Japanese with the Sea of Japan. The Chinese government will not like being told what to do in their own front yard.”
“If the Chinese lost an aircraft over the Gulf of Mexico, I wouldn’t mind if they brought search teams or even an aircraft carrier battle group in to search—we’d keep an eye on them, but I’d allow it,” Phoenix said. “We’re not going to play power politics or geopolitical upmanship with a search, rescue, or recovery mission—China must not interfere, period. I want the crash site located and secured from the air as well as the surface. Warn anyone nearing the area to remain clear.”
“And if they don’t, Mr. President?” Kevich asked.
“Have the on-scene commander for the rescue report to me if the Chinese won’t cooperate,” Phoenix replied after a short pause for consideration. “Commanders can do whatever they need to do to protect their forces, but no other action without approval. Tensions are going to be high—I don’t want anyone shooting first and asking questions later.” Glenbrook nodded and picked up the telephone to issue the orders.
Several minutes later, Vice President Ann Page entered the Situation Room, carrying a secure tablet computer. She was accompanied by Thomas Torrey, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Page was a multidegree engineer and physicist by training, but her background spanned the universe, from her years as a U.S. senator from California to one of America’s most experienced astronauts and space weapons designers. Slender and energetic, with short gray hair, she was the president’s closest adviser. Torrey was a thirty-year veteran of the CIA despite looking no older than forty years of age; in the drastic downsizing of the federal government under the Phoenix administration, the post of director of national intelligence was eliminated and once again the CIA director oversaw all civil foreign intelligence operations in the United States. “Tom just gave me the transcript of the text messages sent by the surveillance plane, Mr. President,” Page said, holding up the computer. “The crew believed the J-20 fighters launched from the carrier.”
“They obviously wanted us to see those fighters, sir,” Torrey said. “The Chinese could even have allowed the Poseidon to come in close enough to see them launch from the carrier.”
“But why would they shoot down the Poseidon?” the president asked. “It doesn’t make sense.”
“Something else happened out there,” Page said. “The text transmissions stopped abruptly for some reason. Then several minutes later one of our Asian search-and-rescue satellites picked up a ‘Mayday’ distress call with the Poseidon’s partial call sign. No other transmissions were picked up until the SARSAT received the Poseidon’s emergency locator beacon, which is usually activated either manually or after a crash.” The SARSAT, or Search and Rescue Satellite, was a satellite dedicated to picking up and relaying signals from aircraft and vessel emergency beacons, providing accurate position data to rescuers. “It was obviously activated manually because the position of the plane changed quite a bit, as if it was still flying. Then the position stopped. But the plane’s track was only active for a couple minutes.”
“So they didn’t activate it manually until just before they hit the water?” the president asked. “Would they do it so late?”
“Depends on what they were experiencing,” Torrey said. “If they had an in-flight emergency, such as a fire or flight-control problem, perhaps they were dealing with that right before they crashed.”
“We may not know anything until we recover whatever’s left of the plane and its black boxes,” Page said. “Even then, we still may not know for sure.”
“So the Chinese may not be culpable after all,” Secretary of State Kevich said. “Sir, do you still want to issue the order to keep the Chinese away from the crash site? They are obviously closer to the site and have considerable resources to conduct a rescue. If they offer their assistance—or if they initiate a search-and-rescue effort on their own, as any nation or vessel on the high seas should—we should welcome such cooperation. After all, China is not our enemy.”
“That might be the neighborly thing to do, Herbert,” Phoenix said, “but I think it’s no coincidence that one of our surveillance planes falls out of the sky near a Chinese carrier battle group. I want the reason why that plane went down determined as best we can before I rule anything out. If this was indeed a deliberate act and not an accident or malfunction, then whoever did it will try to erase the evidence—and if that someone is China, and if they reach the crash site, I think that’s exactly what they’d do.”
Kevich looked at the president carefully for a few moments. “We’ve had this discussion before, sir, after the Chinese withdrew from Somalia,” he said carefully and directly, “but it does bear repeating: presuming China as an adversary may make it come true, even though they may not be.”
“I don’t think of China as an adversary, Herbert,” the president said. Kevich gave him a skeptical expression; the president paused for a few moments, then nodded. “To be honest, Herbert, I consider them a serious
“With respect, sir, I think much of that comes from fear,” Kevich said.
“Maybe so, Herbert,” Vice President Page said, bristling at the insinuation that Kenneth Phoenix was fearful of anything. “But the Chinese government is not doing very much to lift the unknowns and secrecy that are causing fear to rise. We’re not asking them to reveal every secret or strategy. They are more than happy to accept our efforts at openness and cooperation, but it’s rarely mutual.”
“The Chinese are an old and insular people, Miss Vice President,” Kevich said. “They are isolated politically, geographically, and culturally. It is important for us to remember and understand that the nations of the West have done nothing but exploit China from the sea for centuries. Now that China is embarking on a program to modernize and increase trade with the world, we become suspicious. They are looking to the future and willing to wait to become a world power. We think in terms of months or fiscal quarters—the Chinese think in terms of decades or even generations.”
“All that may be true, Herbert,” the president said, “but it always hasn’t been the case. Chinese explorers have traveled half the globe. Isolation has mostly been the chosen method for controlling their enormous population, especially when their maritime provinces became rich and powerful and the agrarian inland provinces stayed in abject poverty. Besides, this is the twenty-first century—no nation, not even China, can remain isolated.”
“And when we get reports nearly every day of another computer or network hacking attempt traced back to a Chinese government-owned or controlled entity,” Page said bitterly, “I wonder if the war has already started—we’re just not engaged in it yet.”
“All I’m saying, Miss Vice President, is that it makes little sense to me why a three-thousand-year-old nation would do anything to threaten its own existence, especially versus the most economically and militarily powerful nation on Earth,” Kevich said. “Although China is undergoing an economic and military surge, please remember that its economy is still one-third of ours; we have over a hundred years of naval aviation experience, while they have just a few; and we still remain a world power, while China is only on the brink of becoming a regional power.”
“But that region is pretty damned important to us and the rest of the world, Herbert,” Ann said. “If this incident turns out to be a bid by Beijing to claim sovereignty over the South China Sea region, we need to squash that plan immediately.”
“If they were involved in the Poseidon incident, I would expect it to turn out to be an accident or an isolated incident by an inexperienced and misguided sea captain, and we should keep open minds so as to not threaten our strategic relationship,” Kevich went on. “Never forget, we rely closely on each other in dozens of areas: trade, finance, investment, education, technology, geopolitical balance, the list goes on. The fate of the entire planet rests on the balance between the West and China. One incident shouldn’t threaten to upset that balance.”
President Phoenix remained silent for a few long moments, then nodded. “Points well taken, Herbert,” he said finally. “Maybe I am jumping to conclusions.” Kevich nodded and smiled, satisfied that his arguments seemed to win over the president. But his smile faded when the president went on, “But I still don’t want the Chinese near that crash scene. We’ll politely but firmly ask them to stay away while we conduct search, rescue, recovery, and investigation activities.”
“I reiterate, sir: China considers the South China Sea of the utmost strategic value—sending in a large armada of ships, even to mount a search and rescue, may be perceived as a provocation,” Kevich said.
“I understand what you’re saying, Herbert,” the president said, “but we’re not going to get into a philosophical discussion about foreign relations with China when we have American sailors down in the South China Sea.” He thought for a moment, then continued: “I’ll call Premier Zhou right away and notify him of our intentions, and ask him not to allow any vessels to interfere. I’ll also speak with Prime Minister Ruddock of Australia, Tran of Vietnam, Cruz of the Philippines, and Saleh of Indonesia. They should all know what is happening and what we
