Debt of Honor

back, fine. I don't especially want to kill anybody. But if I were in their shoes, I would not give those islands back. They need them for Phase Two, and if that happens, even if the Russians don't go nuke…'

A giant step backwards, Ryan thought. A new alliance of sorts, one that could stretch from the Arctic Circle to Australia. Three countries with nuclear capacity, a huge resource base, massive economies, and the political will to use violence to achieve their ends. The Nineteenth Century all over, played on a far larger field. Economic competition backed by force, the classic formula for unending war.

'Jack?' the President asked again.

Ryan nodded slowly. 'I think we have to. You can pick any reason you want. They all come out the same way.'

'Approved.'

37—Going Deep

'Normalcy' was the word the various commentators consistently used, usually with adjectives like 'eerie' and/or 'reassuring' to describe the week's routine. People on the political left were gratified that the government was using diplomatic means to address the crisis, while those on the political right were enraged that the White House was low-keying everything. Indeed, it was the absence of leadership, and the absence of real policy statements that showed everyone that Roger Durling was a domestic-policy president who didn't have much of a clue on how to handle international crises. Further criticism found its way to the National Security Advisor, John P. Ryan, who, though he had supposedly good credentials in intelligence, had never really established himself as a player in national-security matters per se, and certainly was not taking a very forceful position now. Others found his circumspection admirable. The downsizing of the American military, pundits observed, made effective counteraction extremely difficult at best, and though lights remained on at the Pentagon throughout the nights, there obviously was no way to deal with the situation in the Marianas. As a result, other observers said in front of any TV camera with a red light, the Administration would do its best to appear to remain calm and steady while doing the best it could. Hence the illusion of normalcy to conceal the inherent weakness of the American position.

'You ask us to do nothing?' Golovko asked in exasperation.

'It's our battle to fight. If you move too soon, it alerts China, and it alerts Japan.' Besides, Ryan could not add, what can you do? The Russian military was in far worse shape than America's. They could move additional aircraft to Eastern Siberia. Moving ground troops to firm up the light-strength formations of border guards could well trigger a Chinese response.

'Your satellites are telling you the same thing ours are, Sergey. China isn't mobilizing.'

'Yet.' The single word had a sting to it.

'Correct. Not yet. And if we play our cards right, that won't happen.'

Ryan paused. 'Any further information on the missiles?'

'We have several sites under surveillance,' Golovko reported. 'We have confirmed that the rockets at Yoshinobu are being used for civilian purposes. That is probably a cover for military testing, but nothing more than that. My technical people are quite confident.'

'Don't you just love how confident they can be,' Ryan observed.

'What are you going to do, Jack?' the Chairman of the RVS asked directly.

'Even as we speak, Sergey Nikolay'ch, we are telling them that their occupation of the islands is not acceptable.' Jack paused for a breath and reminded himself that like it or not, he had to trust the man. 'And if they don't leave on their own, we'll find a way to force them off.'

'But how?' the man demanded, looking down at the estimates prepared by military experts in the nearby Defense Ministry.

'Ten, fifteen years ago, did you tell your political masters that we were worthy of your fear?'

'As you did of us,' Golovko confirmed.

'We are more fortunate now. They don't fear us. They think they've already won. I cannot say more at the moment. Perhaps by tomorrow,' Jack thought. 'For now, instructions are on the way for you to relay to our people.'

'It will be done,' Sergey promised.

'My government will honor the wishes of the people on all of the islands,' the Ambassador repeated, then added a new provision. 'We also may be willing to discuss the difference in status between Guam and the rest of the Mariana Archipelago. American interest in that island does go back nearly a hundred years,' he allowed for the first time.

Adler accepted the statement impassively, as the rules of the proceedings required. 'Mr. Ambassador, the people of all those islands are American citizens. They are so by their own choice.'

'And they will again have the opportunity to express that choice. Is it the position of your government that self-determination is only allowed one time?' he asked in reply. 'That seems quite odd for a country with a tradition of easy immigration and emigration. As I have stated earlier, we will gladly permit dual citizenship for those natives who prefer to keep their American passports. We will compensate them for their property should they decide to leave, and…' The rest of his statement was the same.

As often as he had observed or engaged in it, diplomatic exchange, Adler thought, combined the worst aspects of explaining things to a toddler and talking with a mother-in-law. It was dull. It was tedious. It was exasperating. And it was necessary. A moment earlier, Japan had conceded something. It hadn't been unexpected. Cook had wheedled the information out of Nagumo the previous week, but now it was on the table. That was the good news. The had news was that he was now expected to offer something in return. The rules of diplomatic exchange were based on compromise. You never got all of what you wanted, and you never gave the other guy all of what he wanted. The problem was that diplomacy assumed that neither side would ever be forced to give away anything of vital interest—and that both sides recognized what those vital interests were. But so often they didn't, and then diplomacy was fated to fail, much to the chagrin of those who falsely believed that wars were always the product of inept diplomats. Much more often they were the result of national interests so incompatible that compromise simply was not possible. And so now the Ambassador expected Adler to give just a little ground.

'Speaking for myself, I am gratified that you acknowledge the unconditional rights of the Guamian people to remain American citizens. I am further pleased to note that your country allow the people of the Northern Marianas to determine their own destiny. Do you assure me that your country will abide by the results of the election?'

'I believe we have made that clear,' the Ambassador replied, wondering if he'd just won something or not.

'And the elections will be open to—'

'All residents of the islands, of course. My country believes in universal suffrage, as does yours. In fact,' he added, 'we will make an additional concession. In Japan the vote comes at age twenty, but for the purposes of this election, we will lower the voting age to eighteen. We want no one to protest that the plebiscite is unfair in any way.'

You clever bastard, Adler thought. It made such good sense, too. All the soldiers there could now vote, and the move would look just ducky to international observers. The Deputy Secretary of State nodded as though surprised, then made a note on his pad. Across the table, the Ambassador made a mental note that he'd just scored a point of his own. It had taken long enough.

'It's real simple,' the National Security Advisor said. 'Will you help us?'

The rules of the meeting were not calculated to make anyone happy It had begun with an explanation from a Justice Department lawyer of how the Espionage Act, Title 18 United States Code, Section 79. It applied to all American citizens, and how the freedoms of speech and the press did not extend to violation of that statute.

'You're asking us to help you lie,' one of the senior journalists said.

'Exactly right,' Ryan responded.

'We have a professional obligation—'

'You're American citizens,' Jack reminded them. 'So are the people on those islands. My job is not to exercise the rights you're thinking about now. My job is to guarantee those rights to you and everyone else in this country.