“Intelligence reports said that the Iranians were gearing up to launch an attack on the Abraham Lincoln carrier group when it entered the Persian Gulf,” Freeman responded. “The Iranians stole those islands from the United Arab Emirates and started basing antiship, antiaircraft, and long-range ballistic missiles there.”
“‘Intelligence reports’ have been saying that same thing for years now,” Hartman said. “And Iran didn’t ‘steal’ those islands—they once owned them. The ownership is in dispute, that’s all, and negotiations with the United Arab Emirates were ongoing.”
“Iran’s not negotiating any longer,” Freeman said. “It looks like the Iranians are going to block the Strait of Hormuz with their aircraft carrier battle group.”
“They’re going to park their what?” Vice President Whiting asked in complete surprise.
“You heard correctly, Ms. Vice President,” Freeman said. “The Khomeini, Iran’s new aircraft carrier, has put to sea. A fourteen-ship battle group, including two of their three Kilo-class submarines.”
“Iran has an aircraft carrier? Since when?” Whiting exclaimed.
“Since 1995 at least,” Freeman responded, and related the details of its transformation from the ex-Russian carrier Varyag.
“This is unbelievable!” Whiting said. “And now they’re going to park that thing in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz to block anyone else from entering the Persian Gulf?”
“General, better give us a quick rundown on that battle group;” the President said.
“Yes, sir,” Freeman said. He referred to his notes only briefly; he had received many detailed briefings on the Iranian military’s recent developments and knew the information, updated daily, almost by heart: “The Khomeini aircraft carrier battle group is the largest and most powerful seagoing battle group in southwest Asia, with the exception of our own—and in normal day-to-day postures, we’re certainly outnumbered, if not outgunned. Most of the ships are ex-U.S. or ex-British frigates and destroyers, but new hardware was acquired over the past three years during the Russians’ big arms fire sales, and with arms deals with China.
“Leading the group is the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Although the Iranians call it a ‘defensive aviation cruiser,’ it’s a pure aircraft carrier, designed for high-performance fixed-wing aircraft, not just vertical-takeoff jets or helicopters. It carries an air group of twenty-four fixed-wing and fifteen rotary-wing aircraft, including two squadrons of twelve Sukhoi-33 Flanker-D fighter-bombers; it can carry probably another six to ten planes above- deck, including carrier-modified Sukhoi-25 bombers and MiG-29 fighters. The ship and the planes are top-of-the-line Russian hardware and weapons—the Iranians spent four billion dollars in the past five years outfitting this ship.
“The Khomeini carries lots of anti-ship and antiaircraft weapons as well,” Freeman continued. “The Varyag was originally designed to carry nuclear anti-surface cruise missiles; we don’t think the Khomeini has any nukes, but it certainly has cruise missiles, probably ex-Russian SSN-12 Sandbox, good against ships or shore targets. The Sukhoi-33 fighter-bomber carries the Kh-41 Mosicit short-range and AS-18 Kazoo long-range ground-and maritime- attack missiles, along with air-to-air missiles. The Varyag was primarily designed as an anti-submarine warfare vessel, and so the Khomeini still has a pretty good ASW capability.”
“It’s a violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime agreement to sell sophisticated missile stuff to Iran,” Hartman pointed out. “Russia and China both signed that agreement.”
“But Iran didn’t officially get them from Russia—they got the missiles from Ukraine, Serbia, and the Czech Republic, as well as North Korea. None of these countries signed the MTCR agreement—none of these countries except North Korea even existed in 1989, and North Korea thumbs its nose at the rest of the world all the time,” Freeman said. “The bottom line is this: Iran can get its hands on any military hardware it wants, and there’s little we can do about it. If we sanctioned every country that sold Iran modern military hardware, we’d alienate three- quarters of our trading partners.
“The Iranian carrier group also includes the Chinese destroyer Zhanjiang, a very capable guided-missile destroyer,” Freeman went on. “This is supposedly being used to House Chinese officers who are also training on the Khomeini, but the destroyer was involved in shooting down the spy plane, so it’s obviously responding to orders from the Iranian commanders. The Iranians did buy one conventional Russian cruiser, which they call the Sadaf, both it and the Zhanjiang carry a big payload of surface, air, and anti-submarine weapons, but its primary purpose is carrier air defense. The group has two ex-U.S. Knox-class frigates to help out with antisubmarine defense, left over from our arms deals with the Shah, armed with Soviet- and Chinese-made missiles and electronics plus four ex- British frigates and four ex-Chinese Houku-class fast guided-missile patrol boats for outer-area screening; these boats carry Chinese-made antiship cruise missiles. The group includes a whole bunch of support vessels.”
“Thanks to our ‘friends’ in Pakistan and Bangladesh, the Iranians have lots of U.S.-made ships and equipment,” the Vice President said acidly.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iran start flying F-16 fighters soon,” Secretary of Defense Chastain interjected.
“That’s not a joke, sir,” Freeman observed. “We believe Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, as well as China are supplying Iran with advanced Western hardware. It comes down to simple economics: few countries can afford to turn down the money Iran is paying for arms and advanced technology.”
“Are they a threat to the Lincoln carrier group?” the President asked.
“By itself, they can’t stand up against a carrier battle group like the Lincoln, sir,” Chastain chimed in. Chastain, a four-term U.S. Senator and nationally recognized military affairs expert, was well suited for his post in the Pentagon; unlike many political appointees, he knew the U.S. military as well as he knew Congress, and he had made himself familiar over the years with modern warfare and strategic thinking. “However, they would most likely operate well within range of land-based air forces and it could call upon another one hundred small attack craft to harass our group. I feel certain we could destroy most of iran’s air force and navy in a matter of days. Shadowing the Lincoln would just highlight how small the Khomeini is next to our ships—you can set the Khomeini on Lincoln’s deck with plenty of room to spare.” Chastain’s smile flickered, then faded as he asked: “What about that third Kilo sub, General? Is it in dry dock as last reported?”
“We haven’t located the Iranian Kilo submarine—we thought it was in dry dock at the new sub base at Chah Bahar, but it disappeared,” Freeman acknowledged. He turned to the President: “The Kilo-class subs are diesel subs, no anechoic—anti-sound—coating on their hull, but still much quieter than nuclear-powered subs because they run on batteries while submerged. They can’t stay under as long, but when they’re under they’re hard to find and track, especially in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.”
“They could cause a hell of a lot of destruction with two subs and an aircraft carrier, no matter how much firepower we bring against them,” the Vice President added. The Oval Office fell silent once again; even Chastain, an ardent Navy supporter, couldn’t argue with that. “I think it’s unlikely we’ll get into a carrier war with Hartman added, “but it’s a major concern. An American carrier hasn’t been sunk in combat since the battle of Midway—it would be a tremendous boost to Iranian morale if they did it, even if they eventually lost the war.
“We’re going to see that scenario doesn’t happen,” the President said resolutely. “I don’t like the idea of Iran threatening us or barring us from navigating the open seas, but the Lincoln group could be a major target. I’m not prepared to send them in harm’s way until we’re ready to go all out and defend them with everything we’ve got.
“Arthur, keep the Lincoln group in the Arabian Sea for now until we find out more.” The Secretary of Defense reluctantly nodded in agreement. To the National Security Advisor, the President asked, “Phil, any speculation on what Iran might do if they start a shooting war?”
“The new Iranian military doctrine is simple: ensure Muslim world security and demonstrate its leadership by strict control of the skies and seas over and near its borders,” Freeman said.
“Well-armed internal security forces like the Pasdaran hunt down insurgents and rebels and control the border; this leaves the regular military forces free to roam all of southwest Asia. The regular military’s primary emphasis is on three areas: the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman; by far, the most important of these areas is the Strait of Hormuz—it’s the choke point in the sea lanes to and from the Persian Gulf.
“The conventional theory says that if Iran is provoked, they’ll cut off the Strait of Hormuz by application of massive shore-based anti-ship missile attacks, backed up by air-to-surface missile attacks using large numbers of supersonic aircraft, including heavy bombers, and by small, fast attack boats carrying anti-ship missiles or guns,” Freeman went on. “The missile sites would be defended with heavy concentrations of ground, sea, and airborne air defense forces that they’ve built up in tremendous numbers over the past few years. Without the application of concentrated suppression attacks, the Strait of Hormuz would become an impenetrable gauntlet. If successful, Iran
