PROVOCATIONS, WE CAN END THIS CRISIS, BUT I CANNOT TELL MY PEOPLE NOT TO DEFEND THEMSELVES.
“'Restrain your forces'? God damn it,” the Defense Minister swore. “We haven't done anything! He's accusing us of provoking him! His tanks have invaded east Berlin, his fighter-bombers have attacked our forces there, and he just confirmed the fact that his carrier aircraft have attacked ours! And this arrogant madman now says that we must not provoke him! What does he expect us to do — run away everywhere we see an American?”
“That might be the most prudent thing we can do,” Golovko observed.
“Run like a thief from a policeman?” Defense asked sarcastically. “You ask that we should do that?”
“I suggest it as a possibility to be considered.” The First Deputy Chairman of KGB stood his ground bravely, Narmonov thought.
“The important part of this message is the second sentence,” the Foreign Minister pointed out. His analysis was all the more chilling for its matter-of-fact tone. They say that they do not believe this was a terrorist attack. Who is left as a likely attacker, then? He goes on to say that America has not retaliated against anyone yet. The subsequent statement that they have no evidence to suggest that we perpetrated this infamy is, I think, rather hollow when juxtaposed with the first paragraph.'
“And running away will only make it more clear to him that we are the ones who started this,” Defense added.
“'More clear'?” Golovko asked.
“I must agree with that,” Narmonov said, looking up from his chair. “I must assume now that Fowler is not rational. This communique is not well-reasoned. He is accusing us, quite explicitly.”
“What is the nature of the explosion?” Golovko asked the Defense Minister.
“A weapon of that size is indeed too large for terrorists. Our studies indicate that a first- or even second- generation fission device might be achievable, but the maximum yield for such a device is certainly less than a hundred — probably less than forty kilotons. Our instruments tell us that this device was well over a hundred. That means a third-generation fission weapon, or more likely, a multi-stage fusion device. To do that is not the work of amateurs.”
“So, then, who could have done it?” Narmonov asked.
Golovko looked over to his president. “I have no idea. We did uncover a possible DDR bomb project. They were producing plutonium, as you all know, but we have good reason to believe that the project never truly got underway. We've looked at ongoing projects in South America. They are not to this point, either. Israel has such capabilities, but what reason would they have to do this? Attack their own guardian? If China were to do something like this, they would more likely attack us. We have the land and resources they need, and America has much more value to them as a trading partner than as an enemy. No, for this to be a project of a nation-state means that only one of a handful has the ability to do it, and the problems of operational security are virtually insurmountable. Andrey Il'ych, if you directed KGB to do this, we probably could not. The type of individual necessary for such a mission — by that I mean the skill, intelligence, dedication — are not qualities which you find in a psychotic; murder on this scale, likely to bring about such a crisis as this, would require a diseased personality. KGB has no such people, for the obvious reason.”
“So, you are telling me that you have no information, and that you can find no sensible hypothesis to explain the events of this morning?”
“That is the case, Comrade President. I wish I could report something else, but I cannot.”
“What sort of advice is Fowler getting?”
“I don't know,” Golovko admitted. “Secretaries Talbot and Bunker are both dead. Both were watching the football match — Defense Secretary Bunker was the owner of one of the teams, in fact. The Director of CIA is either still in Japan or on his way back from there.”
“The Deputy Director is Ryan, correct?”
“That is true.”
“I know him. He is not a fool.”
“No, he is not, but he is also being dismissed. Fowler dislikes him, and we have learned that Ryan has been asked to resign. Therefore, I cannot say who is advising President Fowler, except for Elizabeth Elliot, the National Security Advisor, with whom our ambassador is not impressed.”
“You tell me, then, that this weak, vain man is probably not getting good advice from anyone?”
“Yes.”
“That explains much.” Narmonov leaned back and closed his eyes. “So, I am the only one who can give him good advice, but he probably thinks I am the one who killed his city. Splendid.” It was perhaps the most penetrating analysis of the night, but wrong.
PRESIDENT F OWLER:
FIRST OF ALL, I HAVE DISCUSSED THIS MATTER WITH MY MILITARY COMMANDERS AND HAVE BEEN ASSURED THAT NO SOVIET ATOMIC WARHEAD IS MISSING.
SECOND, WE HAVE MET, YOU AND I, AND I HOPE YOU KNOW THAT I WOULD NEVER HAVE GIVEN SUCH A CRIMINAL ORDER AS THIS.
THIRD, ALL OF OUR ORDERS TO OUR MILITARY FORCES HAVE BEEN OF A DEFENSIVE NATURE. I HAVE AUTHORIZED NO OFFENSIVE ACTION WHATEVER.
FOURTH, I HAVE ALSO MADE INQUIRIES WITH OUR INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, AND I REGRET TO INFORM YOU THAT WE TOO HAVE NO IDEA WHO COULD HAVE COMMITTED THIS INHUMAN ACT. WE WILL WORK TO CHANGE THAT, AND ANY INFORMATION WE DEVELOP WILL BE SENT TO YOU AT ONCE.
MR. P RESIDENT, I WILL GIVE NO FURTHER ORDERS TO MY FORCES OF ANY KIND UNLESS PROVOKED. THE SOVIET MILITARY IS IN A DEFENSIVE POSTURE AND WILL REMAIN SO.
“Oh, God,” Elliot rasped. “How many lies do we have here?” Her finger traced down the computer screen.
'One, we know that they have missing warheads. That is a lie.
'Two, why is he stressing the fact that it's really him, that you two met in Rome? Why bother doing that unless he thinks that we suspect it's not Narmonov at all? The real guy wouldn't do that, he wouldn't have to, would he? Probably a lie.
'Three, we know that they've attacked us in Berlin. That's a lie.
'Four, he brings up the KGB for the first time. I wonder why. What if they actually have a cover plan… after intimidating us — beautiful, after intimidating us, they offer us their cover plan, and we have to buy it.
“Five, now he's warning us not to provoke him. They're in a 'defensive posture,' eh? Some posture.” Liz paused. “Robert, this is spin-control pure and simple. He's trying to take us out.”
“That's the way I read it, too. Comments, anyone?”
“The non-provocation statement is troubling,” CINC-SAC replied. General Fremont was watching his status boards. He now had ninety-six bombers in the air, and over a hundred tankers. His missile fields were on line. The Defense Support Program satellites had their Cassegrain-focus telescopic cameras zoomed in on the Soviet missile fields instead of on wide-field scanning mode. “Mr. President, there is something we need to discuss right about now.”
“What is that, General?”
Fremont spoke in his best calm-professional voice. 'Sir, the builddown of the respective strategic-missile forces on both sides has affected the calculus of a nuclear strike. Before, when we had over a thousand ICBMs, neither we nor the Soviets ever expected that a disarming first-strike was a real strategic possibility. It just demanded too much. Things are different now. Improvements in missile technology plus the reduction in the number of fixed high-value targets now means that such a strike is a theoretical possibility. Add to that Soviet delays in deactivating their older SS-18s to comply with the strategic-arms treaty, and we have what may well be a strategic posture on their part in which such a strike may be an attractive option. Remember that we've been reducing our missile stocks faster than they. Now, I know that Narmonov gave you a personal assurance that he'd
