Presence task force and take the patrol burden away from them. Since we have so few Air Force personnel these days who know about B-1 bombers, we rely on contractors.”
“So these . . . private aircraft, they are not being armed?”
“No.”
“Is it possible to arm them, Mr. President?”
Phoenix leaned forward and looked Gao directly in the eye. “I think that depends on the nature of the threat, Mr. Vice President,” he said. He sat back in his chair after a brief but tense pause. “Truthfully, I don’t know if they can carry weapons, but right now I’ve ordered them to just patrol.”
“Would not the Global Hawks be a better aircraft for overwater patrols, Mr. President?”
“Everyone wants a Global Hawk these days, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “There just aren’t enough to go around. Besides, the Pacific is a big body of water. We got a good deal on refurbished B-1 bombers. It turns out they’re perfect for this mission.”
Gao nodded, still with a slightly surprised look on his face. “Refurbished strategic bombers operated by civilian contractors,” he muttered. “Very interesting indeed.”
“I’d like to get back to the issue of militarizing the western Pacific and South China Sea,” President Phoenix said. “Namely, your new aircraft carriers and the DF-21D antiship ballistic missile sites popping up around the region. You have two carrier battle groups in the South China Sea, and a third we understand, the former Spanish amphibious assault ship, is being readied for deployment in the East Sea. Your DF-21D ballistic missiles cover the entire region, including the Philippine Sea, Celebes Sea, Adaman Sea, and Strait of Malacca.”
“You seem to possess a great wealth of information as well, Mr. President,” Gao observed.
“That seems like a lot of firepower being deployed in a very short period of time, sir,” Phoenix said. “Why?”
“I am sure you know the reasons as well as I, Mr. President,” Gao said. “It is for the very same reasons you have such a large and powerful navy: you have long coastlines, and foreign trade and open lines of communication are essential to you, as it certainly is with China. At the risk of offending you by appearing to lecture you, sir, China has always been vulnerable from the sea. China is surrounded by natural barriers from every direction but the east, and most every foreign invader has attacked from the sea. And in the modern era, China relies more than ever on maritime trade.”
“But the ballistic missiles?”
“Purely defensive in nature, sir,” Gao said. “We are decreasing the size of our army, but it is still large and takes many resources. Our military budget is slowly expanding, and we are trying to modernize, but it will take years, perhaps even generations, to do so. We must rely then on technology for our defensive requirements. Half our population lives within three hundred kilometers of the sea. Our population centers are vulnerable to attack from the sea, even with a large army behind them.”
“The Dong Feng–21 has been described to me as a ‘carrier killer,’ Mr. Gao,” the president said. “Is that your intention—to kill aircraft carriers?”
Gao made what could have been a stiff chuckle. “I have seen your aircraft carriers, sir,” he said. “A missile that you launch from the back of a truck does not appear to me to be a match for a vessel that weighs almost one hundred thousand tons. No, sir, America’s aircraft carriers are not a target for China’s missiles.”
“Mr. Gao, we’ve been studying the DF-21D for almost ten years,” Phoenix said. “It’s based on a mobile medium-range ballistic missile. It has a maximum range of almost two thousand miles and a five-hundred-kiloton nuclear warhead. You’ve deployed dozens of them along your coast and several in foreign countries. You cannot pretend they’re insignificant.”
Gao appeared to remain motionless for several moments, then bowed his head slightly. “My apologies, sir,” he said, although his voice did not sound contrite in the least. “I do not intentionally make light of this very serious topic, and I again apologize for not treating you with the proper respect.” Phoenix did not say or do anything in response. “Allow me to speak plainly.”
“Please,” Phoenix said stonily.
“First of all, sir, the Dong-Feng missiles deployed currently are not armed with nuclear warheads,” Gao said. “They have a sixteen-hundred-kilogram high-explosive warhead and a range of only seven hundred kilometers. These are not ‘carrier killers,’ as you say—against a ship that size they may do some damage, but will not sink it.”
“But you can put a nuclear warhead on them, correct?” Phoenix asked.
Now it was Gao’s turn to look the president in the eye and say, “As you said, Mr. President, it depends on the nature of the threat.” Phoenix rewarded him with a hint of a smile and a nod. “Mr. President, let us again speak plainly. We both have vital national matters that require the protection of our armies and navies. We rely on free movement of the sea for our economic well-being. That imperative is not going away any time soon.
“Therefore, I am sure you know well that the People’s Republic of China has no intention of taking down our missiles or decommissioning our carriers,” Gao went on, “no more than the United States would beach its nuclear submarines or dry-dock its carriers. Our nations must protect themselves. It is lamentable that our forces confront each other as they did yesterday, but that is the nature of the world and of the current geopolitical and military posture in which we find ourselves.”
“Sounds like you’re resigned to accepting the current state of affairs, Mr. Vice President,” Phoenix said.
“I try to be realistic and pragmatic, sir,” Gao said. “America used its prosperity and status after World War Two to build a great navy with which to secure the seas so as to expand trade throughout the world. China is merely doing the same. We must export goods, so we must have unfettered access to the world’s oceans—and thus a military force capable of guaranteeing that access.”
“That is a very honest and forthright view of the situation, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “So why don’t you say that in your speech tomorrow? Why accuse the United States of trying to start a war with China by stationing a few aircraft on an island a thousand miles from China? Why invent half-truths about our naval forces?”
“Because the people of the world and the politicians who will listen to my speech do not care about pragmatism,” Gao said. “Pragmatism does not increase defense budgets or inspire boys and girls to become sailors or airmen or work on the docks or in the factories. My speech is designed to show the people of the world that China faces danger and we need to do something about that danger. I want to focus the world’s attention on what is happening around China’s shores, and to put the world on notice that China is developing the modern resources to protect itself. China is no longer an isolated third-world country with old outdated ideas, tactics, politicians, soldiers, and weapons. China is on the rise.”
“Sounds very ominous and fatalistic, sir,” Phoenix observed.
“Not at all, Mr. President,” Gao said, a slight smile forming on his lips. “I enjoy watching American football when I visit your country. When the receiver and the safeties are racing down the field, occasionally there is contact between them.” For the first time in their meeting, Gao raised both hands, extended his index fingers, and tapped the sides of each together. “No one meant to contact the other—they are both intent on watching the ball in the air. Usually no one is hurt, play is continued, and a touchdown, and interception, or an incompletion results. It is when one player decides to intentionally play the man and not the ball that a penalty has taken place.”
“Our job is to make sure no one commits a foul.”
“Exactly, sir.” Gao smiled again, proud of the president accepting his football analogy. “Contact I believe is inevitable. America’s imperative is domination and control of the seas; China’s imperative is no obstacles to continued worldwide growth and prosperity. They appear to be conflicting. But contact does not have to lead to disaster.” He paused for a moment, then said, “May I ask, sir: What do you think of our proposal?”
“Complete demilitarization of the South China Sea?” Phoenix asked. “I’m all for it, Mr. Gao. But what do the bombers on Guam have to do with the South China Sea?”
“They can obviously patrol with ease over the South Sea,” Gao said, “and each represents significant firepower directed at China. Reducing their numbers on Guam to the level before the tensions began, six maximum, or at least withdrawing them to Hawaii, would go a long way to reducing tensions in the region.
“At the same time you withdraw the bombers, China will withdraw its two aircraft carrier battle groups and its helicopter carrier battle group to our territorial waters, which I mean within twelve nautical miles of the mainland,” Gao went on. “We will no longer patrol around the Paracel or Spratly Islands. We still reserve the right for our warships to transit the region, and port visits and exercises would not be protested if announced in advance, but we will not patrol it with surface vessels or submarines.”
