Tiger's Claw: A Novel

OFFICE OF THE FOREIGN MINISTER, ZHONGNANHAI, BEIJING, CHINA

A FEW DAYS LATER

“Wanshang hao. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen around the world,” the broadcast began in English. “I am Tang Ji, foreign minister of the government of the People’s Republic of China. Greetings to you all. With me is Colonel General Zu Kai, chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army. We will give a short statement on behalf of President Zhou Qiang. It is the president’s most sincere desire to reduce recent military activities and rising tensions that have resulted in the unfortunate loss of life. The people and government of China want nothing more than peace, security, and prosperity for all.

“As you may know, the People’s Republic of China has historical and legal rights to all the waters enclosed by the first island chain, which are all waters west of the Korean peninsula, the Ryukyu Islands to Taiwan, the western Philippine Islands, and north of Borneo to Vietnamese territorial waters,” Tang went on in very good English. “However, we realize that other nations ignore historical precedent and do not agree with this. In the interest of peace, China has not exerted its rights or prevented any foreign vessels from transiting the area and has preferred and sought peaceful negotiations to resolve our issues.

“However, other nations have begun to take advantage of the peace and have sent military aircraft, survey vessels, and then warships into these waters. The survey vessels wish to extract oil and gas from territory belonging to China; and the warships likewise seek to take advantage of China’s neutral stance to increase their hostile presence and protect their illegal mining and drilling operations. China was forced to respond. China deeply regrets the accidental and unintentional downing of American search aircraft during a rescue mission, but it was a direct by-product of the increasing military activities taking place in the South Sea. China has no choice but to respond. General Zu will present China’s military response to this urgent security crisis.”

General Zu and an interpreter stepped forward to the dais. “Good evening. I wish to inform you that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has instituted a defensive patrol regime within the first island chain, particularly of the southern South Sea, or as some of you refer to it the South China Sea. The Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups Zhenyuan and Zheng He have been dispatched and will conduct surface and air patrols of the area to identify and classify every vessel transiting this area. We will also be stepping up aerial and satellite patrols as well.

“I must emphasize that this is not a cordon or blockade of the Nansha Dao, Xisha Dao, Taiwan, or the South Sea,” Zu said. “China will not impede or interfere with any peaceful movement through the area, including that of military vessels. However, for the safety of our personnel and to lower the risk of accidental conflict, we will institute strict policies regarding the actions of certain military vessels transiting the area.

“With regards to aircraft carriers: all foreign aircraft carriers must block all but one of their aircraft launching catapults by the use of parked and chained aircraft while within the first island chain, which includes Nansha Dao and Xisha Dao, and within two hundred kilometers of Chinese aircraft carriers or the Chinese shore. We realize that many navies rely on patrol and supply aircraft, so we will not request any restrictions on the type of aircraft that may be launched or recovered, but in the interest of peace we request that only patrol aircraft launch while in the area. This may seem like a drastic request, but many nations require similar restrictions while transiting their territorial waters, and for the first time China will now institute this requirement for a limited time only. Monitoring compliance of this request will be made by patrol boats, satellite, and patrol aircraft. We place no restrictions on carriers that use the so-called ski-jump launching method. Warships of the People’s Liberation Army Navy will also conform to this limitation when farther than two hundred kilometers from land.

“With regard to subsurface vessels: they represent the greatest danger to peace and security in the region. Therefore, China will consider any submerged submarine detected within the first island chain as hostile, and will act accordingly. China likewise will not sail any submarine submerged through this area.”

Zu abruptly stepped away from the dais, and Foreign Minister Tang took his place. “These may seem like unreasonable and even belligerent demands, ladies and gentlemen, but I assure you, our goal is to reduce tensions in the area and restore lasting peace as quickly as possible,” he said. “President Zhou, the Politburo, the general staff, and the good people of China seek nothing else. We humbly welcome and solicit your cooperation during this difficult time. Xiexie. Thank you.” Tang bowed, turned with his eyes averted, and left the dais.

THE WHITE HOUSE OVAL OFFICE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

THAT SAME TIME

“Why, Zhou and Zu have got to be smoking some wacky terbacky,” Vice President Ann Page said with a laugh. “Are they kidding? No submarines in the South China Sea? One usable catapult on our aircraft carriers? Are they serious?” Along with the president and vice president in the Oval Office were Secretary of State Herbert Kevich, National Security Adviser William Glenbrook, Secretary of Defense Fredrick Hayes, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Timothy Spellings. Ann turned to Kevich. “And where is President Zhou, Herbert? No one has seen him in quite some time. Who’s in charge out there?”

“The real question is, Ann: What can they do to enforce these restrictions?” President Ken Phoenix asked. “General Spellings, what’s China got out there that could threaten us if they decide to carry through with these restrictions?”

“A lot, and growing every day, sir,” Spellings said. He read from his secure tablet computer: “As Zu mentioned, they have two carrier battle groups deployed right now. One, the Zhenyuan, is a ski-jump carrier, but it carries several advanced aircraft, although not with the same heavier loads as American carriers can carry. The Zheng He is a different matter: it’s a slant-deck carrier with steam catapults, very much like a Nimitz-class carrier except a bit smaller, and it can carry more aircraft with heavier payloads. They have an amphibious assault aircraft carrier, the Tongyi, which is based in the East China Sea and is expected to lead any operations against Taiwan or the Paracel Islands, but it could be swung into action farther south. It is another ski-jump carrier, but it carries mostly helicopters and amphibious assault craft, plus about five hundred Chinese marines. All these battle groups are supported by at least ten vessels, including guided-missile cruisers, destroyers, frigates, replenishment vessels, and submarines. Most of these support vessels are modern ex-Russian ships or indigenously built and stack up well against our legacy ships. They should be activating a third aircraft carrier battle group soon. Bottom line: they definitely geared up to match whatever we can put into the South China Sea.

“The big problem is offensive capability from the Chinese mainland, sir,” Spellings went on. “We have a qualitative advantage at sea—maybe slight, but still an advantage—but we start to lose it when it comes to support from shore. China has at least two dozen ballistic- and cruise missile antiship batteries within range of what they call the first island chain. That’s equivalent to another ship at sea but with vastly expanded coverage. The missiles are mobile, and they only take an hour to align and launch even if launched from an unsurveyed spot. They also have at least three bases with dozens of long-range H-8 bombers fitted with supersonic antiship missiles.

“And all this doesn’t include what we don’t know about the Chinese military,” Spellings went on. “We still don’t know for sure what knocked down the P-8 Poseidon or the Sea Eye drone. Military bloggers and some analysts who have reviewed the transmissions from the P-8 think that China may have employed some kind of microwave, nuclear, laser, or cyber weapon that knocked out the P-8’s electronics for a short time, similar to our netrusion technology we’ve used in the past. We just don’t know. But if they have a directed-energy weapon that can down any aircraft within a hundred miles or so from their carrier, we could be at a distinct disadvantage. We don’t have anything like that in our deployed arsenal right now.”

“That’s still not going to stop us from patrolling the South China Sea,” the vice president said, “and we’re going to put our aircraft on our carriers wherever we want. It was a silly statement for Zhou to make. They won’t risk a general war by attacking the United States, so when a ship goes through the area unmolested, it makes them look weak.”

“I agree with the vice president, sir: China wouldn’t dare attack an American aircraft carrier in the South