almost as if Bogan were in the room.
“I agree with General Black, but Colonel Cascio has a doubt,” General Bogan said. “Very briefly his argument is that the Russians have devised a way to mask the real position of Group 6, which is probably flying back toward the States. What we read as Group 6 on the radar is actually a group of Soviet bombers up there for precisely one reason-to lead us to believe that we have accidentally launched a bomber group at Russia. I disagree with this analysis. But it should be considered.”
Around the table there were multiple signs of restlessness. Groteschele scratched on a pad of paper. Others reached for cigarettes. Stark looked down the table at Black. Black remained impassive, but he tensed for Swenson’s reply. A lot would depend on Swenson’s reaction to Cascio.
“Thank you, General Bogan,” Swenson said, without taking his eyes from Black’s face. “I agree with your evaluation of Colonel Cascio’s argument. Now, General Black, will you continue?”
“Every surveillance device we have has been thrown on the Russians,” Black said. “They have seven bomber groups in the air at this moment. None of these can- reach America without refueling. None f them is flying an attack course. All are following -hold pasterns inside Soviet control borders. An abnormally large number of Russian fighters are in the air, in fact approximately half of their fighters are air-borne. However, a simultaneous computer analysis of their flight patterns does not reveal a definite aggressive pattern. The Russians have launched no rockets as yet. Our devices which pick up sudden discharges of energy are probably our most reliable surveillance instruments. “I am confident that the Soviets have not used their ICBMs as yet.”
“What do you make of it?” Swenson invited anyone’s comment but his tone said “keep it short.”
“They have the same problem with our Group 6 as we had earlier with the UFO,” Allen of the National Security Council said. It was the first time he had spoken. “They don’t know what it is, why it is there, or even if it is ours.”
“The best answer happens also to be the simplest,” Black said calmly. “The Russians probably picked up the same unidentified object we did. They can’t understood why our planes started to fly toward their Fail-Safe points. This thing has happened scores of timed and they have gotten familiar with the sweat. But when one of our groups did not turn back they knew it as soon as we did. That accounts for their launching an abnormal number of fighter planes. My guess is that right now they do not consider our Group 6 to be hostile or aggressive although the behavior of our fighter planes will probably begin to worry them in a few minutes. If they see the fighters actually try to shoot down the Vindicators, they will know there has been some big and dangerous mistake.”
“Or they will think we are sending them in as a ruse,” Groteschele said sharply.
“That is correct,” Black said. “Whichever of these interpretations they make will be alarming to them. Even so, I would not expect them to take any kind of retaliatory or offensive action that could not be recalled unless Group 6 actually invades their air space or we start to take what appears to be broader hostile action in support of Group 6.”
Allen of the NSC walked back to his chair at the table. He had been speaking on a phone at the far end of the room.
“Mr. Secretary, I have been talking to the National Security Agency people,” Allen said. “As you know they keep a 24-hour a day surveillance on Soviet communications, making tape recordings of everything that is said.” (Black looked at Stark. They bad both heard that when the U-2 went down with Powers the NSA people had listened to the Soviet antiaircraft crews talking on the radio and knew that Powers had lost power and dropped to 86,000 feet.) Allen went on, “They tell me that there is no significant increase in Soviet military communications and they estimate that right now, the Soviet military apparatus is not on a full alert or in aggressive position.”
“Professor Groteschele, would you care to comment on what the Russians might be thinking?” Swenson said.
General Bogan’s voice cut in flatly and without apology from Omaha.
“Who is this Groteschele, Mr. Secretary?” General Bogan asked. “Why is he sitting in?”
Swenson’s reply was polite but edged with ice. “Professor Groteschele is a recognized authority on many of the matters before us and was invited here at the express wish of the President.”
Groteschele smiled. Quite unconsciously, he stood up, the posture of the professor addressing students. He chuckled and then abruptly broke it off. He had seen Swenson’s face, stony hard, eyes a flat commanding blue. The look Swenson gave Groteschele was as explicit as a command.
Then Groteschele, to Black’s astonishment, spoke crisply, without ambiguous words and without evasiveness. The Russian leaders are Marxist ideologues, he said, not normal people. They believe history is determined by nonhuman events which will assure the victory of Communism. Nuclear war would interrupt the process of this historical determinism. Russians have more to lose by war than we. Therefore, an American first attack would bring Russian surrender rather than nuclear retaliation.
Black felt a reluctant admiration for Groteschete. He disagreed with most of What Groteschele said, but when the chips were down and the crisis came, the man had stated his position without reservations.
“Just why would they surrender if we hit them?” Swenson asked.
“They are human calculating machines, Marxist fanatics, not motivated by rage or hate,” Groteschele said evenly. “If they are hit first, even with H-bombs, they know that if they retaliate they can destroy us or a substantial part of our people and resources. But they also know that we would have a second strike capacity which would devastate them. The important thing, for the Marxist, is to keep at least part of the Soviet Union intact. They would not be particularly worried about the survival of a capitalist country. In fact, many of them believe that capitalism must play itself out to its inevitable historical defeat before Communism can really succeed. To put it crudely: they want to be around for a while, and if the price they have to pay is that some free countries are also around they will pay it. They will not allow the world to be destroyed. They aim to dominate it eventually and they want it reasonably intact. So they would surrender.”
Swenson looked back at the Big Board. The fighter blips were very dose to Group 6. He swung around abruptly.
“In short you believe they are utterly in the grip of an ideology,” Swenson said. “Their logic and their fanaticism will make them act in a perfectly determined manner. Is that correct?”
Groteschele hesitated. He could not tell how Swenson evaluated this argument. He took a deep breath.
“Yes, sir, that is what I think,” Groteschele said slowly.
Again Black felt a flash of admiration. Groteschele was putting a whole career, a reputation, a school of thought, nakedly on the line. There was a good chance that before the day was out it would face judgment.
Swenson looked around the table, his silence inviting comments.
Groteschele could not afford the silence.
“What I am-arguing, Mr. Secretary, is that although my interpretation seems unusual and novel it is Simplicity itself,” Groteschele. said, “We should do nothing. If -I am correct the Russians will surrender, and if our leaders are sufficiently resourceful the threat of Communism is over forever.”
“Do nothing,” Swenson said quietly.
Groteschele was tough. Swenson was an amateur historian and a student of modern leadership. He had learned that all of the powerful leaders had known when to wait. The capacity to do nothing at the right time was part of great statesmanship. Swenson did not for a moment accept Groteschele’s analysis or his evidence. But his condusion might be right.
“Mr. Secretary, I think all of that is a lot of crap,” General Bogan’s voice cut in harshly from Omaha. “Look, I am under the gun more than any of you. I have to take all of this stuff from the computers and translate it into action. Don’t kid yourself. There are going to be three or four Russian generals at crucial spots who will react exactly the way I do: the best defense is a good offense. They will attack without giving a damn about what Marx or anyone else said.”
“Any other comments?” Swenson asked.
Groteschele had seated himself, but he was bent forward in his chair, tense with excitement. By his own act of will, he was almost at the point of committing the total energies of one hundred and ninety million people in an enormous military decision.
Swenson glanced at Black.
“Everything in Groteschele’s argument depends upon the extent to which Russian leaders are dominated by Marxist ideology,” Black said. “He believes that domination is complete. I think he is wrong. The CIA -did -a long study on this and it came to the conclusion that Soviet leaders made their decisions as
