis when he contacted the Mossad and provided them with information on Babylon, thereby hoping to spare his project from an Israeli attack. Bull then deceived the Israelis and us. He managed to divide the project into small portions and had the pieces of the project manufactured quietly. Even his own family was kept in the dark.
“Israel became concerned because Bull also designed highly accurate navigational systems for the Iraqi missiles. First the Mossad tried to warn Bull and make him stop. His apartment in Brussels was burglarized several times, but nothing was taken. He misread the Israeli tenacity and ignored the not-so-subtle message. So on March 22, someone was waiting for him outside his apartment and shot him five times. He died on the scene. No one was ever caught.”
“This is not a clean war,” I said.
“No. And it works both ways,” said Eric. “After the Iranian Islamic revolution of 1979, the Iranians physically started eliminating their opponents under the command of Hojjatoleslam Ali Fallahian, their intelligence minister.”
“Has anything happened recently?”
“Yes. Dr. Elahi, deputy leader of Derafsh Kaviani, an opposition group fighting the Islamic Republic, was just assassinated in Paris by an unidentified killer. We think it was done by Fallahian's agents.”
I touched my neck. It was still there.
“Get the picture?”
“Yes, when you actually explain things to me slowly, I understand very quickly,” I said, as mildly sarcastic as he'd been condescending. It must have escaped Eric, though. He didn't respond. Eric continued. “OK, then there's the Mossad's continued silent war against suppliers of war materials to the Iraqis.”
“But the meeting is with the Iranians, not the Iraqis,” I said.
“I know that,” said Eric. “With Saddam busy, and Bull dead, the Iranians are looking to scavenge the remains of Bull's projects for the Iraqis. They know firsthand how efficient Bull's guns were, and they're hoping they can pick up what Bull left behind. Anyway, everyone in our trade is extremely cautious these days. Keep your eyes wide open. By the way, the Mossad could be interested in this meeting as well, as outsiders or even insiders.”
“What do you mean by ‘insiders’?”
“Well, any of the participants at the meeting could double as a Mossad agent or informer.”
“OK,” I said, “I'll do my best. Any security instruction?” I asked, feeling that the participants in the event I was about to attend could have my head on a platter.
“Frankly,” said Eric, “I find it odd that professional Iranian intelligence agents would agree to meet these days with an American, any American, to discuss their purchasing plans. Therefore, the whole thing could be a simple scam, or a trap. Any way you look at it, it doesn't feel right. So I think you should appreciate the bug we're attaching to your back. It'll give us an idea of what's going on during the meeting, but it will also alert us if something goes wrong and you become a target.”
I nodded. “Obviously,” I said, “this is a game of interests. I want to use Guttmacher to find DeLouise's assets and Guttmacher is using me for something, which I haven't identified yet. I don't think he swallowed my story about being DeLouise's partner, but still, he's deeply afraid of me for some reason. Otherwise there's no basis for him to let me continue playing my act.”
“And the Iranians?” asked Eric.
“I don't know if they're players or spectators. Apparently, if they know I'm coming, maybe I have something they need.”
