'To summarize, Mr. President, our policy is to go to Defcon 5. We put our bases in the South and in Japan on High Alert and begin flying over troops from Ft. Pendleton and Ft. Ord. If intelligence picks up any sign that Korean troops are mobilizing, we go immediately to Defcon 4 and start moving in our ships from the Indian Ocean, so the Rapid Deployment Forces will be in position. If the North Koreans match our movements with further deployments of their own, the dominos fall fast and we move quickly through the accelerated deployment of Defcon 3, 2, and 1.' He glanced at the screen and touched his finger to the chapter heading WAR GAMES. 'When we reach the point of no return, we have three possible scenarios.'
Hood looked from face to face. Everyone was calm, save for Lincoln who was leaning forward and tapping his right foot quickly. This was his kind of situation, his kind of big stick response. At the opposite end of the spectrum was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Melvin Parker. His face and posture were subdued, like Ernie Colon's. In situations like these, it was never the military men who advocated force. They understood the price of even a successful operation. It was always the politicians and appointees who were frustrated or impatient and wanted to get themselves a victory, however quick and dirty.
The Secretary of Defense pulled on reading glasses and studied the monitor. He ran his finger down the menu and touched the screen where it said DEFENSE WHITE PAPER UPDATE.
'If there's a war and the U.S. assumes a support role only, South Korea falls to the North in a matter of two or three weeks. You can see the matchup between the North and ROKA for yourself.'
Hood studied the figures. They looked as bad for the Republic of Korea Army as Colon had said.
Military Balance of the North and South is as follows:
After a few seconds, Colon brought up the menu again and touched U.S. 8TH ARMY UPDATE.
'The second scenario has our forces in the South becoming involved. Even then, the odds are not in our favor.'
Hood looked at the new screen.
United States Forces in South Korea, Number of Personnel
Army: 25,000
Navy: 400
Air Force: 9,500
Tanks: 200
Armored Vehicles: 500
Tactical Aircraft: 100
'The only value of us joining the South Koreans on the battlefield is the deterrent factor: does North Korea really want a war with the United States?'
CIA Director Kidd asked, 'Isn't that same deterrent present if we're in a strictly support mode?'
'Unfortunately, no. If Pyongyang thinks we haven't got the belly for a scrap, he'll push to Seoul the same way Baghdad went after Kuwait when they thought we'd sit on the sidelines.'
'And wasn't he surprised,' Lincoln muttered.
The President said impatiently, 'And the third scenario is a preemptive strike?'
'Right,' Colon said. 'We and the South Koreans together take out communications centers, supply lines, and nuclear reprocessing plants with conventional weapons. If the war games simulations are correct, the North Koreans go to the negotiating table.'
'Why wouldn't they turn to China and retaliate?' asked CIA Director Kidd.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Parker said, 'Because they know that since the aid cutbacks of 1968, and the inability since 1970 of the twelve ROK and two U.S. divisions to successfully stave off an attack, our defense plans have been keyed almost entirely to the early use of nuclear weapons.'
'Did we leak that information?' the President asked.
'No, sir. They read it in military journals. Christ, in 1974, Time or Rolling Stone or someone who hated Nixon did an article on our nuclear plans for Korea.'
Kidd leaned back. 'That still doesn't give us any kind of assurance they won't turn to China, and that Beijing won't support them with nuclear weapons.'
'We just don't see that as happening.' Colon went to the menu and touched the heading CHINA OPTION. 'Mel, the CONEX games are your area—'
'Right.' Despite the comfortable air-conditioning in the room, the diminutive Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was perspiring. 'We ran a Conflict Exercise of a scenario similar to this a while back, after Jimmy Carter went to North Korea for his little chat with Kim Il Sung. Given the military situation in China and psychological profiles of its leaders— which your people provided, Paul— we found that if we loosened restrictions on business investments in China, and concurrently authorized the shipment of arms to anti-Chinese factions in Nepal through India, the Chinese would be unlikely to become involved.'
'How unlikely?' the President asked.
'Eighty-seven percent chance of sitting on the sidelines.'
'We came up with a slightly different percentage in our own SAGA simulations,' Colon said, 'about seventy percent. But the Studies, Analysis, and Gaming Agency didn't have up-to-date psych profiles, so I'm inclined to go with Mel's findings.'
Though Hood was listening intently, his expression impassive, he found himself somewhat anxious about Liz's findings. He had a great deal of respect for his Staff Psychologist, just as he held his Operations Support Officer Matt Stoll in high regard. But he put computer analyses and psychology in the place and show slots, respectively, after good old-fashioned intuition. His Press Officer Ann Farris joked that he never met a gut feeling he didn't like, and she was right.
The President glanced at the clock on the bottom of the monitor, then steepled his hands. Colon motioned to the secretary to clear the screen, and Hood watched as screen saver missiles flew left and right across the monitor.
'Gentlemen,' the President said after a long silence, 'I would like all of you to serve on the Korean Task Force for the duration, and Paul' — he looked squarely at Hood— 'I want you to head it up.'
He caught the Op-Center Director off-guard— as well as everyone else in the room.
'You'll bring me an Options Paper in four hours. Barring further acts of terrorism or aggression, you'll proceed under the assumption that there will be some level of graduated deployment but no military action for the first twenty-four hours. That should give your people and the rest of the Task Force time to evaluate intelligence and write me an addendum.' The President rose. 'Thank you all. Av— meet me in the Oval Office at six so we can discuss the situation with our allies. Ernie, Mel— we'll brief the cabinet and members of the Armed Services Committee at seven. And, Paul, I'll see you at nine-thirty.'
The President left, trailed by the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Av Lincoln walked over to Hood.
'Congratulations, Paul. I sense an ass-kicking.' He leaned close. 'Just make sure it isn't your ass that gets kicked.'
He was right. The President had never given Op-Center a foreign crisis, and doing so now meant that he intended to strike hard and decisively, if given the chance. Should anything go wrong, he could pin it on the new kids on the block, shut down the agency, and suffer only minimal political damage. Then Hood could take a low-paying position at the Carter Center or the United States Institute of Peace, a convert to pacifism, a reformed sinner trotted out for public scourgings at dinners and symposia.
Av gave him a thumbs-up as he left, and after collecting his thoughts, Hood followed him to the elevator. In addition to having to take the fall for any failure, Hood wasn't keen on having to spend the next four hours playing ringmaster to a bureaucratic turf war as he teleconferenced with everyone who had been in attendance, formulating a cohesive strategy from six people with six very different agendas. It was part of the job, and he did it well, but he hated the way people did what was best for party and agency first and second, and for the country a distant third.
Still, there was the bright side to look at, the chance that he might just pull all this off. And as he contemplated that, the adrenaline began to flow. If the President was willing to take risks with Op-Center, Hood
