Exit Plan

3 April 2013

1300 Local Time/1800 Zulu

White House Situation Room

“I thought this was supposed to be a low risk, routine operation, Mr. Secretary,” exclaimed Myles angrily as he stormed into the situation room; a cloud of civilian and military advisors filed in behind him.

“Mr. President, our risk assessment was based on Iranian military capability, not on the possibility of a freak accident,” replied Secretary of Defense Springfield. “Who could have possibly foreseen this extraordinary piece of bad luck?”

Joanna quickly took a seat behind Kirkpatrick, checked her notes, and scanned the synopsis she had prepared, along with Guthrie’s proposed plan of action. Satisfied that she was as ready as she could be given the circumstances, she turned her attention to the president.

President Myles took a deep breath and let out an audible sigh. “I know, James. There was no way we could have anticipated this unbelievable complication. But as unfortunate as it is, it is now part of a much larger crisis after the IAEA report this morning and the Iranian general’s press conference.”

Earlier that morning, the International Atomic Energy Agency had released its long-awaited report on the latest inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities. The report was late, and it was a bombshell.

It stated that samples taken from discarded centrifuges at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant showed uranium hexafluoride residue with Uranium-235 enrichment levels of 85 %, well beyond that needed for any civilian purpose. In its final paragraph, the Board of Governors had concluded that this was not a case of cross contamination from another source. The uranium was of Iranian origin, and there was only one purpose for U-235 concentrations of such magnitude — the development of nuclear weapons.

Less than an hour after the IAEA’s report was released, IRGC Brigadier General Adel Moradi, head of security for the Iranian nuclear program, held a press conference broadcast by Iran’s FARS News, Al Jazeera, and other news affiliates throughout the Persian Gulf, Europe, and Asia. Moradi first read from a prepared statement, denouncing the IAEA’s findings as sheer propaganda; claiming the report constituted nothing less than slander against the Islamic Republic by its most hated enemies — the Zionists and the Great Satan.

He went on to say that this deception was purposely designed to create a more toxic environment, one that would make it impossible for Iran to have a fair hearing at the court of world opinion, and would embolden those on the UN Security Council to demand additional punishments — punishments that were as unjustified as they were evil. He then added that the IAEA report was undoubtedly a fabrication, that the samples, if indeed they were taken from Iran, were planted on the used centrifuges. It was widely known that their peaceful nuclear program had suffered numerous technical setbacks over the years — from malicious causes as well as inexperience.

Moradi had paused momentarily; he was shown grabbing the podium more forcefully, as if he was drawing strength from it, and then launched into the climax of his prepared statement. “Since the IAEA has shown that it is nothing more than a puppet institution for the enemies of the Islamic Republic to attack it, Iran is withdrawing immediately from all safeguard agreements of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including the additional protocols. The IAEA has forty-eight hours to withdraw all its inspectors from the country All cameras and other monitoring devices will be removed from Iranian nuclear facilities immediately. Iran will weather this storm as it has the ones before, alone, resolute, and with faith that God will not abandon us.”

With a final cry of, “Allahu Akbar — God Is Great!” the general had departed the podium. He did not respond to any of the questions shouted at him.

The two events had left everyone in Washington, D.C., in a state of shock. Unexpected, and almost unbelievable, the policy apparatus of the Myles administration was still struggling to regain its bearings.

“Agreed, Mr. President,” injected Kirkpatrick. “I believe we should make the most of this respite to formulate a plan to deal with this crisis.”

There were confused looks from all those seated at the table, including the president, whose response was snippy. “Respite? What respite? What are you talking about, Ray?”

“It is a statistically proven fact, sir, that bad things happen in threes. Well,” he continued with a wide grin, “we’ve had our three. Certainly we are due a break now.”

Even Myles had to crack a smile at Kirkpatrick’s witticism, and the tension in the room dropped noticeably. His subtle message to the group had been received; stop complaining about what has happened, and start dealing with it.

“Sound wisdom as always, Ray,” conceded Myles. “Since Secretary of State Lloyd is otherwise engaged with the Israeli ambassador, I believe we can begin.”

“Yes, sir,” said Kirkpatrick. “We’ll start with a recap of the accident, followed by our current status and options.” Looking around the room, he found the president’s chief of staff over in the corner taking notes. “Milt, when is our video teleconference with Captain Guthrie?”

“It’s scheduled for 1315, sir. In ten minutes.”

“Then we’d better get started.” Kirkpatrick signaled Joanna. She rose and began her briefing.

“Mr. President, at approximately ten thirty-five A.M., our time, the Advanced Seal Delivery System minisub suffered a catastrophic battery failure that resulted in the death of one crew member and the loss of the vessel. While there isn’t any hard data for us to look at, the pilot reported a high temperature alarm in the after battery followed by a rapid and uncontrollable rise in temperature. We suspect that one or more of the lithium-ion battery cells experienced thermal runaway, became unstable, and exploded.”

General Dewhurst, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated he had a question. “Dr. Patterson, what do you mean by thermal runaway?”

“General, during thermal runaway an overheating battery undergoes an increase in its chemical reaction rate due to the excessive heat. This generates even more heat and the cycle feeds on itself until the battery cell ruptures or explodes. This can, and has led to fires. If you remember the laptop battery recall of six or seven years ago, there was a problem with some lithium-ion batteries manufactured in China that caused several laptops to burst into flames. Impurities in the composition of the battery plates likely caused those batteries to short-circuit and produce enormous quantities of heat.”

“And this is what happened to the ASDS?” Springfield asked.

“It’s our best theory, sir,” replied Joanna.

“If lithium-ion batteries are prone to catching on fire, why would the Navy outfit a minisub with them?” asked a dumbfounded Dewhurst.

Before Joanna could answer the question, Kirkpatrick thumped the desk loudly with his fingers. “Gentlemen, we are not here to determine how and why the ASDS sank. We need to focus on the problem at hand: How do we get our people out of Iran? If you have additional technical questions, Dr. Patterson will be happy to address them after we are done here. Please continue, Joanna.”

“Yes, sir,” she replied, flipping to the next page in her notes. “The four-man SEAL extraction team abandoned ship approximately one nautical mile from the Iranian coast. The pilot abandoned ship right after he set two scuttling charges. The explosion of these charges was detected by USS Michigan at ten forty-four A.M. our time. At eleven forty-eight A.M., the SEALs successfully made contact with Opal and his spouse, and by eleven fifty-five A.M. they established satellite radio communications with Michigan and reported in.

“The contingency plan called for a Zodiac combat rubber raiding craft to be deployed from Michigan to recover the extraction team and the Iranians. Captain Guthrie, as the operational commander, scrubbed the mission at the last moment. He based his decision on the close proximity of IRGC patrol boats and that Michigan was too far away from the coast for the raiding craft to have a reasonable chance of slipping in undetected. Since the patrol boats are better armed and considerably faster than a Zodiac, he felt it was unwise to risk additional lives given that the probability of success was, in his words, ‘less than slim to none.’ He ordered the SEAL element ashore and the pilot to assume their preplanned layup position located in some hills approximately nine kilometers to the northeast from the rendezvous point. And that concludes my summary, Mr. President.”

“Dr. Patterson, you mentioned that Captain Guthrie felt he was too far away to deploy the rubber raiding craft,” noted Myles carefully, his tone stern. “Can I presume that he has requested permission to take Michigan into Iranian territorial waters?”