Threat Vector

most difficult day.”

“How so? I see nothing but success. The Americans are moving a carrier from the western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean. This is their response to our sinking of the Taiwanese warship? You do see, don’t you, that they are afraid?” Su chuckled. “They are on a war footing in the Indian Ocean.” Su chuckled at what he saw as a feeble, empty attempt by the Americans to flex their muscles.

“Why was the ship sunk?”

“One thing leads to another in any military conflict.”

“I am not a soldier, not a sailor. Tell me what you mean by that.”

“I will boil down the events quite simply. We have been exercising our muscularity in the air over the strait as a precursor to naval actions there. This has led to dozens of air-to-air encounters with the Taiwanese and the Americans. We ordered the American aircraft carrier to move back, and they did so, but now we have found out they snuck American pilots, like spies, onto Taiwan. To retaliate for this, our submarines have laid some mines, and in so doing there was a conflict with a Taiwanese vessel. We destroyed the vessel. That is where we stand at present.”

Wei realized Su would show no contrition for the reckless escalation of events.

Wei said, “But there is more to the story, is there not? I am learning of the cyberattacks in the United States from my advisers who are watching American television. Do you still maintain these will not be attributed to the People’s Republic of China?”

“I do.”

“How can you possibly say that? On the day you make threats of reprisals to the Americans, suddenly a very powerful computer attack damages their military and civilian infrastructure. Obviously, this was China’s doing.”

“Obvious? Yes, I will grant you that. But attributable? No. There is no proof.”

Wei raised his voice: “Do you think Jack Ryan wants to take us before a magistrate?”

Su chuckled again. “No, Wei. He wants to see China in ashes. But he won’t do anything but put a few pilots on Taiwan and sail his vulnerable ships out of range of our ballistic missiles. This is exactly what we wanted. Ryan will show a little bluster, but he will see his battle is lost before it has begun.”

“Why was it necessary to take such drastic steps? Why not attack the military networks only?”

“Wei, I’ve told you before, my experts inform me that in the very near future, inside of two years, perhaps, the United States will have a much more defendable electronic communications architecture. We have to act now, to escalate quickly. The Americans refer to it as ‘shock and awe.’ It is the only way forward.”

“But what will the Americans do to us?”

Su had been expecting the question. “If we control the Taiwan Strait, as well as most of the SCS, the American response will be limited.”

“Limited?”

“Of course. Their carriers will be nowhere near any military activity. They know that our coastal anti-ship batteries can destroy them.”

“So they will not attack?”

“They will do what they can to protect Taiwan, but they understand that is a fool’s errand. We can launch fifteen hundred missiles a day from our coast, to say nothing of our Air Force and Navy. They will back down.”

“We misjudged Ryan before. Are you misjudging him now?”

“I told you, comrade. I fully expect an American response.” He paused. “And I fully expect it to fail.

“We will not allow China to lose power on any front during the next five years. We will overcome our current crises and we will grow, but we will not do it without some near-term sacrifice. It would be naive to imagine that President Ryan, a warmonger of the highest order, will simply respond with some sort of diplomatic or economic reprisals. Some continued armed response is inevitable.”

“What sort of armed response?”

“The PLA has been working on the answer to this question for some time. Our think tanks in Washington are actively involved in the evaluation of the Ryan administration, looking for signals in policy that can help discern just how far they will go.”

“Conclusions?”

“We have nothing to worry about.”

Wei then said, “Tell me about the Ryan Doctrine.”

Su paused. “The Ryan Doctrine is not relevant.”

“What do you know of it, Su?”

Su coughed into the phone, hesitating for a moment before responding: “President Ryan has said publicly, and he has proven this by his deeds, that he holds the leadership of his enemies responsible for their actions. Personally responsible. Ryan is a monster. He has ordered the decapitation of governments. The assassination of leaders.” Su laughed into the phone. “It that the reason behind your reluctance? Are you personally afraid of what Jack Ryan will do to you?”

“Of course not.”

“You have nothing to worry about, comrade.”

“I am not worried.”

“Then why did you bring it up?”

The line was silent for a moment as both men raged internally. Eventually Wei spoke; his words were clipped and tight as he tried to keep from shouting. “I am an economist, and I see that we are doing more damage to our relationships than the business environment can sustain. What you are doing, the speed and intensity with which you are pushing the aggression, will force war, and it will destroy our economy.”

“And backing down now won’t?” Su shouted at Wei, having no filter of charm with which to blunt the expression of his anger. “You have pushed us across a bridge and burned it down! There is no turning back now! We have to see this through!”

“I have done that? I have?”

“Of course. You sanctioned my operation, and you are afraid to sit quietly and wait for Ryan to run away.”

Wei said, “President Ryan will not run from a fight.”

Su said, “He will run, because if he does not, then he will witness a nuclear detonation in Taipei, and the threat of further strikes in Seoul, Tokyo, and Hawaii. Trust me, if it comes to it, America will have no choice but to back off.”

“You are mad!”

“You were mad to think that you could blow navies out of the water while offering free-trade agreements to offset the damage. You only see the world as an economist. I promise you, Wei, that the world is not about business. The world is about struggle and force.”

Wei said nothing.

“We will discuss this in person when I come on Thursday. But understand this: I will address the Standing Committee, and they will back me. You should stay aligned with me, Wei. Our good relationship has served you in the recent past, and you would do well to remember that.”

The call ended, and President Wei took several minutes to compose himself. He sat silently in his office, his hands on the blotter of his desk. Finally he pushed the button on his phone that connected him to his secretary.

“Yes, General Secretary?”

“Connect me with the President of the United States.”

SIXTY-SEVEN

President Jack Ryan held the phone to his ear and listened to the translator quickly and effortlessly convert the Mandarin into English. The conversation had already been going for several minutes, and Jack had endured a lecture in economics and history from the Chinese president. Wei said, “You made Thailand and the Philippines