right?”
“Also correct, sir. He has a lot of one-on-ones with Narmonov, and that's why he's so valuable to us.”
“Fine, I can see that.”
“In their most recent meeting, he says, Narmonov said that his problems are indeed getting worse. He's allowed his military and security forces to increase their internal clout, but it would seem that this is not enough. There may be opposition to the arms-reduction treaty implementation. According to this report, the Soviet military wants to hold onto all of its SS-18s instead of eliminating six regiments of them as agreed. Our man says that Narmonov may be ready to give in to them on that point. Sir, that would be treaty violation, and that's why I'm here.”
“How important is it?” Liz Elliot asked. “The technical side, I mean.”
'Okay, we've never been able to make this very clear. Secretary Bunker understands, but Congress has never quite figured it out: since we're in the process of reducing nuclear arms by a little more than half, we've changed the nuclear equation. When both sides had ten thousand RVs it was pretty clear to everyone that nuclear war was a difficult — virtually impossible — thing to win. With so many warheads to hit, you'd never get them all, and there would always be enough left to launch a crippling counterattack.
“But with the reductions, the calculus changes. Now, depending on the mix of forces, such an attack becomes theoretically possible, and that's why the mix of forces was so carefully spelled out in the treaty documents.”
“You're saying that the reduction makes things more dangerous rather than less?” Fowler asked.
“No, sir, not exactly. I've said all along — I consulted with the treaty team back some years ago, back when Ernie Allen was running it — that the net strategic improvement from a fifty percent reduction was illusory, mere symbolism.”
“Oh, come on,” Elliot observed scathingly. “It's a reduction by half of—”
“Dr. Elliot, if you ever bothered to sit in on the C AMELOT games you'd understand this a little better.” Ryan turned away before he noticed her reaction to this rebuke. Fowler noticed her flush briefly and almost smiled in amusement at her discomfort at being cut down in front of her lover. The President returned his attention to Ryan, sure that he and Elizabeth would speak further on the matter.
“This issue gets very technical. If you don't believe me, ask Secretary Bunker or General Fremont out at SAC Headquarters. The deciding factor is the mix of forces, not the number. If they hold onto those extra SS-18 regiments, the mix is changed to the point at which the Soviets have a genuine advantage. The effect on the treaty is substantive, not merely numerical. But there's more.”
“Okay,” the President said.
“According to this report, there appears to be some collusion between the military and the KGB. As you know, while the Soviet military owns and maintains the strategic launchers, the warheads have always been under KGB control. Kadishev thinks that those two agencies are getting a little too cozy, and further that security on the warheads might be problematic.”
“Meaning what?”
“Meaning that an inventory of tactical warheads is being withheld.”
“Missing nukes?”
“Small ones. It's possible, he says.”
“In other words,” Fowler said, “their military may be blackmailing Narmonov, and it's possible that they are holding some small weapons as their trump cards?”
Not bad, Mr. President. “Correct, sir.”
Fowler was quiet for thirty seconds or so, turning that over in his head as he stared into space. “How reliable is this Kadishev?”
“Mr. President, he's been in our employ for five years. His advice has been very valuable to us, and to the best of our knowledge he's never misled us.”
“Possible that he's been turned?” Elliot asked.
“Possible but not likely. We have ways of dealing with that. There are prearranged code phrases which warn us of trouble. Good-news phrases accompany each report, and did in this case also.”
“What about confirming the report through other sources?”
“Sorry, Dr. Elliot, but we have nothing to confirm this.”
“You came down here with an unconfirmed report?” Elliot asked.
That is correct,“ Ryan admitted, not knowing how tired he looked. ”There aren't too many agents who could make me do that, but this is one of them.'
“What can you do to confirm that?” Fowler asked.
“We can make discreet inquiries through our own networks, and with your permission we can have careful discussions with some foreign services. The Brits have someone in the Kremlin who's giving them some really good stuff. I know Sir Basil Charleston, and I can make approaches, but that means revealing something of what we know. You don't do something like this on the old-boy net. At this level you have to make a real quid pro quo. We never do that without getting executive approval.”
“I can understand that. Give me a day to think about it. Does Marcus know about this?”
“No, Mr. President. He has the flu. Ordinarily, I would not have come here without consulting with the Director first, but I figured you would want to know about this quickly.”
“You've said previously that the Soviet military was more politically reliable than this,” Elliot observed.
“Also correct, Dr. Elliot. Action such as Kadishev reports is completely unprecedented. Historically, our worries about political ambition within the Soviet military have been as groundless as they've been continuous. It would seem that this may have changed. The possibility of a de facto alliance between the military and the KGB is most disturbing.”
“So, you were wrong before?” Elliot pressed.
“That is a possibility,” Ryan admitted.
“And now?” Fowler asked.
“Mr. President, what do you want me to say? Might I be wrong on this also? Yes, I may. Am I sure this report is accurate? No, I am not, but the import of the information compels me to bring it to your attention.”
“I'm less concerned with the missile issue than with the missing warheads,” Elliot said. “If Narmonov is facing real blackmail… wow.”
“Kadishev is a potential political rival to Narmonov,” Fowler noted speculatively. “Why confide in him?”
“You meet regularly with the congressional leadership, sir. So does he. The political dynamic in the Congress of People's Deputies is more confused than on the Hill. Moreover, there's genuine respect between the two. Kadishev has supported Narmonov more often than he's opposed the man. They may be rivals, but there is also a commonality of views on many key issues.”
“Okay, I want this information confirmed any way you can, and as quickly as you can.”
“Yes, Mr. President.”
“How's Goodley working out?” Elliot asked.
“He's a bright kid. He's got a good feel for the Eastern Bloc. I read over a paper he did up at the Kennedy School a while back, and it was better than our people did at the time.”
“Get him in on this. A fresh mind might be useful,” Liz opined.
Jack shook his head emphatically. “This is too sensitive for him.”
“Goodley is that Presidential Fellow you told me about? Is he that good, Elizabeth?” Fowler wanted to know.
“I think so.”
“My authority, Ryan, let him in,” the President ordered.
“Yes, sir.”
“Anything else?”
“Sir, if you have a minute, we did have something else come in about Japan.” Jack explained further for a few minutes.
“Is that a fact…?” Fowler smiled in his clever way. “What do you think of them?”
“I think they like to play games,” Ryan answered. “I do not envy the folks who have to negotiate with them.”
“How can we find out if this is true?”
