Juggernaut

I left him a sadder and a none the wiser man.

I got back to London, spent a night in my own apartment, which God knows saw little enough of me, and was in to see Geddes the next morning. It was as though time had stood still; he sat behind his desk, wearing the same suit, and the same rain pattered against the windows. Even the conversation was predictable. 'You're looking very brown,' he said. 'Good weather out there?'

'No, I've picked up a new suntan lamp. You ought to try it some time. How's your prickly feeling?'

'It's still there. I hope you've brought some embrocation.'

'I haven't.' I crossed the room, opened the discreet executive bar and poured out a neat Scotch.

'You've picked up some bad habits,' Geddes said. 'Early morning drinking wasn't your line.'

'It's almost noon, and this isn't for me, it's for you – you'll need it. But since you invite me I'll join you.' I poured another, took the drinks to the desk and sat down.

Geddes looked from the glass to me. 'Bad news?'

'Not good. At the same time, not certain. It's one of those iffy situations. I've looked over the Nyala operation, and there's nothing wrong with our end of it. It's running like a well-oiled machine, and I'm mildly impressed by Wyvern, with reservations. But I put my ear to the ground, talked some and listened more, and I didn't like what I was hearing. Do you want it now or should I save it for a board meeting?'

'I'll have it now, please. I like to be ahead of any committee.'

'OK. A few years ago, after Ofanwe, there was military rule and Abram Kigonde was top dog. When he pulled out and allowed elections there were two basic parties formed, one rather grandly called the Peoples' Agrarian Party and one with the more prosaic name of the Nationalist Peoples' Party. The Agrarians won the first election and set out to reform everything in sight, but in a rather middle-of-the-road fashion; they were not particularly revolutionary in their thinking.'

I sipped some whisky. Times change. Because of the political stability, quite a lot of investment money came in, and then with the oil strikes there was still more. After a while the moderates were squeezed out and the Nationalists took over at the next elections. They are a lot more industry orientated. And of course by now Nyala had become self-financing and there were a lot of pickings to be had. And that's the nub -had by whom?'

'We know a lot of pockets have been lined, Neil. That's fairly common. Damn it, we've done it ourselves.'

'As common as breathing. But I think too much of it has gone into the wrong pockets – or wrong from one point of view anyway.'

'Whose point of view?'

'Major General Abram Kigonde.'

Geddes pursed his lips and nodded thoughtfully. 'What's he got to do with all this?'

'Everything. He's having trouble keeping the army in line. When he handed over power to the civil authority there were grumbles from some of his officers. A few senior types thought the army should hang on; they'd had a taste of power and liked it. But then nothing much happened, because there wasn't much power, or much loot, to divide. Then came industrialization and finally, to top it all, the oil strikes. Now there's a hell of a lot of loot and the army is split down the middle. They know the Government lads are creaming it off the top and some of those senior officers are licking their lips. Of course what they're saying is that the country which they saved from the evils of Maro Ofanwe is now being sold down the river by other equally evil politicians, but that's just for public consumption.'

'Yes, it sounds highly likely. Who's the main troublemaker?'

'A Colonel Sagundisi is at the bottom of it, the word says. He hasn't put a foot wrong, his popularity with the younger officers is increasing, and he's preaching redemption. If Kigonde lets him he'll go right out on a limb and call for army reforms again. '

'With what results?'

'Could be a coup d'etat.' 'Urn,' said Geddes. 'And the timetable? The likelihood?'.

'That's hard to guess, naturally. It depends partly on the Air Force.'

Geddes nodded tiredly. 'The usual complications. They're playing both ends against the middle, right?'

'Right now the army is split in two; half for Kigonde and the status quo, half for Sagundisi and the quick takeover. Word is that they're level pegging with Sagundisi making points and Kigonde losing them. The influence of their so-called Navy is negligible. But the Air Force is different. If it comes to open conflict then the side that has air power is going to win.'

'A poker game.'

'You're so damned right. The Air Force Commander is a wily old fox called Semangala and he's playing it cool, letting each side of the army raise the ante alternately. The Government is also bidding for support in all this, naturally, tending to Kigonde's angle but I wouldn't be surprised if they jumped whichever way would get them into the cream pot.'

'It seems to come down to Semangala, the way you see it. When he makes his mind up you expect a crack down one way or the other.'

There are other factors, of course. Student unrest is on the increase. The pro-Reds are looking for a chance to put their oar in; and in the north – where the oil is – the country is largely Moslem and tends to look towards the Arab states for support and example. Oh yes, and when all else fails there's always the old tribal game: all of the lesser tribes are ready to gang up on the too successful Kinguru, including their cousins the Wabi, who make up the army backbone. Take your pick.'

Geddes picked up his glass and seemed surprised to find that he'd drained it. 'All right, Neil. When do you think it will blow open?'

'The rains will come in nearly two months if they're on schedule which they may not be. They've been erratic the last few years. But if they do come they will effectively put a damper on any attempted coup – Geddes smiled without mirth at my unintended pun.

'Anyway, no army commander will take that chance. I'd say that if it happens, it will be within the month or not for another six months.'

'And if you had to bet?'

I tapped the table with my forefinger. 'Now.'

'And us with a three year contract,' mused Geddes wryly. 'What the hell's happened to Shelford and his department? He should know about all this?'

'How could he when he doesn't take the trouble to go and find out? I'd kick him out on his ass if I had my way.'

'We don't do things that way,' said Geddes stiffly.

I grinned. No, Geddes would shaft Shelford in the well-bred British fashion. There'd be a report in the Financial Times that Mr Shelford was going from strength to strength in the hierarchy of British Electric and his picture would smile toothily from the page. But from then on he'd be the walking dead, with his desk getting emptier and his phone more silent, and eventually he'd get the message and quit to grow roses. And wonder what the hell had hit him. A stiletto under the third rib would be more merciful.

'But Sutherland should have known,' Geddes was saying. 'He should have told us.'

Although I had put the frighteners into John Sutherland myself I did not think he ought to share Shelford's imagined fate – he had much to learn but a great deal of company potential and I wanted him kept on the job. So I let him down lightly.

'He tried, back in that boardroom, but Shelford shouted him down. He's a good man and learning fast. It's just that he works too hard.'

'Oh yes?' Geddes was acidly polite. 'Is that possible?'

'It surely is. He should take out more time for his social life. He should get around more, do some drinking: drinking and listening. How the hell do you think I got all the dope I've just given you? I got it by damn near contracting cirrhosis of the liver drinking with a lot of boozy old colonial types who know more about what makes Nyala tick than the President himself. They're disillusioned, those men. Some have lived in Nyala all their lives but they know they'll always be on the outside because their skins are white. They're there by grace and favour now, discounted by the country's new masters, but they look and listen. And they know.' That's a precis of a Somerset Maugham story,' said Geddes sardonically. 'Does Sutherland know all this? Has he got the picture now?'

I shook my head. 'I thought I'd have a word with you first. Meantime I wouldn't be too surprised if he doesn't put some of it together for himself, while I'm away. I jumped on him a bit to frighten him but I don't think he's the