Castlereagh to return to the War Office, and George Canning is likely to be offered the post of Foreign Secretary.’
‘That will make for some interesting Cabinet meetings,’ Arthur mused. ‘Those two are hardly on speaking terms as it is.’
‘I know.’ Richard smiled.‘What wouldn’t I give to be there when the altercations begin? Of course, the tricky bit will be finding someone willing to take on the role of Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. With all the trouble there has been there recently, it’s something of a poisoned chalice. Unless the war is prosecuted more actively and with greater success, we shall have a perpetual state of resentment and rebellion in Ireland.’
‘Well at least with Canning and Castlereagh behind the war effort we can be sure that it will be prosecuted with vigour. It will need to be, for I can see no early end to the conflict.’
Richard glanced up, knife and fork poised over the remains of his lamb chop. ‘Indeed? Why is that? Do please tell me, Arthur.’
‘Very well.’ Arthur collected his thoughts. ‘Foremost because of Bonaparte’s continued run of victories. Even if Eylau was no triumph, the Russians were still forced to retreat and will continue to be cautious while they have but a few Prussians left to aid them in continuing the war with France. If Bonaparte strips men from his garrisons across Europe he will be able to renew his advance in the spring, and no doubt force a decisive enough victory to persuade the Tsar to negotiate. The only hope for us is that the Tsar continues to defy Bonaparte and retreats into the heart of Russia, drawing the French army after him. But I doubt that Bonaparte would be rash enough to take the risk.’
‘Risk? What risk?’
Arthur looked at his brother in surprise.‘Why, Richard, have you any idea of the distances involved? Even the best supplied and disciplined of armies would be broken by such a campaign. Believe me, such an undertaking would dwarf the marches our forces had to make in India. Nor would Bonaparte be able to conduct his operations for long. Any invasion of Russian soil would have to be complete by the time autumn came for fear of being caught in the Russian winter.’ Arthur shook his head. ‘I can’t think for a moment that Napoleon would be so rash as to lead his army against the Tsar. It would be sheer madness to attempt it.’ He paused and sipped his coffee before continuing. ‘Let us assume that he makes peace with Russia. Then Britain alone remains at war with France. The Royal Navy makes French invasion unlikely, and our lack of manpower makes British invasion of the continent an impossibility. So we have a stalemate. For the present. Fortunately Bonaparte has committed a grievous error in banning trade between the continent and Britain. He has caused great resentment amongst his allies and subject territories. In time that will play into our hands. Meanwhile, we must offer the European powers some hope.’
‘It would make a fine change from offering them money,’ Richard interrupted sourly. ‘Pitt nearly bankrupted the country with the vast sums we handed over to our allies. And much good it did us.’
‘I’m afraid that Britain will still have to finance any allies we may find in the future. But there are other means to inspire them. Since you mentioned Pitt, let me tell you of a viable scheme I suggested to him not long before he died. A way to keep the war open on land. One that would vex Bonaparte, and prove that he was not quite so invincible as his propaganda machine makes out.That is to wage war in the Iberian Peninsula.’
‘Spain and Portugal? How would that profit Britain?’
‘While Spain is an ally of France she is a legitimate target for hostility. Spain is also weak militarily and even a modestly sized British army could create havoc. Perhaps enough to force Napoleon to send forces to assist his Spanish allies. And thereby provide the means for us to demonstrate that French soldiers and French generals can be defeated. News of such defeats would be music to the ears of other continental powers.’
‘That may be,’ Richard agreed. ‘But what if Napoleon himself took to the field in Spain? What if he inflicted a crushing defeat on your modestly sized British army? Then such an intervention would only serve to enhance his reputation, diminish ours and discourage any potential allies.’
‘There is that risk,’ Arthur admitted. ‘The commander of our forces would have to be very circumspect indeed. He would have to avoid any battle where there was any risk of defeat.The key to our strategy would have to lie in tying down enemy forces and defeating them in detail as and when the opportunity arose. We would also enjoy certain advantages denied to the French. Since we have won the war at sea we could freely supply our men along the coast, and even land detachments to cause trouble at our whim. Our enemies, however, would have long land-based chains of supply and communication stretching back to France. Better still, the French army’s custom of living off the land would win them few friends in Spain. To the extent that it might well cause Spain to switch her allegiance to our side.’
‘That is a far-fetched supposition, some might argue.’
‘It is only a possibility,’ Arthur conceded. ‘But I can see no other profitable deployment of our land forces on the continent. Certainly not one that offers as much chance of undermining Bonaparte.’ He drained his cup and set it down in its saucer.‘It is certainly what I would do if I were deciding Britain’s military policy.’
Richard thought for a moment and then nodded. ‘It makes sense. I might mention it to Castlereagh when I next speak to him. It would be interesting to see what he makes of it.’
Arthur nodded, though he did not put much store in the prospect of politicians understanding such a strategic vision. Few of them had any military experience to speak of, and those who did could be readily discounted for having abandoned a military career in favour of a political one.
‘In any case,’ Richard continued, ‘it would be useful to put your name in front of Castlereagh, should he be considering any military appointments in the near future.’
It was little more than a week after his breakfast with Richard that Arthur was invited to an interview with the Duke of Richmond. In the intervening time the Prime Minister had confirmed the appointments of Castlereagh and Canning and most of the other cabinet positions. The Duke had been tipped for high office but as yet there had been no public announcement and Arthur was curious to discover his reasons for requesting an interview.
They met in a small office in Whitehall. The Duke of Richmond, a rounded, grey-haired man with a good- humoured twinkle in his eyes, clasped Arthur’s hand and greeted him with a warm smile before ushering him to a worn leather chair and then pulling another up so that they sat close together beside a grimy window overlooking the street.
‘Your brother, Richard, tells me you have a fine mind, and a great deal of integrity.’
Arthur smiled slightly. ‘It seems he forgot to mention my modesty while he was at it, your grace.’
The Duke laughed.‘Well, perhaps he knew that you would mention it. Anyway, let’s not waste time on pleasantries, Sir Arthur. I imagine you are burning with curiosity concerning the purpose of this interview. Let me
