Threat Vector

A valet served tea for both men, offered nothing to the two secretaries, and then left them alone.

Wei had given Su a week to work with his intelligence staff to adopt a plan to project their power further into the South China Sea as the opening move of Wei’s gambit to absorb Hong Kong and Taiwan. He knew that Su would have slept little, eaten little, and thought about nothing else in the interim.

Su had been thinking about sending men, ships, and planes into the South China Sea for more than a decade, after all.

As they sat down for their meeting, Chairman Su held his report in his hand. A second copy was carried by Xia, Su’s second-in-command, and Wei thought he would be given one of the reports to look over while they discussed it.

But before he handed over the document, Chairman Su said, “Tongzhi, recently you were almost thrown from power because you spoke the truth to those around you, the truth was difficult to hear, and those around you would not listen to it.”

Wei agreed with a nod.

“I now find myself in a position similar to the one you found yourself in. You have laid out a five-year plan to bring the nation back to a strength and glory not enjoyed in generations. Reluctantly, however, I have to tell you about some aspects of our current military situation that will make your five-year plan difficult, if not impossible.”

Wei cocked his head in surprise. “The objectives I seek are not going to be won through military power alone. I only need military support in controlling the area. Are we not as strong as the annual reports have led us to believe?”

Su waved this away with his hand. “We are strong, militarily. The strongest we have ever been, overall. Twenty percent growth in expenditures over the past two decades have built our land, sea, air, and space capabilities greatly.”

After this, Su heaved a sigh.

“Then tell me what troubles you.”

“I fear our strength is at its greatest point right now, right this moment, but our strength will soon wane relative to our adversaries’.”

Wei did not understand. He was on shaky ground with matters of a military nature. “Why will it wane?”

Su paused long enough for Wei to understand that he would not answer the question immediately or directly. The explanation he would deliver would involve some background. “We can, beginning tomorrow morning, eliminate any opposition in our region. But that is not what we need. We must prepare to combat one adversary, and one adversary only. Once we neutralize this foe, the rest of our potential conflicts will be won before they are even fought.”

Wei said, “You think the United States will involve itself in our forays into the South China Sea?”

“I am certain of it, comrade.”

“And our military capability—”

“I will be frank with you. Our conventional capability is, overall, a shadow of that of the United States. In virtually every category, number of weapons, quality of equipment, training of forces, down to the last ship, aircraft, tank, truck, and sleeping bag, the Americans have superior equipment. They have also spent the last ten years fighting, while we have spent it training.”

Wei’s face hardened. “It sounds like our nation has been poorly served by our military during the two- decade-long modernization.”

Su was not angered by this comment. Instead he nodded. “That is the other side of the coin. This is the good news. Many aspects of our strategic modernization have been successful.

“We have a great advantage in one war-fighting discipline. In any conflict with any adversary, it is a given fact that we will possess complete and utter information dominance.

“Chairman Mao’s army, the army that your father and my father served in, has been replaced by something greater. Mechanized C4ISR. Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. We are well resourced, well connected, well organized. And our forces are in place for an immediate attack.”

“Attack? You are speaking of cyberwarfare?”

“Cyberwarfare and cyberespionage, communications between systems and forces to optimize their effect. The complete informationization of the battle space. We are the betters of the Americans by a wide margin.”

Wei said, “You told me you had bad news. This sounds like good news.”

“The bad news, General Secretary, is that the timetable you asked me to support with my military is unrealistic.”

“But we must do this within the close of the party conference, within five years. Any longer and our leadership roles will diminish, and we cannot be certain that—”

“You misunderstand me,” said the chairman. “I am saying there is no way we can take more than one year to achieve our objectives. You see, this new capability is our only real, true, tactical advantage over the Americans. And it is an incredible advantage. But it will wane. The Americans are building their cyberdefenses quickly, and their country and their forces are quick to adapt in the face of adversity. The U.S. network defense, at this moment, is based primarily on reactive controls. But America’s Cyber Command is quickly changing that, and they are changing the landscape for the future of warfare. President Ryan has increased all resources for Cyber Command, and it will soon have an effect on our capabilities.”

Wei understood. “You are saying the time to use this is now?”

“The window will close, and I fear it will not reopen. Ever again. America is catching up. Bills are moving along in their Congress that will modernize their domestic computer infrastructure. President Ryan’s administration is taking the matter seriously. If we slowly trickle out our… your program for expansion, we will disadvantage ourselves greatly.”

“You want to begin immediately.”

“We must begin immediately. We must reassert our belief that the South China Sea territory is a core interest of China, and we must push for control of the sea now. Within days, not weeks, we must strengthen our patrols down to the Strait of Malacca and begin moving naval and marine forces to the Spratlys and Huangyan Island. I can land forces on some of the uninhabited islands within the week. It is all in the report. Then we must announce our new relationship with Hong Kong, and begin the blockade with Taiwan, all in the next six months. In a year, with our aggressive and forward-thinking attitude apparent to all, we will have met all our goals and the Americans will be too busy licking their own wounds to stop us.”

Wei thought it over for a moment. “America is the only strategic threat?”

“Yes. Especially with Jack Ryan in the White House. Just as in our war with Russia, he is a problem once again. Not only from the direct threat of his military, but also in the bluster we are seeing from our neighbors. They tell themselves that China will do nothing against any ally of America as long as Ryan is in power.”

Wei said, “Because he defeated us so soundly during the last war.”

Su took issue with this. “It is debatable that he defeated us. The Russians were involved as well, you might remember.”

Wei put up a hand in apology. “True, although I also remember that we attacked Russia.”

Su said flatly, “We did not attack the United States. Even so, that was seven years ago, and still the American Navy routinely patrols the East China Sea, close to our waters. They have just sold another nine billion dollars’ worth of military hardware to Taiwan. They threaten us with their access to the region. I do not have to tell you that eighty percent of the oil we use to fuel our nation comes through the Strait of Malacca, and the United States could threaten that flow with a carrier battle group. We must go on the offensive against them in order for your plan to succeed.”

Wei did not know much about military matters, but this fact was well known to everyone in the Politburo.

“But if we initiate hostilities, Ryan will—”

Su said, “Comrade. We will initiate hostilities without Ryan knowing we are initiating hostilities. We can do this without revealing ourselves as the aggressors.”

Wei sipped tea. “Some sort of computer attack?”