Which side to take? The young candidate member made a swift decision. 'Inventories of light fuels-gasoline, diesel, et cetera-are high at the moment,' Sergetov had to admit. 'We always use the cold-weather months-the time when usage of these fuels is lowest-to build up our stocks, and added to this are our strategic defense reserves, enough for forty-five-'
'Sixty!' insisted the Defense Minister.
'Forty-five days is a more realistic figure, Comrade.' Sergetov held his position. 'My department has studied fuel consumption by military units as part of a program to increase the strategic fuel reserves, something neglected in past years. With savings in other consumption and certain industrial sacrifices, we might expand this to sixty days of war stocks, perhaps even seventy, plus giving you other stocks to expand training exercises. The near-term economic costs would be slight, but by midsummer this would change rapidly.' Sergetov paused, greatly disturbed at how easily he had gone along with the unspoken decision. I have sold my soul… Or have I acted like a patriot? Have I become like the other men around this ' table? Or have I merely told the truth-and what is truth? All he could be certain of, he told himself, is that he had survived. For now. 'We do have the limited ability, as I told you yesterday, to restructure our distillate production. In this case, my staff feels that a nine-percent increase in the militarily important fuels can be accomplished-based on our reduced production. I caution, however, that my staff analysts also feel that all existing estimates of fuel usage in combat conditions are grossly optimistic.' A last, feeble attempt at protest.
'Give us the fuel, Mikhail Eduardovich,' the Defense Minister smiled coldly, 'and we'll see it is properly used. My analysts estimate that we can accomplish our goals in two weeks, perhaps less-but I will grant you the strength of the NATO armies, and double our estimates to thirty days. We will still have more than enough.'
'And what if NATO discovers our intentions?' old Petya demanded.
'They will not. Already we are preparing our maskirovka, our trickery. NATO is not a strong alliance. It cannot be. The ministers bicker over each country's defense contribution. Their peoples are divided and soft* They cannot standardize their weapons, and because of it their supply situation is utter chaos. And their most important, most powerful member is separated from Europe by five thousand kilometers of ocean. The Soviet Union is only an overnight train ride from the German border. But, Petya, my old friend, I will answer your question. If everything fails, and our intentions are discovered, we can always stop, say that we were running an exercise, and return to peacetime conditions-and be no worse off than if we do nothing at all. We need strike only if all is ready. We can always draw back.'
Everyone at the table knew that was a he, though a clever one, because no one had the courage to denounce it as such. What army had ever been mobilized to be called back? No one else spoke up to oppose the Defense Minister. Bromkovskiy rambled on for a few minutes, quoting Lenin's stricture about endangering the home of World Socialism, but even that drew no response. The danger to the State-actually the danger to the Party and the Politburo-was manifest. It could not become graver. The alternative was war.
Ten minutes later, the Politburo voted. Sergetov and his eight fellow candidate members were mere spectators. The vote was eleven to two for war. The process had begun.
DATE-TIME 02/03 17: 15 COPY 01 OF 01 OF SOVIET-REPORT
BC-Soviet Report, Bjt, 2310-FL-
TASS Confirms Oil Field Fire-FL-
EDS: Moved in advance for SATURDAY PMs-FL-
BY: Patrick Flynn-FC-
AP Moscow Correspondent
MOSCOW (AP)-It was confirmed today by TASS, the Soviet news agency, that 'a serious f ire' had taken place in the western Siberian region of the Soviet Union.
A back-page article in Pravda, the official Communist Party newspaper noted the fire, commenting that the 'heroic fire brigade' had saved countless lives by its skill and devotion to duty, also preventing more serious damage to the nearby oil facilities.
The fire was reportedly begun by a 'technical malfunction' in the automatic refinery control systems and spread rapidly, but was swiftly extinguished, 'not without casualties among the brave men detailed to attack the fire, and the courageous workmen who raced heroically to their comrades' side.'
Though somewhat at odds with Western reports, the fire in the area did go out more quickly than had been expected. Western officials are now speculating about a highly sophisticated firefighting system built into the Nizhnevartovs facility that allowed the Soviets to extinguish the fire.
AB-BA-2-3 16: 01 EST-FL-
**END OF STORY**
3. Correlation of Forces
'They didn't ask me,' explained Chief of the General Staff Marshal Shavyrin. 'They didn't ask for my evaluation. The political decision was already made when they called me in Thursday night. When was the last time the Defense Minister asked me for a substantive judgmental decision?'
'And what did you say?' asked Marshal Rozhkov, Commander-in-Chief of Ground Forces. The initial response was a grim, ironic smile.
'That the armed forces of the Soviet Union were able to carry out this task, given four months of preparation.'
'Four months…' Rozhkov stared out the window. He turned back. 'We won't be ready.'
'Hostilities will commence on 15 June,' Shavyrin replied. 'We must be ready, Yuri. And what choice did I have? Would you have had me say, 'I am sorry, Comrade General Secretary, but the Soviet Army is unable to carry out this task'? I would have been dismissed and replaced by someone more tractable-you know who my replacement will be. Would you rather answer to Marshal Bukharin-'
'That fool!' Rozhkov growled. It had been the then-Lieutenant General Bukharin whose brilliant plan had led the Soviet Army into Afghanistan. Professionally a nonentity, his political connections had not only saved him, but continued his career to near the pinnacle of uniformed power. A clever man, Bukharin. Never involved in the mountain campaigns himself, he could point to his brilliant paper plan and complain that it had been poorly executed, after he had moved on to command of the Kiev Military District, historically the shining gate of marshal's rank.
'So, would you have him in this office, dictating your plans to you?' Shavyrin asked. Rozhkov shook his head. The two men had been friends and comrades since each had commanded a tank troop in the same regiment, just in time for the final surge toward Vienna in 1945.
'How are we to go about it?' Rozhkov asked.
'Red Storm,' the Marshal replied simply. Red Storm was the plan for a mechanized attack into West Germany and the Low Countries. Constantly updated for changes in the force structures of both sides, it called for a two-to three-week campaign commencing after a rapid escalation of tension between East and West. Despite this, in accordance with standard Soviet strategic doctrine, it called for strategic surprise as a precondition for success, and the use of conventional weapons only.
'At least they aren't talking about atomic arms.' Rozhkov grunted. Other plans with other names applied to different scenarios, including many for the use of tactical and even strategic nuclear arms, something no one in uniform wished to contemplate. Despite all the saber-rattling of their political masters, these professional soldiers knew all too well that the use of nuclear arms made only for ghastly uncertainties. 'And the maskirovka?'
'In two parts. The first is purely political, to work against the United States. The second part, immediately before the war begins, is from KGB. You know it, from KGB Group Nord. We reviewed it two years ago.'
Rozhkov grunted. Group Nord was an ad hoc committee of KGB department chiefs, first assembled by then- chief of the KGB Yuri Andropov in the mid-1970s. Its purpose was to research means of splitting the NATO alliance, and in general to conduct political and psychological operations aimed at undermining Western will. Its specific plan
